July 2022

[Rjay]

1 minute ago, winterwx21 said:

Only a little bit on the HRRR. 12z Euro that just came out cut way back on the rain. Now it has very little. Not looking good for much rain tonight, unfortunately.

Yup but I'll take a little.  

[winterwx21]

6 minutes ago, Rjay said:

Yup but I'll take a little.  

And we can hope that NAM is right about getting more. I doubt it, but you never know.

[SACRUS]

2PM

BLM: 87
ACY: 87
EWR: 86
PHL: 86
New Brnswck: 85
LGA: 85
NYC: 84
TEB: 84
JFK: 83
ISP: 82
TTN: 82

[SACRUS]

http://synoptic.envsci.rutgers.edu/site/imgs/vis_nj_anim.gif

 

[Cfa]

Snuck in a 90 with ~30 min break of sunshine earlier.

Currently 85.

[bluewave]

Pretty extreme to go from 20 stations over 10.00” last July to more than 20 under .50 this year so far. 

Monthly Data for July 2021 for Upton NY NWS CWA
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

State	Name	Station Type	Total Precipitation
NY	PORT WASHINGTON 0.8 N	CoCoRaHS	14.76
CT	NORTHFORD 0.8 SW	CoCoRaHS	12.54
CT	DARIEN 3.6 N	CoCoRaHS	12.06
CT	DARIEN 2.4 NW	CoCoRaHS	11.43
NY	NY CITY CENTRAL PARK	WBAN	11.09
CT	STRATFORD 0.9 W	CoCoRaHS	11.04
CT	WESTPORT 2.5 ENE	CoCoRaHS	11.01
CT	NORWALK 2.9 NNW	CoCoRaHS	10.98
CT	NORWALK 1.4 ENE	CoCoRaHS	10.75
CT	DARIEN 1.8 ENE	CoCoRaHS	10.71
NY	ALBERTSON 0.2 SSE	CoCoRaHS	10.68
CT	STAMFORD 4.2 S	CoCoRaHS	10.62
CT	DURHAM 2.2 SSW	CoCoRaHS	10.58
NY	QUEENS 3.7 N	CoCoRaHS	10.54
CT	NEW CANAAN 1.9 ENE	CoCoRaHS	10.48
NJ	LINDEN 2.2 NW	CoCoRaHS	10.32
CT	WEST HAVEN 0.8 W	CoCoRaHS	10.29
CT	REDDING 1.4 E	CoCoRaHS	10.25
CT	MIDDLEFIELD 0.6 SE	CoCoRaHS	10.24
NY	LOCUST VALLEY 0.3 E	CoCoRaHS	10.13
CT	KILLINGWORTH 1.1 N	CoCoRaHS	10.07

 

Monthly Data for July 2022 for Upton NY NWS CWA
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

State	Name	Station Type	Total Precipitation
NY	BLUE POINT 0.4 E	CoCoRaHS	0.15
CT	IVORYTON 0.9 WSW	CoCoRaHS	0.15
NY	LARCHMONT 1.1 NNE	CoCoRaHS	0.18
NY	SETAUKET-EAST SETAUKET 0.7 SSW	CoCoRaHS	0.19
NY	COPIAGUE 0.4 ENE	CoCoRaHS	0.21
NY	SAYVILLE 1.0 SSE	CoCoRaHS	0.22
NJ	GLEN ROCK 0.7 SSE	CoCoRaHS	0.24
NY	AMITYVILLE 0.1 WSW	CoCoRaHS	0.26
NY	SAYVILLE 0.2 SE	CoCoRaHS	0.30
NY	WESTHAMPTON GABRESKI AP	WBAN	0.30
NY	PATCHOGUE 0.9 SE	CoCoRaHS	0.31
CT	GRISWOLD 0.9 N	CoCoRaHS	0.31
CT	MYSTIC 3.4 NW	CoCoRaHS	0.32
NY	REMSENBURG-SPEONK 0.9 NE	CoCoRaHS	0.32
NY	BROOKLYN 3.1 NW	CoCoRaHS	0.34
NY	AMITYVILLE 0.6 NNE	CoCoRaHS	0.35
NY	WANTAGH 0.3 ESE	CoCoRaHS	0.37
CT	NORWICH 2.5 NNE	CoCoRaHS	0.39
CT	NEW HAVEN 2.9 NNW	CoCoRaHS	0.39
NY	STATEN ISLAND 1.4 SE	CoCoRaHS	0.41
NY	BRIGHTWATERS 0.5 NNE	CoCoRaHS	0.41
NY	MASSAPEQUA PARK 1.2 N	CoCoRaHS	0.44
NY	LOCUST VALLEY 0.3 E	CoCoRaHS	0.46
NY	BAY SHORE 0.5 ESE	CoCoRaHS	0.46
NY	FARMINGDALE REPUBLIC AP	WBAN	0.49

[Allsnow]

Euro loss most of the rain it had for tonight sigh 

[Stormlover74]

9 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Pretty extreme to go from 20 stations over 10.00” last July to more than 20 under .50 this year so far. 

