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November 2022


Stormlover74
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1 minute ago, EasternLI said:

Here's something pretty cool. 12z eps at the end. Doesn't look very inspiring locally. But it's interesting nonetheless, as the next step from Ural Blocking would be a -NAO/Cold siberia pattern. Which is pretty much this:

1309413964_index(53).thumb.png.b37cd61c2828d9030f4ee72d452251e0.png

We can definitely score in that look.

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Well yeah, but my point is, December SSW follows that look if we follow the Ural Blocking playbook. 

It’s favorable, however, the twitterologists are sharing the wrong MJO phase 8 composites. They are sharing +ENSO composites which features +PNA, the correct composites, which is -ENSO, December, MJO 8, show the -PNA/RNA which is to be expected in the current -ENSO background state, especially with a firmly entrenched, healthy La Niña like we have now. It’s still favorable (-AO/-NAO, -EPO/-WPO), however the -PNA obviously supports the western troughing seen on the ensembles
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5 minutes ago, snowman19 said:


It’s favorable, however, the twitterologists are sharing the wrong MJO phase 8 composites. They are sharing +ENSO composites which features +PNA, the correct composites, which is -ENSO, December, MJO 8, show the -PNA/RNA which is to be expected in the current -ENSO background state, especially with a firmly entrenched, healthy La Niña like we have now. It’s still favorable (-AO/-NAO, -EPO/-WPO), however the -PNA obviously supports the western troughing seen on the ensembles

Well stop looking at them, then lol

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La nina has been taking shots from the high AAM state (el nino like). Westerly wind has been punching holes in the trades. That didn't happen at all last year. What looks like a strengthening la nina trade burst upcoming, looks to be related to the jet extension at that time. Amplifying the return flow in that period. We'll see what happens after that.

eps_u850_anom_hov_equatorial_2022112312.thumb.png.bf70245ade2cb44efe7961e51c4d73e8.png

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Under abundant sunshine, the mercury soared into the middle and even upper 50s today. Tomorrow will be slightly cooler, but still mild. The weekend could see some rainfall, along with continued mild readings. Overall, temperatures will generally be near to above normal through the remainder of November.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.3°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.8°C for the week centered around November 16. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -1.62°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.92°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist into the winter.

The SOI was +4.83 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.117 today.

On November 21 the MJO was in Phase 6 at an amplitude of 1.162 (RMM). The November 20-adjusted amplitude was 1.107 (RMM).

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 97% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal November (1991-2020 normal). November will likely finish with a mean temperature near 50.1° (2.1° above normal).

 

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19 hours ago, SnowGoose69 said:

LOL, FOK airport is 20 degrees colder than HWV and 26 colder than E Hampton...I have seen those differences between there and NYC but never the 2 closest airports 

A car ride between those places would be interesting.

Would the windows fog up approaching FOK and then clear up again as you go east?

 

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21 hours ago, bluewave said:

The long range models have a pretty wide spread by the first week of December. The EPS is the only model to have a more favorable Pacific pattern. It is showing  height rises along the West Coast which is different from the typical La Niña. The GEFS and GEPS maintain a La Niña trough near the west coast. So we probably need to wait for the models to settle down before buying into any scenario. This is especially true with how much the models have been jumping from run to run with the storm for Friday that got pushed back to Sunday. So if the models can’t even handle a 5 day forecast, then a week 2 forecast may not be very accurate either.

 

3AC09AEA-B426-4BC5-91FC-E4508457D650.thumb.png.2d88efcebb32c787ec45690f0ce03d8d.png
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5F4E05BA-553D-40D9-ABD5-767E04F4E7E4.thumb.png.da4c47ad39573d744a57c62cbd24070a.png

 

Why are the models so bad?

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1 hour ago, LibertyBell said:

Why are the models so bad?

Until we fully develop quantum computing its impossible to handle the amount of calculations necessary to handle long range forecasting. I’m sure we will get there one day, but that’s decades away. 
Heat island was in full effect this morning, icy car when I left Lynbrook for work at 5, almost feels warm in the city in comparison. 

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17 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Exciting times ahead....I wonder how the winters usually go when we get an SSW this early?

Happy Thanksgiving !!!!

 

Happy Thanksgiving :)

December SSW could, theoretically, offer up a -AO winter. Instead of when it happens in February and spring is ruined. We'll see what happens. Many question marks but really interesting. I remember reading somewhere how, should one occur, la nina and WQBO favors downward coupling too. Having trouble finding that paper right now though. 

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15 minutes ago, qg_omega said:

Just a few days ago every Monday had a strong storm possibly undergoing rapid deepening.  Literally every model plus ensembles

We went from a record -EPO +PNA to a +EPO -PNA in just a few days. So models have a had time figuring out the individual shortwave details. Plus we are getting a 5 sigma Pacific Jet near Alaska.

 

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Morning thoughts…

Today will be partly sunny and mild. High temperatures will reach the lower and middle 50s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include:

New York City (Central Park): 53°

Newark: 56°

Philadelphia: 58°

The remainder of November will be generally milder than normal.

Normals:

New York City: 30-Year: 51.1°; 15-Year: 51.3°

Newark: 30-Year: 51.8°; 15-Year: 52.1°

Philadelphia: 30-Year: 52.8°; 15-Year: 53.1°

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