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29 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

yep especially since the WAR often verifies further NW...i'd be more concerned about a N shift right now than a S shift.

It could possibly also trend further to the south as well well to the south of NYC so that's what this means ugh but I would like it anyway because i'm not a fan of ugly cloudy rainy weather especially if the system doesn't stay progressive and slows down and stalls out causing days and days of it but as long as it's only a short period of time in and out then I'm good with the much needed rain. Wish that front would find a way to speed up and give us this much needed rain Sunday night and get it out by Labor Day and Tuesday

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27 minutes ago, Salvatore B said:

It could possibly also trend further to the south as well well to the south of NYC so that's what this means ugh but I would like it anyway because i'm not a fan of ugly cloudy rainy weather especially if the system doesn't stay progressive and slows down and stalls out causing days and days of it but as long as it's only a short period of time in and out then I'm good with the much needed rain. Wish that front would find a way to speed up and give us this much needed rain Sunday night and get it out by Labor Day and Tuesday

It has slowed some-seems like it's late Monday now...

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15 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

We really need a good prolonged soaker. 

These quick hits didn't help much. A lot of burnt out, dead trees and bushes now. 

Prolonged soaker isn't that great either because it could lead to too much rain in a short period of time causing us to go from needing rain to not needing anymore in a short period of time and the in just 3 days you could be talking about needing to have a long dry stretch again to make up for having too much rain. The best way is to have like a 6 to 8 hour window of the soaking rain nonstop and then have it stay progressive and move out and anytime during the late evenings and overnights would be the right time for us to get these soakers

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that's not so bad just as long as it doesn't slow anymore and we can just find a way to get this much needed rain during the night Monday night and hopefully get that front out with drying conditions and a bit of clearing at least by late Tuesday morning into the afternoon and not have it slow down anymore causing it stay ugly all day Tuesday and even Wednesday too. Rain is good but never when it hangs around for days on end and most people believe the nuisance showers are better than rain but they aren't. I'd rather take decent soakings and have it stay progressive rather than those annoying nuisance showers and drizzle that can sometimes hang around even after the main rain event is over

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29 minutes ago, Salvatore B said:

Prolonged soaker isn't that great either because it could lead to too much rain in a short period of time causing us to go from needing rain to not needing anymore in a short period of time and the in just 3 days you could be talking about needing to have a long dry stretch again to make up for having too much rain. The best way is to have like a 6 to 8 hour window of the soaking rain nonstop and then have it stay progressive and move out and anytime during the late evenings and overnights would be the right time for us to get these soakers

3" over 3 days would be much better than 3" in 8 hours

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While a few inches of rain would be a start, it’s not enough to be a drought buster. Dry spots like Newark have over a -8.34 inch deficit. The only good news is that droughts haven’t lasted that long here in the last 20 years. Plus, even of bigger droughts in the late 90s and early 00s were nothing like the megadrought currently affecting the West. 

 

THE NEWARK NJ CLIMATE SUMMARY FOR SEPTEMBER 3 2022...
VALID TODAY AS OF 0400 PM LOCAL TIME.


 

PRECIPITATION (IN)    
SINCE JAN 1  
-8.34 

 

 

 

 

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Under bright sunshine, temperatures returned to the lower 80s this afternoon. Tomorrow will be warmer with highs in the middle and upper 80s.

A moderate to significant rainfall is likely from late Monday into Wednesday. A general 0.50"-1.50" rainfall appears likely. Some higher amounts will likely fall north and west of Newark and New York City.

The ongoing intense heatwave will continue into early next week in the West. Today's preliminary high temperatures included:

Belgrade, MT: 100° (96°, 2007) ***tied September record***
Billings: 101° (old record: 97°, 1950 and 1978)
Boise: 102° (old record: 101°, 1931 and 2007) ***tied September record***
Cut Bank: 96° (old record: 94°, 1950)
Death Valley: 122° (tied record set in 2007)
Dillon, MT: 97° (old record: 95°, 2017) ***new September record***
Glasgow, MT: 100°
Great Falls, MT: 102° (old record: 95°, 1978) ***new September record***
Havre, MT: 103° (old record: 99°, 2009) ***new September record***
Helena, MT: 99° (old record: 97°, 2017) ***tied September record***
Lancaster, CA: 109° (old record: 108°, 1955)
Lewistown, MT: 97° (old record: 93°, 2001)
Reno: 100°
Salt Lake City: 103° (old record: 98°, 2017) ***new September record***
Sheridan, WY: 101° (old record: 99°, 1950)

In the 6 past cases when the June AO averaged +0.750 or above (1950-2021), 67% of the following August and September cases featured above normal temperatures. The August ECMWF forecast shows a warmer than normal September in the Northeast. This warmth would be consistent with the ongoing warming that has been occurring in September.

