EdutateGA Posted September 20, 2022 Share Posted September 20, 2022 Flying over a hurricane in a properly equipped commercial aircraft and with ATC guidance (in addition to meteorologists) is not common but also not “ill-advised”. Can promise that the route was very well-advised on by professionals that do this on a daily basis (ie.: any type of weather potentially poses flight hazards). Case in point: look at Delta 431 that outraced Irma as it hit PR. That was legit a masterclass in routing around weather (and getting an aircraft quickly turned around for departure). . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whineminster Posted September 20, 2022 Share Posted September 20, 2022 15 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: Very close to our first major of the season. Very impressive period of intensification today. Hopefully coming our way, keep up hope! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted September 20, 2022 Share Posted September 20, 2022 1 minute ago, Whineminster said: Hopefully coming our way, keep up hope! This looks legit for Atlantic Canada. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MattPetrulli Posted September 20, 2022 Share Posted September 20, 2022 Satellite appearance, specifically the eye, has degraded somewhat since earlier with a contracting eye, but could be due to towers maybe? Maybe EWRC but not much evidence of a secondary eyewall. Recon about to pass through so we'll see if it's steady or intensifying still. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted September 20, 2022 Share Posted September 20, 2022 Satellite appearance, specifically the eye, has degraded somewhat since earlier with a contracting eye, but could be due to towers maybe? Maybe EWRC but not much evidence of a secondary eyewall. Recon about to pass through so we'll see if it's steady or intensifying still. Hot towers are firing against the 300 mb flow. It's a light shear essentially, so mid-level cloud debris is sinking into the eye. The positive ventilation to the north is outpacing the negative counter vector flow from the southwest. I'd call this favorable for a strengthening major hurricane, but perhaps not a perfect envelope until the hurricane turns more northerly. All in all, a period of RI tonight or in the morning remains quite possible. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted September 20, 2022 Share Posted September 20, 2022 Hot towers are firing against the 300 mb flow. It's a light shear essentially, so mid-level cloud debris is sinking into the eye. The positive ventilation to the north is outpacing the negative counter vector flow from the southwest. I'd call this favorable for a strengthening major hurricane, but perhaps not a perfect envelope until the hurricane turns more northerly. All in all, a period of RI tonight or in the morning remains quite possible.This is actually easier to see via AVN as you can better make out the -80C/coldest tops. Notice all the GLM lightning detections with each convective burst/tower going up around the northern eyewall to reach highest altitude in the western to southwestern semicircle. These towers are rotating into the 300 mb flow and some of the canopy is overshooting the eye. That being said, the intense convection is likely dropping pressure and increasing the gradient. Fiona is intensifying. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted September 20, 2022 Share Posted September 20, 2022 Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)Transmitted: 20th day of the month at 2:09ZAgency: United States Air ForceAircraft: Lockheed WC-130J Hercules with reg. number AF97-5303Storm Name: FionaStorm Number & Year: 07 in 2022 (flight in the North Atlantic basin)Mission Number: 17Observation Number: 11 ( See all messages of this type for this mission. )A. Time of Center Fix: 20th day of the month at 1:31:30ZB. Center Fix Coordinates: 20.42N 70.41WB. Center Fix Location: 86 statute miles (139 km) to the SSE (147°) from Cockburn Town, Turks and Caicos Islands (U.K.).C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 2,856m (9,370ft) at 700mbD. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 972mb (28.71 inHg)E. Dropsonde Surface Wind at Center (Undecoded): NAF. Eye Character: Open in the southG. Eye Shape & Diameter: Circular with a diameter of 10 nautical miles (12 statute miles)H. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 96kts (110.5mph)I. Location & Time of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 6 nautical miles to the NNE (20°) of center fix at 1:28:00ZJ. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 89° at 86kts (From the E at 99.0mph)K. Location & Time of the Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 6 nautical miles to the N (9°) of center fix at 1:27:30ZL. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Outbound: 71kts (81.7mph)M. Location & Time of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Outbound: 13 nautical miles (15 statute miles) to the SE (129°) of center fix at 1:35:30ZN. Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: From 223° at 69kts (From the SW at 79.4mph)O. Location & Time of the Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: 11 nautical miles (13 statute miles) to the SE (128°) of center fix at 1:35:00ZP. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 7°C (45°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,043m (9,984ft)Q. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 15°C (59°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,060m (10,039ft)R. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 8°C (46°F)R. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not AvailableS. