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July 2022


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Major heat to start to July with mid to upper 90s possible in the usual warm spots on the 1st. Heat continues into Saturday with a cold front Saturday afternoon or at night with strong to possibly severe storms.  We probably clear out by Monday for a dry 4th with high pressure building down from the Great Lakes.


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Interesting the gefs, other then 88 Friday , has 80-84 near the NYC area for most of next week, with hints of 85-90 the following week. 

Eps shows eps is now showing 85-90 Thursday and 90-95 Friday nyc area, though it should be noted majority of the southern CT counties all of Long Island,  jersey shore area are 5-10 degrees cooler it would appear.  It would also be noted that this heat will be accompanied by strong winds, from the south. 

 

Saturday has cooled dramatically over several runs days it would appear with a suggest high 80-85 nyc area, cooler north and east. (75-80)

 Sunday and Monday temps would be 80-85 it looks like.  

After the 4th to the 14th though,  eps isn't showing any 90s at all near nyc area interestingly.  80-85 temperatures mainly, has heat staying confined in the Texas region. 

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Opening hot Fri/ warm but stormy Sat (7/2) into Sun (7/3) but improving to a nice sunny / warm day.  Fourth of July (7/4) looks warm near 90 and low 90s in the warm spots.  GFS has pop up storms potential Tuesday (7/5), Wed (7/6) with a warmer / drier Thu (7/7) / Fri (7/8).   A trough moves into the northeast 7/9 - 7/11 on most forecasts before we see heights rise again by the second work week of July with another push of heat from the furnace blasting the rockies/plains.

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July 1st looks like it will be our warmest day for a while. The ridge pulls back to the west again from the 5th to at least the 11th. So still no sign of the ridge locking in near the Northeast like we have seen in recent summers.

14B9ADEF-385C-4F25-9760-E5E314800E27.thumb.png.79a00670245ac6c17cb7583468beb927.png

 

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Morning thoughts…

Today will partly sunny and hot. High temperatures will reach the lower and middle 90s in most of the region. Coastal areas will be somewhat cooler. Likely high temperatures around the region include:

New York City (Central Park): 90°

Newark: 96°

Philadelphia: 93°

Tomorrow will variably cloudy. Thunderstorms are likely. Some could be severe.

Normals:

New York City: 30-Year: 83.8°; 15-Year: 84.1°

Newark: 30-Year: 86.1°; 15-Year: 86.5°

Philadelphia: 30-Year: 87.1°; 15-Year: 87.6°

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June ended at  71.4[-0.6].

The first 8 days of July are averaging  78degs(70/87) or +2.

Reached 82 here yesterday.

Today:  86-92, wind w., sun/clouds, 74 tomorrow AM.

(low 69* at midnight )73*(93%RH) here at 7am.       75* at 9am.      76* at 10am.      78* at Noon.        T struggling with 80* with more clouds than sun at 2pm.        84* at 4pm.        Reached 88* around 6pm.          83* at 8pm.

Peek-A-Boo.....I see you at 2pm+

1656698880-IF5FsmA6YVI.png

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Unusually strong Ambrose Jet today near the South Shore beaches. Models have 30 to 40 mph gusts. So plenty of blowing sand for people trying to escape the heat further to the west today. Watch out for dangerous rip currents.

 

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26 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Unusually strong Ambrose Jet today near the South Shore beaches. Models have 30 to 40 mph gusts. So plenty of blowing sand for people trying to escape the heat further to the west today. Watch out for dangerous rip currents.

 

D9A4C7DE-0579-41CF-8D73-619F727D5709.thumb.png.c5203e42fea50d8bc55d2a9232edbb1a.png
41810197-899F-4401-A700-DB7484FD2B9C.thumb.png.95b89c9a7fc4b31755a1f74826aa21a5.png

 

Is there a technical explanation for this phenomenon?  This is the first time I have heard of this.

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12 minutes ago, Tatamy said:

Is there a technical explanation for this phenomenon?  This is the first time I have heard of this.

I think it has something to do with the land/sea temp contrast.   It's usually at it's strongest in June and July. 

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30 minutes ago, Tatamy said:

Is there a technical explanation for this phenomenon?  This is the first time I have heard of this.

It’s driven by the differential heating between the land and the water.

https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/mwre/138/6/2009mwr3231.1.xml

5. Summary and conclusions

High-resolution observations and model simulations using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model were used to understand the structural evolution, dynamics, and climatology of a low-level jet over the coastal waters of the New York Bight (NYB) region. A 1997–2006 climatology of the jet using hourly data from a tower (ALSN6) and a buoy (44025) in the NYB shows that the jet is most common during the warm season (June–July peak), with a skew in the monthly distribution toward spring, since the jet is driven by the differential heating between land and water. About 28% of the events have winds greater than 13 m s−1 (25 kt), which meets or exceeds the small craft advisory wind conditions for the National Weather Service. The wind directions for the jet trace out an elliptical orbit for the 24-h period around the jet maximum, which is at 2300 UTC (1800 LST) on average. In addition to the inertial forces, there is also an increasing west-northwest–east-southeast-directed pressure gradient that peaks 1–3 h before the time of maximum southerly wind. This 1–3-h delay is qualitatively consistent with geostrophic adjustment. Spatial composites reveal that the NYB jet occurs when there is large-scale southwesterly flow around a Bermuda high and a short-wave ridge along the East Coast. The composites also illustrate that the

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16 hours ago, bluewave said:

July 1st looks like it will be our warmest day for a while. The ridge pulls back to the west again from the 5th to at least the 11th. So still no sign of the ridge locking in near the Northeast like we have seen in recent summers.

14B9ADEF-385C-4F25-9760-E5E314800E27.thumb.png.79a00670245ac6c17cb7583468beb927.png

 

There is also no letup in the La Niña. A rare triple La Niña looks all but certain now. And the -PDO/-PMM mode continues unabated, the -IOD appears to be doing its dirty work. This Niña is extremely well coupled with the atmosphere and yet another period of big strengthening looks very likely: 

 

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5 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

There is also no letup in the La Niña. A rare triple La Niña looks all but certain now. And the -PDO/-PMM mode continues unabated, the -IOD appears to be doing its dirty work. This Niña is extremely well coupled with the atmosphere and yet another period of big strengthening looks very likely: 

 

 

It'll probably basically fall off to nothing though by January which will make the winter forecast virtually impossible this year.

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18 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

 

It'll probably basically fall off to nothing though by January which will make the winter forecast virtually impossible this year.

this is how it looks for the third la nina or weak negative year...

NYC averages slightly above average for temperatures...slightly below average snowfall...

 

3rd year la nina temp.png

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5 minutes ago, uncle W said:

this is how it looks for the third la nina or weak negative year...

NYC averages slightly above average for temperatures...slightly below average snowfall...

 

3rd year la nina temp.png

1957, 1976 and 1986 became an el nino for the next winter...2001-02 and 2013-14 were weak negatives...

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Warm start many low/mid 80s before 11AM.  July opens hot and turns stormy.  Long weekend looks great 3/4 of the time. Saturday storms and cloudy conditions.  Drier and warm again 3th/4th.  Period Jul 5th - Jul 9th looks a bit unsettled (Florida like) front nearby could trigger popup storms each day, otherwise warm and a bit humid.  Trough looks to push through by the end of the week Jul 8th - Jul 10th.  We'll see if the furnace out west under the heat dome in the rockies where the ridge goes bonkers, can spread east with a taste of more sustained heat by the 12th.

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