Monthly Data for July 2021 for Upton NY NWS CWA
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

State	Name	Station Type	Total Precipitation
NY	PORT WASHINGTON 0.8 N	CoCoRaHS	14.76
CT	NORTHFORD 0.8 SW	CoCoRaHS	12.54
CT	DARIEN 3.6 N	CoCoRaHS	12.06
CT	DARIEN 2.4 NW	CoCoRaHS	11.43
NY	NY CITY CENTRAL PARK	WBAN	11.09
CT	STRATFORD 0.9 W	CoCoRaHS	11.04
CT	WESTPORT 2.5 ENE	CoCoRaHS	11.01
CT	NORWALK 2.9 NNW	CoCoRaHS	10.98
CT	NORWALK 1.4 ENE	CoCoRaHS	10.75
CT	DARIEN 1.8 ENE	CoCoRaHS	10.71
NY	ALBERTSON 0.2 SSE	CoCoRaHS	10.68
CT	STAMFORD 4.2 S	CoCoRaHS	10.62
CT	DURHAM 2.2 SSW	CoCoRaHS	10.58
NY	QUEENS 3.7 N	CoCoRaHS	10.54
CT	NEW CANAAN 1.9 ENE	CoCoRaHS	10.48
NJ	LINDEN 2.2 NW	CoCoRaHS	10.32
CT	WEST HAVEN 0.8 W	CoCoRaHS	10.29
CT	REDDING 1.4 E	CoCoRaHS	10.25
CT	MIDDLEFIELD 0.6 SE	CoCoRaHS	10.24
NY	LOCUST VALLEY 0.3 E	CoCoRaHS	10.13
CT	KILLINGWORTH 1.1 N	CoCoRaHS	10.07

 

Monthly Data for July 2022 for Upton NY NWS CWA
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

State	Name	Station Type	Total Precipitation
NJ	MONTCLAIR 0.7 NNE	CoCoRaHS	0.00
NY	BLUE POINT 0.4 E	CoCoRaHS	0.15
CT	IVORYTON 0.9 WSW	CoCoRaHS	0.15
NY	LARCHMONT 1.1 NNE	CoCoRaHS	0.18
NY	SETAUKET-EAST SETAUKET 0.7 SSW	CoCoRaHS	0.19
NY	COPIAGUE 0.4 ENE	CoCoRaHS	0.21
NY	SAYVILLE 1.0 SSE	CoCoRaHS	0.22
NJ	GLEN ROCK 0.7 SSE	CoCoRaHS	0.24
NY	AMITYVILLE 0.1 WSW	CoCoRaHS	0.26
NY	SAYVILLE 0.2 SE	CoCoRaHS	0.30
NY	WESTHAMPTON GABRESKI AP	WBAN	0.30
NY	PATCHOGUE 0.9 SE	CoCoRaHS	0.31
CT	GRISWOLD 0.9 N	CoCoRaHS	0.31
CT	MYSTIC 3.4 NW	CoCoRaHS	0.32
NY	REMSENBURG-SPEONK 0.9 NE	CoCoRaHS	0.32
NY	BROOKLYN 3.1 NW	CoCoRaHS	0.34
NY	AMITYVILLE 0.6 NNE	CoCoRaHS	0.35
NY	WANTAGH 0.3 ESE	CoCoRaHS	0.37
CT	NORWICH 2.5 NNE	CoCoRaHS	0.39
CT	NEW HAVEN 2.9 NNW	CoCoRaHS	0.39
NY	STATEN ISLAND 1.4 SE	CoCoRaHS	0.41
NY	BRIGHTWATERS 0.5 NNE	CoCoRaHS	0.41
NY	MASSAPEQUA PARK 1.2 N	CoCoRaHS	0.44
NY	LOCUST VALLEY 0.3 E	CoCoRaHS	0.46
NY	BAY SHORE 0.5 ESE	CoCoRaHS	0.46
NY	FARMINGDALE REPUBLIC AP	WBAN	0.49

No way montclair has had 0.00 rainfall

[doncat]

Just now, Stormlover74 said:

No way montclair has had 0.00 rainfall

Yeah are those cocorahs reports even reliable.

[Allsnow]

20 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

No way montclair has had 0.00 rainfall

Yeah, absolutely not 

[bluewave]

26 minutes ago, doncat said:

Yeah are those cocorahs reports even reliable.

The Cocorahs reports are very reliable. But when you see a 0, it means the station hasn’t reported. All of the other stations that are under .50  in my area of the South Shore are correct. You can see the Montclair station hasn’t updated when you compare  it to the surrounding stations that did.  

