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Tracking the Tropics


40/70 Benchmark
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On 8/25/2022 at 6:48 AM, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Even that would be NBD where I am.

I was just gonna say...  Take that storm track and tip it 50-70 miles to the left.

That would be stronger than the 1938 hurricane, sweeping ( perhaps literally!) over a structural and communication infrastructure that is, of course, orders of magnitude so much more densely evolved than even 1938, that any comparative calculation would almost extends beyond the imagination.   People don't really get what that would be like. Sorry. They don't. 

Little hyperbole, perhaps ... just a little.  But blah blah blah we've discussed the 'big one' like Californians do Earthquakes and so it is too, just a matter of time.  All that is has been put into place during a relative climate quiescence ... and remains untested.  The 1950s probably instilled a false sense of integrity to the above systemic modernization of this region of "disrespected" vulnerability.  Because they came and went within a mere billion of commerce.  Now? not much more then memories of grand-dad's fables, and he's been been dead for 20 years of continued cavalier times. 

It's gonna be a lot fun ... collecting southern RI, CT, SE Mass toilet paper, bank statements, bras, and a body part or two out of stripped trees of the deep interior, and a 6 week shut down of Boston and Providence and Worcester Metro while special engineering teams complete the architectural testing of high profile sky-line structures that bore the brunt of 180 mph 4 minute wind gusts. Not to mention the toxic quagmire almost as bad 9/11 miasma, choking the streets below...  Cat 4 hurricane moving 50 mi left of that track at 50 mph forward translation velocity?    

I dunno - we live within a probability for lightning strikes, too - good thing those don't really happen, huh.

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27 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

I track everything this time of year so I’m a little different, but yeah, it’s boring out there in the Atlantic relative to what we should be seeing. 

It’s really put up or shut up time for the tropical Atlantic. I do think we get something out of that area next week.

Right.....only I would phrase it "shut up until you put up".

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39 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I'm just at wit's end with boring dating back to last winter.....the season ended with a whimper, then we can't so much as buy a rain drop or even any viable tropical entity, threat to land be damned.

On top of this, the family is away, the Red Sox blow big ones and my fantasy team is out contention. Its dire straits right now. :lol:

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29 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

On top of this, the family is away, the Red Sox blow big ones and my fantasy team is out contention. Its dire straits right now. :lol:

It's frustrating as a baseball enthusiast.   I can't (fairly) call myself a fan, because I'm too stingy about giving up my time for the games during times like these.  It's tough for me to imagine my rating input helping the profit margins of an organization that has (frankly) seemingly become incompetent and almost dishonest.   Whatever the cause, they are not giving enough back to us in celebration to want to bother. I mean, that's what it is... we want them to win.

You know, it's the same part of the brain that processes 'winning' a coastal storm ...hurricane,whatever - you get sick of failure, and do other stuff.  At least I do.  I mean I have responsibilities to the weather pattern/notification that I have to engage with, but my engagement in forum antics gets more glanced when the pattern is incompetent - haha.

Anyway, cocktail of reasons seems to be cratering this team this season, well below the last 20 or so years of productivity mystique.  I'm not sure if it is all GM, or none GM. I'm sure sports OCD et al have fervent opinions on the matter.  But I seem to recall this GM inherited a pitching core that's prone to injury. And didn't have enough of a farm system. They used to also be an organization that developed pitchers in the triple-A and stuff.  Had scouts skulking around D.R. ball parks with a Rosetta Stone English for dummies and an extra-double top secret "preapproved" work visa application, for a tattered ragged 98 mph 15-year old prodigy.  

Kidding of course, but it's arrogant that they are relying on 15 years of erstwhile relative success momentum, to carry them through a season of apathy, while selling it to us on NESN and other means as there's still hope. 

Fuggers  

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We will see some activity in the 7-14 day time frame , will it be interesting for New England (Very low probability  ) will it create some fun waves (decent shot 50-60% ) will it effect anywhere that I’m willing to travel to ...mmm probably not but prolly a 1/5 shot maybe .

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1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

Records for low activity all over.

Just 3 days and I win! 

I'm pretty sure this month has been a Mr Blutowski  ...which was a my evil goal, to see a 0.0 month during all this popularization ( and even among sciences...) of CC causing the opposite. 

I never liked the assumption - certainly not the use  of it to sell headlines.  I can think of plausibility too easily why that is not necessarily true, worth research - yet no enabled sources attempt to do so.  Makes me think it's just another example of species now exhibiting diminishing returns.  It's another drug to fill the needles of a species increasingly psychotropically addicted/slaved to the greatest mass opiate since the invention of religion: dystopian news delivered as a stimulus.

  something like that -

But even if some random over achieving CU managed to .01 the Basin ... setting the record probably still qualifies a win.

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1 hour ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Just 3 days and I win! 

I'm pretty sure this month has been a Mr Blutowski  ...which was a my evil goal, to see a 0.0 month during all this popularization ( and even among sciences...) of CC causing the opposite. 

I never liked the assumption - certainly not the use  of it to sell headlines.  I can think of plausibility too easily why that is not necessarily true, worth research - yet no enabled sources attempt to do so.  Makes me think it's just another example of species now exhibiting diminishing returns.  It's another drug to fill the needles of a species increasingly psychotropically addicted/slaved to the greatest mass opiate since the invention of religion: dystopian news delivered as a stimulus.

  something like that -

But even if some random over achieving CU managed to .01 the Basin ... setting the record probably still qualifies a win.

 

21 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

It’s pretty wild. Ray really has me wondering if the volcano eruption has something to do with it. 

 

ACE as a whole if I am not mistaken has been decreasing in the NHEM lately. Jun_Aug TORS in the states will likely be at all time lows.

 

While we need more sample size....as Tip has said regarding the tropics...this SHOULD also get some research and attention. Is it possible a warming world is screwing around with large scale circulations like Walker/Hadley cells and causing this? Who knows. Unfortunately,  I feel like the community is scared to openly admit if indeed their could be a correlation to AGW and thus making the problem seem less important to the general public. That is NOT how science is supposed to work. 

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10 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

I always thought we would see less hurricanes but stronger ones in an AGW world. 

We also just had a string of well above normal seasons. 

To accomplish what we are doing now in the age of fantastic remote sensing to classify TCs is pretty much unprecedented. People don't realize how catastrophic it was from the 30s to early 60s. 

 

The NPAC is also shut down too. The EPAC was busy, but now that is coming down to normal % of ACE. Of course with the role of hurricanes moving heat from the tropics to polar regions, it makes me wonder how that gets messed up?

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4 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I just suggested that based on the research that raindance posted......I definitely don't know much about that myself.

I know some believe it's affecting the Strat in the Srn Hemi...but I don't know how much material went north of the equator.

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3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I know some believe it's affecting the Strat in the Srn Hemi...but I don't know how much material went north of the equator.

This was raindance's take:

I'm treating Tonga as a N. Hem volcano because it erupted more greenhouse gasses than aerosols, since N Hem / S Hem volcanoes have opposite effects on the Northern Hemisphere hurricane seasons.

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2 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Fwiw ... NASA et al have already released statements that the Tonga eruption was not sufficient to significant forcing. 

Not sure of the exact wording or their methods in making that determination.

It did release records amounts of water vapor into the stratosphere. I know some were worried about exacerbating GW.

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