Maxwell03 Posted November 8, 2022 Share Posted November 8, 2022 56 minutes ago, Normandy said: Not gonna lie looks much better than I thought it would this early. Curiously watching today to see how it unfolds, these WSW moving storms can have interesting results intensity wise. Yeah agreed, it doesn’t look half bad for a TC in November. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted November 8, 2022 Share Posted November 8, 2022 Indeed, looks pretty darn good all of a sudden Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cptcatz Posted November 8, 2022 Share Posted November 8, 2022 Anyone know when the next low level recon is? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Akeem the African Dream Posted November 8, 2022 Share Posted November 8, 2022 evacuation for zone a and b in palm beach county Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scott747 Posted November 8, 2022 Share Posted November 8, 2022 14 minutes ago, cptcatz said: Anyone know when the next low level recon is? Should be taking off soon and making a pass or two before this afternoon's package. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted November 8, 2022 Share Posted November 8, 2022 45 kt surface winds recorded 200 miles or so West of the center (from the upper level recon flight), this thing is really starting to expand Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted November 8, 2022 Share Posted November 8, 2022 Already has the look of a high end TS/marginal hurricane 65-75 mph status. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Modfan2 Posted November 8, 2022 Share Posted November 8, 2022 10 minutes ago, Akeem the African Dream said: evacuation for zone a and b in palm beach county Saw the draw bridge for Hobe Sound also closed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed, snow and hurricane fan Posted November 8, 2022 Share Posted November 8, 2022 An eye starting to form? 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan11295 Posted November 8, 2022 Share Posted November 8, 2022 One of the bigger issues with Nicole is many eastern beaches took a beating from Ian. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tezeta Posted November 8, 2022 Share Posted November 8, 2022 11 minutes ago, Ed, snow and hurricane fan said: An eye starting to form? Perfect one bander too. That’s going to help it consolidate power quicker. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted November 8, 2022 Share Posted November 8, 2022 27 minutes ago, Ed, snow and hurricane fan said: An eye starting to form? Yeah, I'm pretty curious what recon finds later today. The high-altitude mission has winds around 50 - 55 knots well to the north of the center, so I'd imagine 60 knots wouldn't be too crazy for inside the RMW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed, snow and hurricane fan Posted November 8, 2022 Share Posted November 8, 2022 Looks like the storm is starting to push a bit off outflow from the S side despite the shear. (Which per CIMMS analysis isn't that bad now) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prismshine Productions Posted November 8, 2022 Share Posted November 8, 2022 4pm55kts (65mph)990mbW@10mphSent from my SM-S102DL using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheGhostOfJohnBolaris Posted November 8, 2022 Share Posted November 8, 2022 6 minutes ago, Sandstorm94 said: 4pm 55kts (65mph) 990mb W@10mph Sent from my SM-S102DL using Tapatalk As of 18z GFS yesterday had landfall at 990. Woops. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jconsor Posted November 8, 2022 Share Posted November 8, 2022 With the huge wind field, there is the potential for historic storm surge flooding in NE FL and coastal GA: 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted November 8, 2022 Share Posted November 8, 2022 What do the tide cycles look like? I know we had a full moon last night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed, snow and hurricane fan Posted November 8, 2022 Share Posted November 8, 2022 3 minutes ago, wxeyeNH said: What do the tide cycles look like? I know we had a full moon last night. I'm guessing two days off the full moon, there will still be an above normal tidal influence on surge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed, snow and hurricane fan Posted November 8, 2022 Share Posted November 8, 2022 IR suggests partial eye open on the East/Northeast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TPAwx Posted November 8, 2022 Share Posted November 8, 2022 18z GFS a bit SW of 12z as the system heads across the peninsula. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prismshine Productions Posted November 8, 2022 Share Posted November 8, 2022 About a 200mi TS wind field...jesh...Sent from my SM-S102DL using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheGhostOfJohnBolaris Posted November 8, 2022 Share Posted November 8, 2022 6 minutes ago, TPAwx said: 18z GFS a bit SW of 12z as the system heads across the peninsula. Gives Tampa the northern part of the storm.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prismshine Productions Posted November 8, 2022 Share Posted November 8, 2022 Recon is nowhere near the center yet and pressure is already 997mb...Sent from my SM-S102DL using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Normandy Posted November 8, 2022 Share Posted November 8, 2022 Two things I am watching with this storm: 1) The structure is already such that it seems to be on the cusp of Hurricane intensity. I am wondering if intensity wise models are busting low 2) The motions of such storms under strong High pressure systems tend to trend more south than modeled (Ike, Andrew, Katrina, etc). If i were to make a call based on the state of the storm now and the two thoughts above: I say just north of Miami for landfall with Category 2 intensity. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TPAwx Posted November 8, 2022 Share Posted November 8, 2022 5 minutes ago, TheGhostOfJohnBolaris said: Gives Tampa the northern part of the storm.. That track is just far enough offshore to throw some fetch up the bays. Could be some flooding on top of the full moon tides that catch people off guard here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prismshine Productions Posted November 8, 2022 Share Posted November 8, 2022 What concerns me is people not taking the flooding threat seriously...Sent from my SM-S102DL using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Richie Posted November 8, 2022 Share Posted November 8, 2022 6 minutes ago, Normandy said: Two things I am watching with this storm: 1) The structure is already such that it seems to be on the cusp of Hurricane intensity. I am wondering if intensity wise models are busting low 2) The motions of such storms under strong High pressure systems tend to trend more south than modeled (Ike, Andrew, Katrina, etc). If i were to make a call based on the state of the storm now and the two thoughts above: I say just north of Miami for landfall with Category 2 intensity. By just north of Miami you mean 75 miles to the north in Palm Beach County? Because neither Dade nor are Broward are in the cone. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prismshine Productions Posted November 8, 2022 Share Posted November 8, 2022 980.2 EXTRAP... What a pressure drop!Sent from my SM-S102DL using Tapatalk 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted November 8, 2022 Share Posted November 8, 2022 Recon finds a pressure of 980 mb or so and supports winds of 55-60 kts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prismshine Productions Posted November 8, 2022 Share Posted November 8, 2022 Recon finds a pressure of 980 mb or so and supports winds of 55-60 ktsEasily 55ktsSent from my SM-S102DL using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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