June 2022

[gravitylover]

1.4" in not much more than a half hour. It was fun 

[bluewave]

Another heavy downpour here in SW Suffolk. So the first two days of a June produced heavy downpours. The blocking and Great Lakes trough continues for the next few weeks on the EPS. So more chances for convection from time to time.
 

[Rmine1]

Are we done with the rain for this evening, or is there more to come?

[Intensewind002]

Picked up another 0.61” of rain from this storm so 2 day total is now at 1.66” 

[Brian5671]

1 hour ago, Rmine1 said:

Are we done with the rain for this evening, or is there more to come?

HRRR and 3K NAM have one last round overnight-not as heavy

[doncat]

Missed everything here today...83° high with 0.19" overnight.

[donsutherland1]

A cold front triggered heavy thunderstorms this evening producing highway flooding in parts of the New York City area and Westchester County. A few more showers and thundershowers are possible overnight into tomorrow morning. Afterward, a period of more seasonable temperatures will follow.

During the closing week of May, the MJO moved through Phase 6 with an amplitude as high as 1.909. The only case with an MJO passage through Phase 6 with an amplitude of 1.500 or above during that timeframe was 1998. In 1998, the second half of June was noticeably warmer than the first half. The MJO's ongoing progression and the state of Atlantic blocking could impact the outcome for the second half of June.

The ECMWF seasonal forecast indicates that the summer will be warmer than normal throughout the region and across much of North America. Based on how the pattern has been evolving during the spring transition to summer, it is more likely than not that the warmest anomalies of the summer will likely occur in July and August with June being the coolest of the three months in the Northeast.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -1.0°C for the week centered around May 25. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -1.55°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -1.08°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist through the summer.

The SOI was -13.57 today. That was the second consecutive day on which the SOI was below 0. The last time that happened was during February 13-16 when the SOI was negative for four consecutive days.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -2.646 today. The old daily record was -1.652 from 1993.

On May 31 the MJO was in Phase 7 at an amplitude of 1.910 (RMM). The May 30-adjusted amplitude was 2.033 (RMM).

 

[Rmine1]

56 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

HRRR and 3K NAM have one last round overnight-not as heavy

Ty. Looks like it’s in mid Pa right now. Humidity is brutal 

[Rmine1]

1 hour ago, Brian5671 said:

HRRR and 3K NAM have one last round overnight-not as heavy

NWS basically killed the second round chances 

[STORMANLI]

0.62" Wed

0.18"  Thurs

 

[Allsnow]

13 hours ago, bluewave said:

Another heavy downpour here in SW Suffolk. So the first two days of a June produced heavy downpours. The blocking and Great Lakes trough continues for the next few weeks on the EPS. Some hints of a slow moving closed low as we head into mid-June.  So several more opportunities for heavy convection at times. 
 

Don’t tell @winterwarlock

[donsutherland1]

Morning thoughts…

Clouds, showers, and mist will give way to increasing sunshine. High temperatures will reach the upper 70s and lower 80s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include:

New York City (Central Park): 78°

Newark: 81°

Philadelphia: 83°

Fair weather with near seasonable temperatures will continue into early next week.

Normals:

New York City: 30-Year: 76.0°; 15-Year: 76.2°

Newark: 30-Year: 77.8°; 15-Year: 78.2°

Philadelphia: 30-Year: 79.4°; 15-Year: 79.9°

[CIK62]

The next 8 days are averaging  73degs.(64/82) or +2.

Reached 76 here yesterday.

Today: 72-77, wind variable e. to nw, cloudy early, then improving, 62 tomorrow AM.

Still no 90's till mid-month.

65*(99%RH) here at 7am. FOG, about 1mi.        67* at 9am, same FOG.        66* at Noon, same FOG.       68* at 2pm, Fog Lifting?         69*/70* at 3pm, 4pm, fog mostly lifted.

[bluewave]

We are shifting the persistent June over the top warm  pattern of the last 5 years. The record heat in the Upper Plains to Great Lakes is getting replaced by a cooler trough. So lower chances of  any extended 90° heat for a while. 

 

 

[SACRUS]

Looking like a gorgeous weekend (Fri 63 - tue 6/7) and start of early work week, before some unsettled weather arrives by mid next week and may linger.  Temps capped in the upper 70s to low 80s the next 10 days or so.  Its likely till fathers day weekend the next shot at summer heat (pegging Jun 17 as transition) / we'll see how the second half of June evolves.  