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and TemperatureS. Fix Level: 700mbT. Navigational Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical milesT. Meteorological Accuracy: 2 nautical milesRemarks Section: Maximum Flight Level Wind: 93kts (~ 107.0mph) which was observed 8 nautical miles to the E (84°) from the flight level center at 23:37:30Z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxSynopsisDavid Posted September 20, 2022 Share Posted September 20, 2022 16 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)Transmitted: 20th day of the month at 2:09ZAgency: United States Air ForceAircraft: Lockheed WC-130J Hercules with reg. number AF97-5303Storm Name: FionaStorm Number & Year: 07 in 2022 (flight in the North Atlantic basin)Mission Number: 17Observation Number: 11 ( See all messages of this type for this mission. )A. Time of Center Fix: 20th day of the month at 1:31:30ZB. Center Fix Coordinates: 20.42N 70.41WB. Center Fix Location: 86 statute miles (139 km) to the SSE (147°) from Cockburn Town, Turks and Caicos Islands (U.K.).C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 2,856m (9,370ft) at 700mbD. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 972mb (28.71 inHg)E. Dropsonde Surface Wind at Center (Undecoded): NAF. Eye Character: Open in the southG. Eye Shape & Diameter: Circular with a diameter of 10 nautical miles (12 statute miles)H. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 96kts (110.5mph)I. Location & Time of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 6 nautical miles to the NNE (20°) of center fix at 1:28:00ZJ. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 89° at 86kts (From the E at 99.0mph)K. Location & Time of the Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 6 nautical miles to the N (9°) of center fix at 1:27:30ZL. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Outbound: 71kts (81.7mph)M. Location & Time of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Outbound: 13 nautical miles (15 statute miles) to the SE (129°) of center fix at 1:35:30ZN. Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: From 223° at 69kts (From the SW at 79.4mph)O. Location & Time of the Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: 11 nautical miles (13 statute miles) to the SE (128°) of center fix at 1:35:00ZP. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 7°C (45°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,043m (9,984ft)Q. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 15°C (59°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,060m (10,039ft)R. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 8°C (46°F)R. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not AvailableS. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and TemperatureS. Fix Level: 700mbT. Navigational Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical milesT. Meteorological Accuracy: 2 nautical milesRemarks Section: Maximum Flight Level Wind: 93kts (~ 107.0mph) which was observed 8 nautical miles to the E (84°) from the flight level center at 23:37:30Z Very close, right on the cusp of being the first major cane of the year. Still looks like pressure is lagging behind though. Winds came up to 110mph but the pressure still at 972mb. This thing is about to bomb when the pressure catches up, by sunrise we should be seeing a rapid intensification phase underway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted September 20, 2022 Share Posted September 20, 2022 Recon coming around for a NE to SW pass so we're going to find out shortly whether it's done enough to attain major status. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxSynopsisDavid Posted September 20, 2022 Share Posted September 20, 2022 9 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: Recon coming around for a NE to SW pass so we're going to find out shortly whether it's done enough to attain major status. On paper....it looks like it has. Satellite appearance is appreciable, looks like the CDO is healthy. The vertical column looks shrouded and protected, don't see where there is any significant hinderance. No dry air entrainment and shear is very minimal. Outflow healthy in all 4 quads of the storm. The rapid cooling of the cloud tops, increased vortical towers going up along the eyewall, and mainly the presence of lightning in the eye tell me this thing is not only intensifying but about to start an RI process. It's a waiting game when recon finds that pressure has caught up. If they haven't found it yet I venture to say we are very close to that happening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted September 20, 2022 Share Posted September 20, 2022 110mph/971mb at 11pm Hurricane Fiona Discussion Number 23 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072022 1100 PM EDT Mon Sep 19 2022 The satellite presentation of the hurricane has improved significantly this evening. The eye has warmed and become more distinct and the surrounding ring of deep convection has cooled and is more symmetric. More recently, the eye has become smaller in size and this has also been observed by both NOAA and Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft that have been sampling the storm this evening. The aircraft have reported that the eye has shrunk to around 10 n mi in diameter. The NOAA plane has measured a peak flight level wind of 104 kt at around 8000 ft, while the Air Force aircraft has reported a peak 700-mb flight-level wind of 93 kt. Peak SFMR winds of 94-96 kt have also been found, and these data support increasing the initial intensity to 95 kt. The hurricane's outflow is somewhat restricted over the western portion of the circulation owing to some moderate southwesterly shear of the storm. Although this shear is not forecast to abate much, the intensity guidance indicates that warm water and a moist atmosphere should allow for continued intensification during the next 24 to 48 hours. Given the recent improvement