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December 2022 Obs/Disc


40/70 Benchmark
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2 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

On a actual serious note does anyone have any visibility to how long such a better pattern would last , it always seems like a weenie trap to me that some think any change will be prolonged , and while those things are possible (and will only be known further down the road ) how long is the general favorable period good for at this point. Do we have an idea or not really . Serious question as obviously the board is looking forward to it...be it the 6’th or the 9’th . We can’t really see past the 15’th can we ?

Weeklies aren’t giving much insights as they seem to break it down before it even happens lol. On the other hand those blocking patterns usually last over two weeks when it’s a big, stable feature. 
 

There is also a lot of other factors that go into sustaining a pattern like MJO etc.  During 2015 the forcing allowed our epic pattern to hang around for like 6-7 weeks. 

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These folks are fishing…And like I used to be, many are falling for it.  They hang the big fat fish out there, and folks get hooked. 
 

Kev knows what he’s doing…he’s facilitating conversation with the delayed ideas now, and before last night when he said he was all in, it was the skeptical ideas. He gets Will and Scott to chime in, and give their opinions, So that’s how that goes.
 

QgOmega is a troll plain and simple, and anybody else worrying about December 6/7 or December 8 or 9th is just a silly jokster. 

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2 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

These folks are fishing…And like I used to be, many are falling for it.  They hang the big fat fish out there, and folks get hooked. 
 

Kev knows what he’s doing…he’s facilitating conversation with the delayed ideas now, and before last night when he said he was all in, it was the skeptical ideas. He gets Will and Scott to chime in, and give their opinions, So that’s how that goes.
 

QgOmega is a troll plain and simple, and anybody else worrying about December 6/7 or December 8 or 9th is just a silly jokster. 

IMO I kind of want it pushed back a bit towards better climo. 

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2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

The pattern change to winter is coming. Have never wavered. Just needed to get it under 10 days on ens. The question has been and still remains .. how long is the delay and step down process . It’s that simple 

It is under 10 days. If you’re looking for actual snow threats, that’s TBD as it’s impossible to see confidently this far out. 

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31 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Weeklies aren’t giving much insights as they seem to break it down before it even happens lol. On the other hand those blocking patterns usually last over two weeks when it’s a big, stable feature. 
 

There is also a lot of other factors that go into sustaining a pattern like MJO etc.  During 2015 the forcing allowed our epic pattern to hang around for like 6-7 weeks. 

Thanks , i just think so many focus on when it will “begin” and they just want to assume it keeps going and going ..bc the duration is usually not mentioned , never mind in depth and that sets weenies up more more disappointments more often then the obsession with when “It flips” 

as get into the end of December we just need something serviceable and as long as we don’t have a pig or a cutter express lined up the board usually seems relatively happy 

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14 hours ago, ORH_wxman said:

Hard to say…rarer if you start 40 or 50 years ago as your baseline. There were a bunch of snowy Novembers in the 1980s…ironic considering the winters were mostly shit for snow. :lol:
 

But really prior to the 1970s isn’t impressive. 
 

2” or more Novembers in BOS by decade:

2010s: 1

2000s: 2

1990s: 2

1980s: 5

1970s: 3

1960s: 1

1950s: 1

1940s: 2

1930s: 3

1920s: 1

1910s: 1

1900s: 0

 

Early snow distribution like that is actually not that unusual enough to be "fascinating" really?  Not from my experience during later autumn into early winter climo over eastern N/A.   I mean, if we get to Feb 1 and it's still like that, sure.

I'll bet anyone dollars:  tipping the flow up the coast with warm gales, while a polar jet dives thru the mid west shows up in the event annul/catalogues fairly often from mid Novembers through Christmas.   I mean fwiw, I personally lose anecdotal count how many times I've seen trees leaning in turbine gusts ... bathing the MA and NE in 60 DPs, while wet snow was upsloping from WV to eastern KT.  It seems like the return rate on that is 1::4 if not 1::3 for years with that storm type. Just happened 2 winters ago on Xmas - although that's a bad example because we had already put snow down in a solid pack before that massacre took place.   My point is ... in the lesser extreme sense, just having the flow orientation favor the cold west, first, isn't "that" unusual.

In fact, ... I actually covet a kind of good feeling as a winter enthusiasts, whenever the trees lean - because I can recall enough occurrences where within a couple of weeks of those event types, hell broke lose. So much so that I've begun to unconsciously associate:  'ooh that means...' 

It's not a huge mystery why that were the case.   -EPO --> cutter and warm surge up the coast --> neutral EPO (+PNA) --> boom.  

 

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8 hours ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

2012 was like a dusting here and 2017 was less than an inch, I’d call it more like a coating, not even sure it was measurable. This are has done well overall, but definitely in a relative screw zone for that time period. Even just NW of here did better in 2017.

 

A quick search says we have a white Christmas here roughly 30% of the time, so it’s been a while 

Well we would have had it in 2020 if it was a day earlier lol. 
 

 

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I have to admit I am one of the posters that worry about how long the blocking holds before it even begins!

Hoping for something as long as 2018 or 2010/11, however I think those were SSWE driven?

One good sign is this MJO wave is getting into phase 8 at a higher amplitude than the last (and perhaps 1 at a low amplitude before dissipating).

 

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3 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

It’s under 10 days now as Scott has said, and the table looks to be set very very nicely.  The emerging question now is, how many potential guests(potential threats) will be coming to dinner at our beautifully set table?   Or will we be dining alone?  The answer is TBD.

I think for SNE any legit winter threat is closer to the 10th. Maybe some sort of mixed event prior? Just speculation.

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I can understand the 'frustration' - even though there really should not be based upon indicators, nor the content of what some have described in conveying those indicators.  

See ...one is dealing with a spectrum of approaches to this subject matter.  It's a bit of a philosophical perspective, but ownership of sophistication in any discipline ... unfortunately is typically going to be owned by a select few in the general human condition/group.  Those whom are either gifted, educated, or both. For the population density that makes up the bottom of the "pyramid", ...where is hootin' and hollerin' court yard din of the provincial pathos caries on,  the information becomes beautiful art. 

Sideways insults aside, ...when these tools begin to illustrate x-7-q out in a-b-c time range, ... then lets the pyramid mull around with it, they are going to get a pallet of colorful interpretations going, and among those will be impatient hues.

I'm being tongue in cheek...  Seriously, I would not imagine given the 'indicators' and techniques that much occurs before ~ Dec 5.  I mentioned yesterday that there might be a correction event signaled between the 5th and the 10th of Dec.  It's still out there... The +1.5 delta in the PNA is what that is based upon, but not just that... Doing so just after there has been a -30 C 850 mb loading event as far S as southern Saskatchewan, Manitoba and western Ontario ... sort of makes the assumption of volatility an easy make.    It doesn't have to create a bomb... It can all manifest in different ways.  

It's just that it's 7+ days away     

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