May 2022

[bluewave]

2 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

why are the SST so cold this year--- cold spring?

 

The actual SSTs are still In the upper 50s which will give you a very cool sea breeze. So around 20° colder than the recent summers with SSTs pushing 80° at times. But the departures relative to average are the warmest on record for this time year in the North Atlantic. 
 

 

 

[LibertyBell]

17 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The actual SSTs are still In the upper 50s which will give you a very cool sea breeze. So around 20° colder than the recent summers with SSTs pushing 80° at times. But the departures relative to average are the warmest on record for this time year in the North Atlantic. 
 

 

 

But what about for our area, are they still warmer than normal for this time of year?  When do we typically see 60 degree sea surface temps?

But in terms of what effects it has on coastal areas, they wouldn't have any effect if we had a land breeze correct?  

[BucksCO_PA]

25 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

But what about for our area, are they still warmer than normal for this time of year?  When do we typically see 60 degree sea surface temps?

But in terms of what effects it has on coastal areas, they wouldn't have any effect if we had a land breeze correct?  

https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/coastal-water-temperature-guide/catl.html

[donsutherland1]

Cooler air continues to spill into the region. High temperatures could top out in the upper 60s in parts of the northern Middle Atlantic region tomorrow and Wednesday.

Overall, the second half of the month will likely be warmer than normal and there remains some possibility of an overall warm monthly outcome. The potential also exists for several very warm to perhaps hot days.

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, Galveston has an implied 95% probability of recording its warmest May on record. Galveston will likely finish with a monthly mean temperature ranging from 82.3° to 82.9°. The existing record is 80.4°, which was set in 2018. Galveston has already recorded its most 90° high temperatures and 80° low temperatures on record for May.

Some of the guidance has suggested that June could be warmer than normal in the Middle Atlantic and New England areas. The latest EPS weeklies suggest otherwise.

The ECMWF seasonal forecast indicates that the summer will be warmer than normal throughout the region and across much of North America.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.5°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -1.1°C for the week centered around May 18. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -1.65°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -1.07°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist into the start of June.

The SOI was +22.69 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +1.594 today.

On May 21 the MJO was in Phase 8 at an amplitude of 1.045 (RMM). The May 20-adjusted amplitude was 1.323 (RMM).

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 66% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal May (1991-2020 normal). May will likely finish with a mean temperature near 63.7° (0.5° above normal).

 

[jm1220]

8 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

But what about for our area, are they still warmer than normal for this time of year?  When do we typically see 60 degree sea surface temps?

But in terms of what effects it has on coastal areas, they wouldn't have any effect if we had a land breeze correct?  

Land breezes cause upwelling and cooler water. Onshore winds suppress it and warm the water faster.

[LibertyBell]

4 hours ago, jm1220 said:

Land breezes cause upwelling and cooler water. Onshore winds suppress it and warm the water faster.

but paradoxically what causes warmer waters makes the land cooler lol.

when is the peak of SST-- in September?

 

[donsutherland1]

Morning thoughts…

Today will become partly sunny. It will be unseasonably cool. High temperatures will reach the upper 60s and lower 70s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include:

New York City (Central Park): 68°

Newark: 71°

Philadelphia: 70°

Cool weather will persist through Thursday.

Normals:

New York City: 30-Year: 73.3°; 15-Year: 74.0°

Newark: 30-Year: 74.7°; 15-Year: 75.6°

Philadelphia: 30-Year: 76.5°; 15-Year: 77.1°

[qg_omega]

Weekend looks awful

[CIK62]

The last 8 days of May are averaging 69degs.(62/75) or +2.

Month to date is  62.5[+0.4].       May should end near  64.2[+1.0].

Reached 78 here yesterday.

Today: 63-67, wind e., cloudy with breaks, 55 by tomorrow AM.

62*(68%RH) here at 7am.        67* at Noon.        64* at 3pm.       59* at 9pm.

 

 

[SnoSki14]

1 hour ago, qg_omega said:

Weekend looks awful

Looks warm but unsettled. Nothing like last year's disaster. 

[Allsnow]

11 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

Looks warm but unsettled. Nothing like last year's disaster. 

Yeah, last year it was it the 40’s 50’s 

[qg_omega]

Euro is a laughable model 

[bluewave]

20 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

Is this an extension of the climate warming the most the further north you are that started with the Arctic warming?  If so doesn't that mean the warming begins from the "top" down"-- that is the most extreme warmth will be the further north you go-- I believe this was well predicted by the climate models.

