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August Discussion/Obs


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6z euro definitely cooler than 00z for up here. The GFS is likely overdone…think I’d lean toward the NAM numbers with better diurnal recovery. Although 12z is rolling out now so we’ll see how it changes.

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32 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

There is a weak low that develops on front too which helps propel it SW. I think the euro depiction seems plausible. 
 

It’s August, but that is still a hell of a thermal gradient which we know they like and helps accelerate it SW. Although this won’t act like a door in May, I could see later Tuesday and Tuesday night, winds shift more light NE into eastern MA.  I guess we shall see.

Fwiw the Canadian offers less support for the GFS' frontal behaviors ...  but what's interesting is that it does have a stronger polar high scooting E of Ontario into Quebec. It also has compromised pooling of drier air over eastern Quebec by 12z Tuesday..   But neither it, nor the Euro, have anywhere close to the same 925 mb circulation orientation - the GFS has a 10 kt NE CAD flow...  the others have a 20 kt west dragon breath. 

 

 

 

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1 hour ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

They don’t get after it though. Lots of time spent indoors in cool air. I’ve never seen them post pics of them dripping in sweat smiling. 
 

I already played pickup hoops this morning and playing golf later. Wife and kids are going into Manhattan. It’s not my favorite weather but we do things.

Just a handful of twisted folks who consider getting plowed next to a pool an activity.

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Probably have spent more time on this than is ultimately healthy lol ... but, the course of least regret for Tuesday is just the straight compromise. 

I mean, it's weird when the two sides are so diametrical to one another - but ignore that  These other non-standard guidance' I'm seeing are offering splits between those extremes of the GFS and Euro. 

It probably results in a slow suppression south of a near W-E oriented quasi-stationary boundary during Tuesday...and as it nears roughly EEN-PSM... ongoing convection along it, combined with the local circulation forcing when GOM cool air lurking there with outflow from that activity, together en masse help accelerate the boundary through NE zones...  I don't buy 58 at ASH though.  But everyone should be N of the boundary ( Pike?) by 00z Wed, either way...

But I also suspect the boundary is weakening too... I don't think the backside environment of the GFS is very right ...as the persistent trends over the last 8 weeks has been for these late mid range troughs to flatten some/enough to bounce back the 850s - not sure I see a reason why that won't play out again toward the end of next week.  We'll see.

I think going forward toward the ides and there after, we are heading toward more pedestrian heat and or just tepidly above normal in between. We'll have to watch for a Bahama Blue pattern setting up...  As the summer ages... the lower amplitude subtropical ridge passes through a period of time where the flow bottoms over the SE more - I think the GFS is sniffing that out, but as usual...going too far with it every couple of runs.  But the general idea of it has some merit.

Recent Euro runs have been flirting with MDR activity but...  the hemisphere is non conducive - for now.

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Slip that sfc low a little further south on Tue and we wedge all day up here like most of Maine. It’s not difficult to envision that happening with the BD/seabreeze airmass already in place in the morning. Get enough sun though and we mix that shallow cool air right out.

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15 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Screen doors slamming Monday afternoon in ENE on the NAM.

I knew we were going to get that from the NAM.  As soon as the range in question ever comes into its feelers, it does not wait around -it's like leaning on any chance to do it as a model framework  lol. 

It could be an advantage of it's hyper discrete grid/BL resolution, but I've also seen that 48-72 hour range have to back off whence upon the short scope just as often.   Monday is before the GFS contention, anyway, so ...it's probably seeing something else ? 

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Just now, Typhoon Tip said:

I knew we were going to get that from the NAM.  As soon as the range in question ever comes into its feelers, does not wait around. 

It could be an advantage of it's hyper discrete grid/BL resolution, but I've also seen that 48-72 hour range have to back off whence upon the short scope just as often.   Monday is before the GFS contention, anyway, so ...it's probably seeing something else ? 

Yeah not sure…3k is even more aggressive than the 12k. 

image.gif

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5 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Yeah not sure…3k is even more aggressive than the 12k. 

image.gif

Well ...we can see there, during the antecedent 24 hours...it's opting for a bigger polar high scooting E through Ontario --> Quebec.  If that happens...and hooks around the Maine White's extension/topography, there's nothing stopping it from setting sights on NYC ...

I dunno- if the high is real and it lobes/does that end around, we're f'ed.    This is so aggressive ( and a continuity change) from a model with an overwhelmingly ungood synoptic management skill in that particular range tho lol

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Do you guys remember that fantastic 'pollen squall' event this last spring.  I think it was latter May ... but that product Brian posted above reminds me of that BD event.   It came through with winds gusting to 35 mph and 1/4 mi visibility tree sperm... 

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