[Brian5671]

55 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Euro loss most of the rain it had for tonight sigh 

HRRR and both NAMS have rain for many-but we'll see

[bluewave]

4 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

HRRR and both NAMS have rain for many-but we'll see

Any small amount of moisture we get will dry up pretty quickly with the 100°+ heat being advertised by later next week.

[Brian5671]

6 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Any small amount of moisture we get will dry up pretty quickly with the 100°+ heat being advertised by later next week.

even the 3 inches I had here b/w the 2 monday events dried up incredibly quick.

[winterwx21]

15 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

HRRR and both NAMS have rain for many-but we'll see

The latest run of HRRR (19z) gives us almost nothing. Not getting my hopes up with NAM being the only model that gives us decent rain, but we'll see.

[bluewave]

9 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

even the 3 inches I had here b/w the 2 monday events dried up incredibly quick.

Pretty extreme variations this month between 1000 year rainfall events in St Louis and Kentucky and other areas with one of their driest Julys.
 

 

[donsutherland1]

48 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Pretty extreme variations this month between 1000 year rainfall events in St Louis and Kentucky and other areas with one of their driest Julys.
 

 

It will be interesting to see if there is an attribution study. If so, these events may be covered in the same study, even as they occurred days apart.

[Stormlover74]

This sad excuse for a shower just left 12 drops on my grill

[donsutherland1]

Temperatures will generally remain near or above normal through the remainder of the month. Afterward, there is the potential for significant heat to expand into the region during the first week of August. Overall, August will likely be warmer than normal.

Out West, Austin and San Antonio are virtually certain to record their third consecutive record warm month. Galveston is on track to record its fourth consecutive record warm month. Seattle is now experiencing its third extreme heat event in the last two years and could make a run at tying or breaking its longest stretch of 90° or above days.

During June 16-20, the MJO has been in Phase 1 at an amplitude of 1.500 or above. Of the six cases that saw such an outcome during June 15-25 (1988, 2003, 2010, 2012, 2017 and 2020), four had a warmer than normal July, one was somewhat cooler than normal and one was cooler than normal. The latest guidance all indicates that July will wind up solidly among the warmer than normal cases.

The ECMWF seasonal forecast indicates that the summer will be warmer than normal throughout the region and across much of North America. Based on how the pattern has been evolving during the spring transition to summer, it is more likely than not that the warmest anomalies of the summer will likely occur in July and August with June being the coolest of the three months in the Northeast. The latest ECMWF monthly forecast indicates that July will be warmer than June relative to normal and that August will be the warmest summer month relative to normal.

In addition, in the 6 past cases when the June AO averaged +0.750 or above (1950-2021), 50% of the following July cases were warmer than normal. 67% of the following August and September cases featured above normal temperatures.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.0°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.7°C for the week centered around July 20. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -1.30°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.60°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist through the summer.

The SOI was +20.99.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.260 today.

On July 27 the MJO was in Phase 2 at an amplitude of 0.928 (RMM). The July 26-adjusted amplitude was 1.189 (RMM).

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 100% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal July (1991-2020 normal). July will likely finish with a mean temperature near 79.5° (2.0° above normal).

 

[gravitylover]

37 drops 

[rclab]

5 minutes ago, gravitylover said:

37 drops 

Good evening gravity. The postage stamp had a one foot square downpour. Either that or the third floor apartments AC is leaking again. Stay well, as always. ….

 

[SACRUS]

7/29

BLM: 89
EWR: 89
New Brnswck: 87
LGA: 87
ACY: 87
TEB: 86
TTN: 86
ISP: 86
JFK: 85
NYC: 85

[gravitylover]

2 hours ago, rclab said:

Good evening gravity. The postage stamp had a one foot square downpour. Either that or the third floor apartments AC is leaking again. Stay well, as always. ….

 

Was it clear or ... 

[Stormlover74]

Pouring at the stadium 

[rclab]

47 minutes ago, gravitylover said:

Was it clear or ... 

Point taken … fortunately it was in a different window. Good lookin out though. As always ….

[CIK62]

A Jolly Good Miss:                           A dead calm suddenly got a little breeze to it, as showers passed to the north.         Was watching fireworks here in CI 9:45pm-10:05pm.

https://imgur.com/a/xubblKI

[TWCCraig]

Probably won't see any good rain here until mid-August at best. Globals are dry for my location for the foreseeable future. Summer 2010 had a localized drought on the south shore, by August leaves we're turning yellow on stressed trees. That will definitely happen soon if it isn't happening already. Late July - mid October 2019 was the last significant dry period here. That caused the fall colors to come earlier despite it being relatively warm.

[bluewave]

Several of our stations are near the top of the list for July heat and lack of rainfall.

