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The next 10 days have no high probability day showing a High T>75.

Rain looks normal.      LOW off coast on F/S keeps wind East-then N.E. as it drifts away slowly to the south and east?

Monday finally sunny?    Tuesday?

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Morning thoughts…

It will be variably cloudy and milder today. High temperatures will likely reach the middle 60s in much of the region. It will again be warmer in southern New Jersey and southward where the temperature will rise into the 70s. Likely high temperatures around the region include:

New York City (Central Park): 65°

Newark: 67°

Philadelphia: 72°

Much of the week will see temperatures remain generally below normal.

Normals:

New York City: 30-Year: 68.1°; 15-Year: 68.8°

Newark: 30-Year: 69.0°; 15-Year: 69.7°

Philadelphia: 30-Year: 70.9°; 15-Year: 71.4°

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Strong model signal for the persistent cool easterly flow pattern continuing. High pressure builds to our north with waves of low pressure riding  underneath. Next chance of rain for tomorrow. Then a larger cutoff low gets established to our south from Friday into Saturday. The blocking high may get so strong by Sunday that the low eventually gets pushed south. Then a 590 dm + near record ridge builds to our NW next week. Winds should initially be onshore here. So it starts out as one of our famous over the top warm ups which have been very common in recent years. We would need for the high to drift south and turn our winds more SW to have a shot at our first 80s of the month. 
 

90AE883D-2C77-4C61-94C7-54DF16FD8278.thumb.png.c157eba4c8f09fae5ad4e0d261a4f8a9.png
38F27A9A-280E-4C78-BF0C-9529755D4D01.thumb.png.d71a57112f9c240efb9a226aa2c19319.png

DE494912-D649-4F3F-A0D6-3EC4F0859292.thumb.png.e3cd0f34c1627df1620bc468c7c1a916.png

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The next 8 days are averaging  57degs.(48/65) or -4.

Reached 59 here yesterday.

Today: 58-63, wind e. to s.e., p. cloudy-breaks, 49 by tomorrow AM.

Period starting May 12, looked much warmer than just from yesterday's runs. 

  1651579200-6c6fQsGk3tY.png  

53*(92%RH) here at 7am.      57* at 9pm.        62* at Noon.        59* at 1pm.      58* at 3pm.      59* at 4pm.       54* at 8pm.

 

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11 hours without a single post? Has to be a record, a glitch with the site, or incredibly boring weather. 
Same old crappy weather. Day after day.

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The week will feature additional days with unsettled weather. Tomorrow will be mostly cloudy with periods of rain. A few areas could see a thunderstorm. Overall, the first 10 days of the month will probably feature a cool anomaly with temperatures averaging 2°-4° below normal.

During the 1991-2020 period, the April 25-May 5 period saw temperatures average 1°-2° below normal when strong blocking coincided with Niña conditions, as had been the case this year. However, the blocking has now come to an end.

Following such blocking cases, approximately 50% of such cases went on to see a warmer to much warmer than normal second half of May. The breakdown of blocking increases prospects for a warmer second half of the month and an overall warm monthly outcome. Some of the long-range guidance suggests that a dramatic and sustained shift to a warmer regime could develop after May 10.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.9°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -1.1°C for the week centered around April 27. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -1.30°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.93°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist into the start of June.

The SOI was +3.24 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +1.194 today.

On May 1 the MJO was in Phase 4 at an amplitude of 0.320 (RMM). The April 30-adjusted amplitude was 0.565 (RMM).

 

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On 5/3/2022 at 6:13 PM, Rmine1 said:

11 hours without a single post? Has to be a record, a glitch with the site, or incredibly boring weather. 

Good evening Rmine1. It would be a record in the New England sub forum if the fine folks there went 10 minutes without posting. As always …

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4 hours ago, Rmine1 said:

11 hours without a single post? Has to be a record, a glitch with the site, or incredibly boring weather. 

Weather is a bore.

April-May to even June are very boring around here. Severe weather doesn't heat up till mid June the earliest. 

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2 hours ago, SnoSki14 said:

Weather is a bore.

April-May to even June are very boring around here. Severe weather doesn't heat up till mid June the earliest. 

We dont get much severe weather here.  It's nice to get a snowstorm in early April, that bridges the gap to a more exciting summer here.

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18 hours ago, bluewave said:

Strong model signal for the persistent cool easterly flow pattern continuing. High pressure builds to our north with waves of low pressure riding  underneath. Next chance of rain for tomorrow. Then a larger cutoff low gets established to our south from Friday into Saturday. The blocking high may get so strong by Sunday that the low eventually gets pushed south. Then a 590 dm + near record ridge builds to our NW next week. Winds should initially be onshore here. So it starts out as one of our famous over the top warm ups which have been very common in recent years. We would need for the high to drift south and turn our winds more SW to have a shot at our first 80s of the month. 
 