 

 

[Wxoutlooksblog]

7 hours ago, bluewave said:

We are shifting the persistent June over the top warm  pattern of the last 5 years. The record heat in the Upper Plains to Great Lakes is getting replaced by a cooler trough. So lower chances of  any extended 90° heat for a while. 

 

 

NYC can still have a very hot summer even without ANY 90 degree days in June. Two cases in point, 1955, and 1977.  

WX/PT

 

[donsutherland1]

14 minutes ago, Wxoutlooksblog said:

NYC can still have a very hot summer even without ANY 90 degree days in June. Two cases in point, 1955, and 1977.  

WX/PT

 

1955 also saw the kind of strong blocking currently in place during the first 10 days of June.

[bluewave]

51 minutes ago, Wxoutlooksblog said:

NYC can still have a very hot summer even without ANY 90 degree days in June. Two cases in point, 1955, and 1977.  

WX/PT

 

The 1955 and 1977 summers weren’t really that hot compared to recent standards. But the 1955 was much warmer than 1977. The summer of 1977 was mostly remembered for the famous 9 day heatwave in mid-July. JJA 1977 only finished +0.6 relative to that cooler era. 

 

[donsutherland1]

The weekend into early next week will feature abundant sunshine and close to seasonable temperatures. Sunday will likely be the coolest day. No excessive heat appears likely through at least most of next week.

During the closing week of May, the MJO moved through Phase 6 with an amplitude as high as 1.909. The only case with an MJO passage through Phase 6 with an amplitude of 1.500 or above during that timeframe was 1998. In 1998, the second half of June was noticeably warmer than the first half. The MJO's ongoing progression and the state of Atlantic blocking could impact the outcome for the second half of June.

The ECMWF seasonal forecast indicates that the summer will be warmer than normal throughout the region and across much of North America. Based on how the pattern has been evolving during the spring transition to summer, it is more likely than not that the warmest anomalies of the summer will likely occur in July and August with June being the coolest of the three months in the Northeast.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -1.0°C for the week centered around May 25. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -1.55°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -1.08°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist through the summer.

The SOI was +1.62 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -2.756 today. The previous daily record low was -1.770, which was set in 1985.

On June 1 the MJO was in Phase 7 at an amplitude of 1.913 (RMM). The May 31-adjusted amplitude was 1.912 (RMM).

 

[uncle W]

4 hours ago, Wxoutlooksblog said:

NYC can still have a very hot summer even without ANY 90 degree days in June. Two cases in point, 1955, and 1977.  

WX/PT

 

some NYC heat records...

Hottest weeks...1977 is tied for the hottest week but had the highest ave max...1955 had two hot weeks on this list...

high low mean max ..

98.0 76.9 87.4 102 7/07-7/13 1993

98.4 76.3 87.4 104 7/15-7/21 1977

98.3 76.0 87.1 102 8/29-9/04 1953

95.1 78.9 87.0 .98. 8/05-8/11 1896

95.7 77.9 86.8 104 7/18-7/24 2011

94.6 79.0 86.8 .98. 7/14-7/20 2013

95.3 78.0 86.7 .99. 8/09-8/15 1988

96.6 75.1 85.9 102 8/11-8/17 1944

96.1 75.2 85.7 100 8/01-8/07 1955

95.3 75.9 85.6 103 8/04-8/10 2001

94.9 76.1 85.5 102 7/16-7/22 1980

97.3 73.6 85.4 102 7/17-7/23 1991

95.7 75.1 85.4 .98. 8/28-9/03 1973

94.1 76.7 85.4 .96. 7/12-7/18 1981

94.3 76.4 85.4 103 7/04-7/10 2010

95.4 75.1 85.3 100 7/17-7/23 1955

 

[WarrenCtyWx]

4 hours ago, bluewave said:

The 1955 and 1977 summers weren’t really that hot compared to recent standards. But the 1955 was much warmer than 1977. The summer of 1977 was mostly remembered for the famous 9 day heatwave in mid-July. JJA 1977 only finished +0.6 relative to that cooler era. 

 

Isn't 1955 the record holder for 95 degree days though? 

[donsutherland1]

5 minutes ago, WarrenCtyWx said:

Isn't 1955 the record holder for 95 degree days though? 