 

Time Series Summary for New Brunswick Area, NJ (ThreadEx) - Month of Jul
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Year	Mean Avg Temperature	Missing Count
1	1999	79.7	0
-	1955	79.7	0
3	2022	79.2	3
4	2013	79.1	0
5	2020	79.0	0

 

Time Series Summary for New Brunswick Area, NJ (ThreadEx) - Month of Jul
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Year	Total Precipitation	Missing Count
1	1910	0.31	0
2	1944	0.68	0
3	2022	0.77	3
4	1968	0.85	0
5	1999	0.99	0

 

Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Month of Jul
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Year	Mean Avg Temperature	Missing Count
1	2022	82.7	2
-	2011	82.7	0
2	1993	82.5	0
3	2010	82.3	0
4	1994	81.9	0
5	2013	80.9	0

 

Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Month of Jul
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Year	Total Precipitation	Missing Count
1	2022	0.55	2
2	1932	0.84	0
3	1966	0.89	0
4	1999	1.01	0
5	1955	1.14	0

 

Time Series Summary for WESTCHESTER CO AP, NY - Month of Jul
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Year	Mean Avg Temperature	Missing Count
1	1999	78.5	1
2	2013	77.0	0
-	2010	77.0	0
3	2022	76.9	2
-	2020	76.9	0
4	2019	76.8	0
5	1966	76.7	0
-	1955	76.7	2

 

Time Series Summary for JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT, NY - Month of Jul
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Year	Total Precipitation	Missing Count
1	1954	0.46	0
2	1970	0.54	0
3	1966	0.69	0
4	2002	0.71	0
5	1998	0.97	0
6	1999	1.03	0
7	2022	1.10	2
8	1974	1.29	0
9	1957	1.41	0
10	2012	1.54	0

 

Time Series Summary for FARMINGDALE REPUBLIC AP, NY - Month of Jul
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Year	Mean Avg Temperature	Missing Count
1	2020	80.6	0
2	2010	79.7	0
3	2022	78.4	3
4	2013	78.1	0
5	2011	78.0	0

 

Time Series Summary for FARMINGDALE REPUBLIC AP, NY - Month of Jul
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Year	Total Precipitation	Missing Count
1	2022	0.49	3
2	2013	1.15	2
-	2002	1.15	0
3	2011	1.35	0
4	2012	1.49	0
5	2015	1.76	1

 

Time Series Summary for WESTHAMPTON GABRESKI AP, NY - Month of Jul
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Year	Total Precipitation	Missing Count
1	1998	0.23	18
2	1968	0.28	0
3	2022	0.31	6
4	1966	0.34	0
5	2018	0.68	15

 

[CIK62]

The last 2 days of July are averaging  82degs.(73/91)or +4.

Month to date is  79.6[+2.1].       July should end at 79.8[+2.3].

Reached 85 here yesterday.

Today:  86-91, wind nw., m. sunny, 72 by tomorrow AM.

75*(77%RH) here at 7am.       81* (40%RH)at Noon.      83* at 1pm.       86*(34%RH) at 3pm.        87* at 4pm.        88*(33%RH) at 5pm.        Reached 91*(29%RH) near 6pm+       82* at 9pm.

[bluewave]

The tree growth issue at the Central Park ASOS has caused the temperatures during the last heatwave run cooler than the warmest urban sites by 5-8°. The main problem here is that the major media outlets focus very heavily on that Central Park temperature for their forecasts. Most forecasts for NYC were highs in the  mid 90s which reflects the error at the ASOS. Each day from 7-20 to 7-24 there were multiple 100° or warmer temperatures. Most forecasts didn’t mention 100° potential on their broadcasts. Instead, there were several twitter posts saying how the 100° readings were not reliable. This is doing a giant disservice to the public experiencing the 100° heat. The list below is all the 100° highs each day and the Central Park differential. The NYC micronet data is from the ground level sites to match the other networks. 
 

7-20

Newark…100°

Somerset…100°

Hillsborough-Duke…100°

Brownsville…100°

Corona….100°

NYC…..95°……..-5

 

7-21

Newark..l00°

Freehold-Marlboro…100°

Hillsborough-Duke…100°

NYC….92°……-8

 

7-22

Newark…100°

Harrison…100°

Somerset…100°

Brownsville…100°

Corona….100°

NYC…94°…..-6

7-23

Newark….101°

Harrison…101°

Somerset…100°

Freehold-Marlboro…100°

Hillsborough-Duke…101°

Brownsville…101°

Corona…100°

Ozone Park….100°

NYC….95°….-6

 

7-24

Newark 102°

Harrison…102°

Somerset…101°

Freehold-Marlboro…101°

Hillsborough-Duke….102°

Corona…101°

Fresh Kills…100°

NYC….95°….-7