in structure, the updated NHC intensity forecast calls for a slightly faster rate of strengthening during the next 12 to 24 hours, and it is at the upper end of the intensity guidance. The official forecast shows Fiona becoming a major hurricane overnight, and brings the hurricane to category 4 status in a day or so. Eyewall replacement cycles are likely to cause some fluctuations in intensity in the 24-72 h time period. By day 4, the hurricane is forecast to interact with a strong mid-tropospheric trough, which will start the system's extratropical transition. The process is forecast to be complete by the end of the period, and Fiona is expected to remain a powerful extratropical cyclone through day 5. The initial motion estimate is 330/9 kt. There track forecast philosophy again remains the same as the previous few forecast cycles. The hurricane should gradually turn north while moving around the western periphery of a mid-level ridge. After 72 hours, Fiona is forecast to turn north-northeastward and accelerate as a strong mid-level trough nears the northeastern United States. The track guidance remains tightly clustered and the NHC forecast is similar to the previous advisory, near the middle of the guidance envelope. Key Messages: 1. Heavy rains from Fiona will continue across parts of Puerto Rico and across northern and eastern Dominican Republic through tonight. These rainfall amounts will continue to produce life-threatening and catastrophic flooding along with mudslides and landslides across Puerto Rico. Life-threatening flash and urban flooding is likely for eastern portions of the Dominican Republic. 2. Hurricane conditions are expected over the Turks and Caicos, with tropical storm conditions over the southeastern Bahamas, beginning late tonight or early Tuesday. 3. Interests in Bermuda should monitor the progress of Fiona. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 20/0300Z 20.6N 70.3W 95 KT 110 MPH 12H 20/1200Z 21.8N 71.0W 110 KT 125 MPH 24H 21/0000Z 23.3N 71.4W 115 KT 130 MPH 36H 21/1200Z 24.6N 71.4W 120 KT 140 MPH 48H 22/0000Z 26.3N 71.0W 120 KT 140 MPH 60H 22/1200Z 28.5N 69.9W 120 KT 140 MPH 72H 23/0000Z 31.1N 68.0W 115 KT 130 MPH 96H 24/0000Z 39.8N 60.7W 105 KT 120 MPH 120H 25/0000Z 49.7N 58.5W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Brown Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted September 20, 2022 Share Posted September 20, 2022 Not there yet in the NE quadrant. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MattPetrulli Posted September 20, 2022 Share Posted September 20, 2022 7 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: 110mph/971mb at 11pm Hurricane Fiona Discussion Number 23 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072022 1100 PM EDT Mon Sep 19 2022 The satellite presentation of the hurricane has improved significantly this evening. The eye has warmed and become more distinct and the surrounding ring of deep convection has cooled and is more symmetric. More recently, the eye has become smaller in size and this has also been observed by both NOAA and Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft that have been sampling the storm this evening. The aircraft have reported that the eye has shrunk to around 10 n mi in diameter. The NOAA plane has measured a peak flight level wind of 104 kt at around 8000 ft, while the Air Force aircraft has reported a peak 700-mb flight-level wind of 93 kt. Peak SFMR winds of 94-96 kt have also been found, and these data support increasing the initial intensity to 95 kt. The hurricane's outflow is somewhat restricted over the western portion of the circulation owing to some moderate southwesterly shear of the storm. Although this shear is not forecast to abate much, the intensity guidance indicates that warm water and a moist atmosphere should allow for continued intensification during the next 24 to 48 hours. Given the recent improvement in structure, the updated NHC intensity forecast calls for a slightly faster rate of strengthening during the next 12 to 24 hours, and it is at the upper end of the intensity guidance. The official forecast shows Fiona becoming a major hurricane overnight, and brings the hurricane to category 4 status in a day or so. Eyewall replacement cycles are likely to cause some fluctuations in intensity in the 24-72 h time period. By day 4, the hurricane is forecast to interact with a strong mid-tropospheric trough, which will start the system's extratropical transition. The process is forecast to be complete by the end of the period, and Fiona is expected to remain a powerful extratropical cyclone through day 5. The initial motion estimate is 330/9 kt. There track forecast philosophy again remains the same as the previous few forecast cycles. The hurricane should gradually turn north while moving around the western periphery of a mid-level ridge. After 72 hours, Fiona is forecast to turn north-northeastward and accelerate as a strong mid-level trough nears the northeastern United States. The track guidance remains tightly clustered and the NHC forecast is similar to the previous advisory, near the middle of the guidance envelope. Key Messages: 1. Heavy rains from Fiona will continue across parts of Puerto Rico and across northern and eastern Dominican Republic through tonight. These rainfall amounts will continue to produce life-threatening and catastrophic flooding along with mudslides and landslides across Puerto Rico. Life-threatening flash and urban flooding is likely for eastern portions of the Dominican Republic. 2. Hurricane conditions are expected over the Turks and Caicos, with tropical storm conditions over the southeastern Bahamas, beginning late tonight or early Tuesday. 3. Interests in Bermuda should monitor the progress of Fiona. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 20/0300Z 20.6N 70.3W 95 KT 110 MPH 12H 20/1200Z 21.8N 71.0W 110 KT 125 MPH 24H 21/0000Z 23.3N 71.4W 115 KT 130 MPH 36H 21/1200Z 24.6N 71.4W 120 KT 140 MPH 48H 22/0000Z 26.3N 71.0W 120 KT 140 MPH 60H 22/1200Z 28.5N 69.9W 120 KT 140 MPH 72H 23/0000Z 31.1N 68.0W 115 KT 130 MPH 96H 24/0000Z 39.8N 60.7W 105 KT 120 MPH 120H 25/0000Z 49.7N 58.5W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Brown That's gonna produce a LOT of ACE. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted September 20, 2022 Share Posted September 20, 2022 967 mb per the latest dropsonde. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxSynopsisDavid Posted September 20, 2022 Share Posted September 20, 2022 1 minute ago, hawkeye_wx said: 967 mb per the latest dropsonde. 4mb drop since 11pm and its not even midnight yet. Appears the pressure has finally caught up to the winds. Bombs Away!!!!! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thunderbolt Posted September 20, 2022 Share Posted September 20, 2022 9 minutes ago, WxSynopsisDavid said: 4mb drop since 11pm and its not even midnight yet. Appears the pressure has finally caught up to the winds. Bombs Away!!!!! https://m.imdb.com/title/tt0088838/mediaviewer/rm479957504/?ref_=tt_ov_i Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxSynopsisDavid Posted September 20, 2022 Share Posted September 20, 2022 Just now, thunderbolt said: https://m.imdb.com/title/tt0088838/mediaviewer/rm479957504/?ref_=tt_ov_i "A wild, wacky, comedy adventure". That accurately describes Fiona lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Floydbuster Posted September 20, 2022 Share Posted September 20, 2022 Fiona is now the first major hurricane of the season. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan11295 Posted September 20, 2022 Share Posted September 20, 2022 Been looking that at model runs and they have been trending gradually to the left with Fiona. Better for Bermuda, But increases impacts to Canada, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Modfan2 Posted September 20, 2022 Share Posted September 20, 2022 27 minutes ago, dan11295 said: Been looking that at model runs and they have been trending gradually to the left with Fiona. Better for Bermuda, But increases impacts to Canada, Wondering how far west this comes; initially heading into NF now Nova Scotia, is Downeast Maine in play? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted September 20, 2022 Share Posted September 20, 2022 A bit lopsided on microwave and ragged on satellite this morning. Seems like it keeps trying to do an EWRC, but is slow to do so 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted September 20, 2022 Share Posted September 20, 2022 940 mb is the Canadian LP record Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted September 20, 2022 Share Posted September 20, 2022 Grand Turk had sustained winds at least up to 93 mph. Gusts over 100. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted September 20, 2022 Share Posted September 20, 2022 Pressure continues to fall but Fiona's slow forward motion is allowing the 300 mb flow to impede it somewhat keeping it in check. The double wind maxima is perhaps telling that it won't resolve these structural issues until it gains faster northerly forward motion, which should allow it to take off intensity wise. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted September 20, 2022 Share Posted September 20, 2022 Looks like I found a gust to 121 mph for Grand Turk. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted September 20, 2022 Share Posted September 20, 2022 Did this pass directly over grand Turk? Seems like that was unexpected per track from yesterday. Definitely leaning left. Good for Bermuda, not great for Atlantic Canada Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted September 20, 2022 Share Posted September 20, 2022 Also- per recon I have yet to see anything that confirms this as a major hurricane either yesterday or today. They may have jumped the gun a bit on that classification using satellite estimates. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prismshine Productions Posted September 20, 2022 Share Posted September 20, 2022 Also- per recon I have yet to see anything that confirms this as a major hurricane either yesterday or today. They may have jumped the gun a bit on that classification using satellite estimates. Not necessarily... A lot more people pay attention to the word "Major" slapped in front the title, could have jumped it for people in Turks and Caicos to get to shelterSent from my SM-S102DL using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted September 20, 2022 Share Posted September 20, 2022 The NHC's five day forecast up to this point was near perfect for track 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted September 20, 2022 Share Posted September 20, 2022 I don't really think they jumped. The explanation in the 5am disco was compelling to me. It does look borderline now though. Quote A few hours ago, an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft reported that the central pressure of Fiona had dropped to 967 mb, and that the 700-mb flight-level winds were near 95 kt. In addition, the aircraft also reported surface winds estimates from the SFMR of 100-105 kt. The various satellite intensity estimates are in the 100-115 kt range, and based on these data the initial intensity was increased to 100 kt. This makes Fiona the first major hurricane of the 2022 Atlantic hurricane season. It should be noted that since the aircraft left the storm, the eye has become less distinct in satellite imagery. NOAA and Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft are scheduled to investigate Fiona before 12Z to see how much, if any, additional strengthening has occurred. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now