December 2022

[winterwx21]

Not surprisingly the 12zCMC backed down on sunday's event. Now keeps most of the accumulating snow north of NYC like the other models. 

[LibertyBell]

11 minutes ago, bluewave said:

While March 1993 was a unique case, it matches the general theme since the 1990s. The December to March storm tracks have shifted east over toward the warm pool. The main winter storm tracks since 2010 have been benchmark like Jan 16 or coastal hugger like Dec 2020. The NJ inland runner track hasn’t been as common. In fact, State College hasn’t had a 16”+ snowstorm since  since Feb 2003.

 

 

Sounds like you think the possibility of a BM track triple phaser has increased with climate change, maybe this is why you think we still have a chance to one day break our all time snowfall records.

 

[LibertyBell]

1 hour ago, Tatamy said:

March 1993 was a triple phaser.  I am not so sure that the presence of the warm pool off of the coast would have changed the track on that one.  

Triple phasers can track further east....there was one in 2004 or 2005 I think it was that hit Nova Scotia really hard.  One could argue that the tracks of triple phasers have been moving east with time if you track the historical progression of their storm tracks.

 

[LibertyBell]

1 hour ago, SnowGoose69 said:

you’d have to think if we go into a cold AMO soon that’ll change eventually  

it's not the same as before though, the cold AMO phase in the 80s featured much colder northern Atlantic SSTs.

 

[LibertyBell]

1 hour ago, jm1220 said:

You have the rare 12/16/20 or 3/14/17 storms that are good there but by and large it’s 1-3 or 2-4” type events. What clippers we still have dry up many times before getting there, lake effect does happen but is very rare when it’s more than a coating, SWFE events usually end up sleet/ZR fests there, coastal storms are too far east etc. They need the bigger miller A events like you said to make it to normal, and now we have way more miller B type storms. 

the early 00s were notable for big December snowfalls though

 

[SnoSki14]

9 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

Potentially breaching -4!!

 

Very significant. GFS going apeshit with the blocking 

[EastonSN+]

7 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

what's the record overall and for the month of December and for winter?  Looks like it's approaching -5 on that graphic!

 

That cutter around the 16th is what really drops that AO.

[LibertyBell]

2 hours ago, bluewave said:

Things get more interesting if we take a longer look at winter temperatures and seasonal snowfall at Islip since the early 1960s. There is decrease in snow cover days and an increase in total seasonal snowfall. Sharper warming trend with nearly double the number of winter 50° days. So quick warm ups after snowstorms have resulted in quick snowmelts after the storms.

 

 

 

But also much bigger snowfalls, I'll take that trade off

 

[bluewave]

4 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

it's not the same as before though, the cold AMO phase in the 80s featured much colder northern Atlantic SSTs.

 

Yeah, the NW Atlantic has warmed too much to allow SSTs as cold as the 1970s and 1980s.

 

 

[EastonSN+]

FWIW the storm track on the CMC and GFS are VERY close.

Whether mostly rain or not we shall see.

[LibertyBell]

2 hours ago, EastonSN+ said:

I dont think the last 10 years were that noticable.

I lived in Coastal CT my whole life, and although it feels like falls and December are much warmer, less snowy, I feel that March and April have gotten snowier. Heck we just had a trace of snow in May 3 years ago.

Now, my grandfather told of a time when they drove on part of Long island sound due to parts of it being frozen, so yes if you go back 100 years there is a definite change.

Warming and cooling is cyclical, and we are still emerging from the last mini ice age. 

Good link here. Quote below.

https://www.britannica.com/science/Little-Ice-Age

"Today some scientists use it to distinguish only the period 1500–1850, when mountain glaciers expanded to their greatest extent, but the phrase is more commonly applied to the broader period 1300–1850. The Little Ice Age followed the Medieval Warming Period (roughly 900–1300 CE) and preceded the present period of warming that began in the late 19th and early 20th centuries."

It's noticeable in urban areas where it's become much harder to get a big event in March

 

[Franklin0529]

Gfs an cmc close to something big. We track

[EastonSN+]

Just now, LibertyBell said:

It's noticeable in urban areas where it's become much harder to get a big event in March

 

Leaving the mini ice age and heading to another medieval warm period :() 

 

[LibertyBell]

2 hours ago, lee59 said:

Just seems like a very short time frame to make much of a conclusion.

The increase in big precip events (both rain and snow) is very noticeable.  

[EastonSN+]

Just now, bluewave said:

The 12z CMC is 5mb weaker than the 0z run. 

 

Yeah this is really looking close to December 2012. 

[EastonSN+]

That 18th through 22nd time period is oooozing with potential.

Colder air in place and rising AO/NAO from historic levels. 

That December 12 thing to me is noise.

[LibertyBell]

4 hours ago, bluewave said:

December 11-20 has been the snowiest part of the month in NYC since 2011. So it’s possible NYC could pick up its first snow of the season with this storm. Need a much stronger 500 mb low like the CMC to pick  up more than a T-2”.

Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Ending Date	Total Snowfall Dec 1 to Dec 10	Missing Count
2021-12-10	T	0
2020-12-10	T	0
2019-12-10	1.6	0
2018-12-10	0.0	0
2017-12-10	4.6	0
2016-12-10	0.0	0
2015-12-10	0.0	0
2014-12-10	1.0	0
2013-12-10	2.1	0
2012-12-10	0.0	0
2011-12-10	0.0	0

 

Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Ending Date	Total Snowfall Dec 11 to Dec 20	Missing Count
2021-12-20	0.0	0
2020-12-20	10.5	0
2019-12-20	0.9	0
2018-12-20	T	0
2017-12-20	2.4	0
2016-12-20	3.2	0
2015-12-20	0.0	0
2014-12-20	T	0
2013-12-20	6.5	0
2012-12-20	0.0	0
2011-12-20	0.0	0

 

Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Ending Date	Total Snowfall Dec 21 to Dec 31	Missing Count
2021-12-31	0.2	0
2020-12-31	0.0	0
2019-12-31	T	0
2018-12-31	T	0
2017-12-31	0.7	0
2016-12-31	T	0
2015-12-31	T	0
2014-12-31	T	0
2013-12-31	T	0
2012-12-31	0.4	0
2011-12-31	0.0	0

 

 

Wow the last third of December is MUCH worse than even the first third of the month!

 

[LibertyBell]

Just now, EastonSN+ said:

That 18th through 22nd time period is oooozing with potential.

Colder air in place and rising AO/NAO from historic levels. 

That December 12 thing to me is noise.

Think the index can get down to -5? Is that the lowest it's gotten in a long time?

 

[EastonSN+]

2 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Think the index can get down to -5? Is that the lowest it's gotten in a long time?

 

Don or Bluewave are better places to opine on that. I think Bluewave mentioned that 10/11 was -4. Block was better placed position wise that December.

[LibertyBell]

10 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Yeah, the NW Atlantic has warmed too much to allow SSTs as cold as the 1970s and 1980s.

 

 

This is exactly why the Maine lobster season is going out of business.

Decades ago it used to be the Long Island lobster season, then the lobsters migrated to Maine when our waters started to get warmer and now they are in Atlantic Canada.

 

[Rjay]

2 hours ago, psv88 said:

57 degrees at 9 am on December 7. Helluva way to run a pattern change 

It was always supposed to be warm this week.

1 hour ago, jm1220 said:

To be fair I can’t think of any mets who were calling for this Dec to be very cold and snowy. Unless you’re talking about JB and DT who I just ignore these days. 

A lot of mets were and still are expecting something significant the second half of this month.  I'm still on that train but it doesn't look as great as it once did. 

[bluewave]

14 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

Yeah this is really looking close to December 2012. 

Yeah, the 12z CMC really backed off 0z at the coast but the interior still does well. So it looks more like the Euro and GFS now. Really need a stronger closed low to get more than a T-2 or T-3 near the coast. Marginal cod air masses at the start require a very strong 500 mb closed low for rains to change to 4”+ snows at the coast this time of year. 
 

 

 

 

 

[SnoSki14]

I'm starting to like the 12th more. Really nice trends on the GEFS for the 5 day. 

It keeps pushing the ridge axis west and increasing troughiness on the coast. Not sure if it'll be enough but the blocking clearly slowing things down. 

You can actually see the modeling playing catch-up to the strong blocking.

[LibertyBell]

33 minutes ago, bluewave said:

While March 1993 was a unique case, it matches the general theme since the 1990s. The December to March storm tracks have shifted east over toward the warm pool. The main winter storm tracks since 2010 have been benchmark like Jan 16 or coastal hugger like Dec 2020. The NJ inland runner track hasn’t been as common. In fact, State College hasn’t had a 16”+ snowstorm since  since Feb 2003.

 

 

Was Feb 2003 the last time we had a snowstorm that delivered for most of the area?  Seems like storms like Jan 1996 and PD2 have become the ultimate unicorn in our pattern as most of our storms over the past decade or more have had haves and have nots and storms like Feb 1983, Jan 1996 and PD2 have become the rarest type of snowstorm.

Extreme snowfall totals, but very sharp cutoffs and much smaller total snowshield area....I wonder if anyone has done research on this and is this also related to the warm pool in the NW Atlantic?  I noticed two of the above three were in strong el ninos so maybe that also factors in, which makes Jan 1996 the outlier amongst outliers, but that was a la nina after an el nino, which are known to be very snowy too.

[MJO812]

2 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

I'm starting to like the 12th more. Really nice trends on the GEFS for the 5 day. 

It keeps pushing the ridge axis west and increasing troughiness on the coast. Not sure if it'll be enough but the blocking clearly slowing things down. 

You can actually see the modeling playing catch-up to the strong blocking.

Pattern looks great after the cutter 

[LibertyBell]

4 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Yeah, the 12z CMC really backed off 0z at the coast but the interior still does well. So it looks more like the Euro and GFS now. Really need a stronger closed low to get more than a T-2 or T-3 near the coast. Marginal air masses require a very strong 500 mb closed low for rains to change to 4”+ snows at the coast this time of year. 
 

 

 

 

 

It still somehow has 3.2" around Islip lol

 

[SnoSki14]

[LibertyBell]

Just now, MJO812 said:

Pattern looks great after the cutter 

What date is the cutter on? The 15th?

 

[bluewave]

2 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

It still somehow has 3.2" around Islip lol

 

Would make sense given how ISP has become the new snowfall capitol around the area.

[MJO812]

1 minute ago, LibertyBell said:

What date is the cutter on? The 15th?

 

Mid week