Yes. It had 16 such days. 1988 is second with 14. That’s at Central Park.

[uncle W]

Extreme heat days 95 or higher.....

16 in 1955

14 in 1988

12 in 1953

12 in 1993

12 in 1999

12 in 2002

10 in 1944

10 in 1980

9.. in 2005

9.. in 1983

9.. in 1966

8.. in 1963

8.. in 1991

8.. in 2010

[Wxoutlooksblog]

This is fantasy range for the GFS but it may worth noting that this heat was gone on 3 out of the last 4 runs of the model. Let's wait a few more days before believing this kind of thing. If it's right, we will have 90+ days during the middle of June.

WX/PT

[LibertyBell]

On 6/2/2022 at 5:53 PM, bluewave said:

Another heavy downpour here in SW Suffolk. So the first two days of a June produced heavy downpours. The blocking and Great Lakes trough continues for the next few weeks on the EPS. So more chances for convection from time to time.
 

It makes it very yucky and humid, Friday was disappointing, not much sun at all, I guess that was  a bust.

[LibertyBell]

4 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

Yes. It had 16 such days. 1988 is second with 14. That’s at Central Park.

For JFK it's 2010 bar none..... 10 days of 95+ and 3 days of 100+

Is that the record year for the other airports too?

 

[LibertyBell]

9 hours ago, bluewave said:

The 1955 and 1977 summers weren’t really that hot compared to recent standards. But the 1955 was much warmer than 1977. The summer of 1977 was mostly remembered for the famous 9 day heatwave in mid-July. JJA 1977 only finished +0.6 relative to that cooler era. 

 

1977 had authentic blazing heat though, rather than just high min days

 

The good old 11 year pattern!

[LibertyBell]

10 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

1955 also saw the kind of strong blocking currently in place during the first 10 days of June.

and a lot of tropical activity.

July 1955 set the average monthly temp record at NYC until July 2010 came along

[LibertyBell]

10 hours ago, Wxoutlooksblog said:

NYC can still have a very hot summer even without ANY 90 degree days in June. Two cases in point, 1955, and 1977.  

WX/PT

 

1980 is a case in point

 

[bluewave]

9 hours ago, WarrenCtyWx said:

Isn't 1955 the record holder for 95 degree days though? 

We can’t compare pre 1990s heat records in NYC to the current ones due to the extensive tree growth artificially lowering high temperature records. The summer of 1955 was 5th highest at Newark for 95° days. It ranked 12th highest for total number of 90° days. It was only 18th warmest for mean maximum temperature at Newark. 

 

Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Jan through Dec
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Year	Number of Days Max Temperature >= 95	Missing Count
1	1993	25	0
2	2010	21	0
3	1988	20	0
-	1944	20	0
4	2021	18	0
5	2012	17	0
-	2011	17	0
-	2002	17	0
-	1955	17	0

 

Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Jan through Dec
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Year	Number of Days Max Temperature >= 90	Missing Count
1	2010	54	0
2	1993	49	0
3	1988	43	0
4	2021	41	0
-	2002	41	0
-	1991	41	0
5	2016	40	0
-	1983	40	0
-	1959	40	0
6	1994	39	0
-	1944	39	0
7	2005	37	0
-	1987	37	0
8	2018	36	0
-	1949	36	0
9	2015	35	0
10	1961	34	0
11	2012	33	0
-	1999	33	0
-	1995	33	0
-	1966	33	0
12	1955	32	0
-	1953	32	0
-	1943	32

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Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Year	Mean Max Temperature	Missing Count
1	1993	88.8	0
2	2010	87.9	0
3	1994	87.6	0
4	2021	87.3	0
5	2011	87.0	0
-	1988	87.0	0
6	1966	86.8	0
7	2016	86.6	0
-	1949	86.6	0
8	2020	86.5	0
9	2005	86.3	0
-	1944	86.3	0
10	1999	86.1	0
-	1995	86.1	0
-	1991	86.1	0
11	1983	86.0	0
12	2012	85.9	0
13	2002	85.8	0
14	2008	85.4	0
-	1987	85.4	0
-	1943	85.4	0
15	1973	85.3	0
16	2018	85.2	0
-	2015	85.2	0
17	2019	85.0	0
-	1953	85.0	0
18	2006	84.9	0
-	1952	84.9	0
19	1955	84.8	0