90AE883D-2C77-4C61-94C7-54DF16FD8278.thumb.png.c157eba4c8f09fae5ad4e0d261a4f8a9.png
38F27A9A-280E-4C78-BF0C-9529755D4D01.thumb.png.d71a57112f9c240efb9a226aa2c19319.png

DE494912-D649-4F3F-A0D6-3EC4F0859292.thumb.png.e3cd0f34c1627df1620bc468c7c1a916.png

any early forecasts for the eclipse, Chris?

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18 hours ago, CIK62 said:

The next 8 days are averaging  57degs.(48/65) or -4.

Reached 59 here yesterday.

Today: 58-63, wind e. to s.e., p. cloudy-breaks, 49 by tomorrow AM.

Period starting May 12, looked much warmer than just from yesterday's runs. 

  1651579200-6c6fQsGk3tY.png  

53*(92%RH) here at 7am.      57* at 9pm.        62* at Noon.        59* at 1pm.      58* at 3pm.      59* at 4pm.       54* at 8am.

 

well at least the warmth indicates the sky conditions should be good for the eclipse?

 

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4 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

We dont get much severe weather here.  It's nice to get a snowstorm in early April, that bridges the gap to a more exciting summer here.

The EF3 tornado in Mullica Hills NJ last September 1st was mind blowing. It definitely can happen, albeit rare for such a powerful tornado to form here. 
 

That thing looked like a Deep South multi vortex wedge; insane. 

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38 minutes ago, Volcanic Winter said:

The EF3 tornado in Mullica Hills NJ last September 1st was mind blowing. It definitely can happen, albeit rare for such a powerful tornado to form here. 
 

That thing looked like a Deep South multi vortex wedge; insane. 

I've always thought that kind of severe weather is much more common in the fall.  Because of tropical weather and also because the waters are much warmer then.

November was rowdy too.  I have a feeling we might have a similar fall this year with the warm SST and La Nina still present.

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Morning thoughts…

It will be mostly cloudy with some showers and periods of rain. High temperatures will likely reach the lower and middle 60s in much of the region. It will again be warmer in southern New Jersey and southward where the temperature will rise into the 70s. Likely high temperatures around the region include:

New York City (Central Park): 65°

Newark: 66°

Philadelphia: 74°

Much of the week will see temperatures remain generally below normal.

Normals:

New York City: 30-Year: 68.4°; 15-Year: 69.1°

Newark: 30-Year: 69.3°; 15-Year: 70.0°

Philadelphia: 30-Year: 71.2°; 15-Year: 71.7°

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The next 8 days are averaging  58degs.(50/66) or -3.

Reached 62 here yesterday early, was in mid 50's later.

Today: 58-62, drizzle till Noon, cloudy-breaks?, 54 tomorrow AM.

HW Warning Next Week At This Time (80's+ on the GFS for 9 days!)

Pop Goes the Weasel? or SE Ridge?

1651644000-6tsplWlfNS8.png

53*(92%RH) here at 7am.{was 50 at 3am}.       60* at 1pm, some Fog.     61* at 2pm, sun tried to appear.

Sun really came out by 4pm and T went up to 69* at 5pm.

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13 hours ago, Rmine1 said:

11 hours without a single post? Has to be a record, a glitch with the site, or incredibly boring weather. 

Crappy NE back door flow days don’t lend themselves to many posts. :( 

Unfortunately the writing was on the wall for this one. It’s been a feature of the last several Nina springs. 

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Crappy NE back door flow days don’t lend themselves to many posts.  
Unfortunately the writing was on the wall for this one. It’s been a feature of the last several Nina springs. 
Looks like another week of this

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Pretty impressive heavy rainfall gradient for the cutoff low from Friday into Saturday. This would already have 100 posts of we were talking snow. All the guidance has a different forecast for how far north the heavy rains come.

4FCE6E46-4235-4B05-B214-0C6A6A3DAC9F.thumb.png.6958c40772a0722df14b0041139714ae.png

51BCFCEC-6843-40BE-BA0B-1A31321B6A06.thumb.png.172e0c694294b32c14e16e3486a43ced.png

 

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Pretty impressive heavy rainfall gradient for the cutoff low from Friday into Saturday. This would already have 100 posts of we were talking snow. All the guidance has a different forecast for how far north the heavy rains come.

4FCE6E46-4235-4B05-B214-0C6A6A3DAC9F.thumb.png.6958c40772a0722df14b0041139714ae.png
51BCFCEC-6843-40BE-BA0B-1A31321B6A06.thumb.png.172e0c694294b32c14e16e3486a43ced.png
 
In the end it doesn't matter much. It will be a cloudy onshore flow.

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8 minutes ago, tek1972 said:

In the end it doesn't matter much. It will be a cloudy onshore flow.

Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk
 

Great pattern for the surfers with easterly gales and 10 foot + swells from Saturday into Tuesday.

 

1A530013-55D8-4191-AE93-EABCF08A7EB4.thumb.png.c52d3dbf121a34a13e3ed4ceec6a76df.png

8BC78C82-9FAA-4636-8184-77BE5C8BD52B.thumb.png.cc3f1a2836024a424f9537becc6f93bc.png


276A3BB0-4101-4FCC-B582-FD25ED4E0B54.thumb.png.9a0b6ffeb954075d1a83def6a886ac91.png

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