On August 18, the SOI fell to -32.90. Since 1991, there were 8 cases when the SOI fell to -30 or below during the August 10-25 period. That outcome has often preceded a wetter than normal September in parts of the Northeast. Mean September rainfall figures for those 8 cases: Boston: 4.38" (normal: 3.55"); New York City: 5.08" (normal: 4.31"); and, Philadelphia: 5.12" (normal: 4.40"). Very wet years outnumbered very dry ones by a 2:1 ratio in Boston and 3:1 ratio in both New York City and Philadelphia. 63% of cases saw at least one day with 1" or more rainfall in Boston. 88% saw at least one day with 1" or more in New York City and Philadelphia. 50% of those cases saw at least one day with 2" or more daily rainfall in Philadelphia. In sum, the SOI may be offering a signal that there will be some drought relief for the northern Mid-Atlantic and southern New England regions in September. The recent passage of the MJO through Phase 2 at a very high amplitude (1.500 or above) during late August has introduced greater uncertainty.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.5°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.9°C for the week centered around August 24. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.72°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.93°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist through the fall.

The SOI was +16.46 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -1.791 today.

On September 1 the MJO was in Phase 3 at an amplitude of 0.711 (RMM). The August 31-adjusted amplitude was 0.932 (RMM).

 

 

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The next 8 days are averaging  72degs.(67/77)  or  +1.         7 Days of clouds and 6" of rain included here---if you believe the GFS.

gfs_apcpn_neus_32.png

Reached 79 here yesterday.

Today:   79-84, wind sw. to s.,  m.  cloudy, drizzle late?,  69 tomorrow AM.

72*(90%RH)  here at 7am.     75* at 10am.       78* at Noon.      80* at 1pm.      82*(78%RH)  feels like 88* at  2pm.        81* at 3pm.

Here is the Duke of Earl in 5 Days:    Never makes it further than 66W and misses Bermuda too.      But apparently a Major Hurricane @945mb. for the fishes.

1662724800-43AHR4X1hXU.png

 

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Morning thoughts…

It will be increasingly cloudy and warm.  High temperatures will reach the middle and perhaps upper 80s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include:

New York City (Central Park): 85°

Newark: 87°

Philadelphia: 88°

A significant rainfall is likely from later tomorrow into Wednesday. Somewhat cooler than normal conditions are likely through Thursday..

Normals:

New York City: 30-Year: 80.1°; 15-Year: 80.2°

Newark: 30-Year: 81.6°; 15-Year: 81.7°

Philadelphia: 30-Year: 82.7°; 15-Year: 82.6°

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Our first 1/2-4" three day event in the NYC subforum with off and on showers (1/2" for the small part of the area that may miss out on general heavy rains ({CT miss?, e LI miss?)}. This is not in my mind a drought buster as Bluewave previously noted, but it seems to me to be  leading up to more heavy rains by the end of next weekend.  If those heavy rains occur as I anticipate (using multiple ensemble 500MB confluence with a closed low over the lower Ohio Valley and east coast ridge); then another 1/2-4" would occur here late next weekend into Monday the 12th.  That second event would in my mind pretty much break the drought. This presumes the read of ensemble guidance is correct and the first event materializes as WPC forecast in their D1-3 from 08z/4.  

I don't plan on watering this evening through Wednesday nor have not added any water to the pool since this psst Friday. PW suggests heaviest rain I80 southward. 

Sooner or later the Atlantic Basin should bust loose and contribute more direct tropical moisture to our area in late Sept-Oct.  

So, I think things are looking up and we are all benefitting from improved modeling that can recognize this potential. . It allows for general planning,  out to 9 days.  

I'll look at guidance late today and possibly post some graphics for two event totals.

It should also be noted that already guidance is not so clean on no rain this Wed-Thu. 

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74 / 67 and some clouds and sun.  Clouds likely in the way of any 90s today ahead of the rains Mon (9/5) - Wed (9/7).  Solid 2 or more for many, i think this may over perform and like that from dry to deluge, it was just a matter of time.  By Thursday (9/8) we are clearing out as the Western Atlantic Ridge is building west more humid/warm flow by this Fri (9/9) and into next weekend.  Front slowed west of the region could be slow to clear or may cut off by Mon 9/12.  Beyond there ridge looks to rebuild and push overall warm air into the EC in the way beyond.  If no 90s today next shot may not come till next weekend or after mid month.   

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