 

This May is just an extension of recent summers since 2018 with record blocking in SE Canada. Over the top warm ups are common in this pattern like we saw a few weeks ago with the record heat in Northern New England. Then we get intervals with the ridge flattening out like this past weekend. So places away from the sea breeze make a run on record highs. But the deep westerly flow heat events that make it to JFK like we saw from 2010 to 2013 are absent. Then there is the occasional cutoff low getting stuck underneath the block. So a fairly predictable pattern. 
 

May 2022

Summers since 2018

 

 

[SACRUS]

Weekend coming into view and a matter of timing with the cut off ULL.  Fri - Sun look cloudy and a bit unsettled with scattered storms.  Once we clear the cutoff it may be off to the races for the next heat surge in the 5/31 - 6/2 period.

[MJO812]

Cape Cod is really nice. Very chilly though right now.

[Brian5671]

GFS now progressive-cold front Friday night then clears out for the weekend

[forkyfork]

cutoffs r hard

[SnoSki14]

45 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

GFS now progressive-cold front Friday night then clears out for the weekend

Flip flopping like crazy 

[FPizz]

Looks like the Ukie clears things out Sat morning.

[LibertyBell]

5 hours ago, bluewave said:

This May is just an extension of recent summers since 2018 with record blocking in SE Canada. Over the top warm ups are common in this pattern like we saw a few weeks ago with the record heat in Northern New England. Then we get intervals with the ridge flattening out like this past weekend. So places away from the sea breeze make a run on record highs. But the deep westerly flow heat events that make it to JFK like we saw from 2010 to 2013 are absent. Then there is the occasional cutoff low getting stuck underneath the block. So a fairly predictable pattern. 
 

May 2022

Summers since 2018

 

 

Chris, are the lack of these deep westerly flow events due to the high now pushing further north?

Also, for the past two springs in particular, we've had a long stretch of dry low humidity weather, and as a result my allergies came to an early  Is that because of more spring blocking in the last two years?

 

[LibertyBell]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

The GEM has been most consistent as the GFS and Euro have been flipping from run to run.

Whats the reason for the flip flopping? Is a piece of this out over a poorly sampled region?

 

[forkyfork]

well the euro isn't budging 

[bluewave]

15 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Whats the reason for the flip flopping? Is a piece of this out over a poorly sampled region?

 

The reason is that models struggle with closed lows in these blocky patterns. They all seem to agree on rain from Friday into Saturday. The 12z Euro gets the front to our east by later Saturday.  So a backloaded Memorial Day weekend with Sunday and Monday better than Friday and Saturday.

 

[Allsnow]

Speed it up speed it up 

[SnoSki14]

Euro has some record heat for early June before any blocking takes over

[LibertyBell]

3 hours ago, SnoSki14 said:

Euro has some record heat for early June before any blocking takes over

record heat for early June would be near 100

hopefully deep westerly flow or some more of this onshore stuff?

[donsutherland1]

Tomorrow will be another unseasonably cool day. High temperatures could top out in the upper 60s in parts of the northern Middle Atlantic region tomorrow.

Overall, the second half of the month will likely be warmer than normal and there remains some possibility of an overall warm monthly outcome. The potential also exists for several very warm to perhaps hot days.

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, Galveston has an implied 97% probability of recording its warmest May on record. Galveston will likely finish with a monthly mean temperature ranging from 82.3° to 82.9°. The existing record is 80.4°, which was set in 2018. Galveston has already recorded its most 90° high temperatures and 80° low temperatures on record for May.

Some of the guidance has suggested that June could be warmer than normal in the Middle Atlantic and New England areas. The latest EPS weeklies suggest otherwise.

The ECMWF seasonal forecast indicates that the summer will be warmer than normal throughout the region and across much of North America.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.5°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -1.1°C for the week centered around May 18. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -1.65°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -1.07°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist into the start of June.

The SOI was +33.57 today. That smashed the daily record of +14.27 from 2011.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +1.824 today.

On May 22 the MJO was in Phase 1 at an amplitude of 0.744 (RMM). The May 21-adjusted amplitude was 1.047 (RMM).

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 64% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal May (1991-2020 normal). May will likely finish with a mean temperature near 63.7° (0.5° above normal).

 

[CIK62]

Holiday Weekend:     Fr.i/Sat. definitely NG.         Sun./Mon. still an open book.

At any rate, the GFS keeps trying to produce a tropical system for the last week's worth of runs and thinks it has it now with this bowling ball,  which has just followed a Donna-1960 like path all the way up the EC from Florida:

[Gravity Wave]

 

1 hour ago, CIK62 said:

Holiday Weekend:     Fr.i/Sat. definitely NG.         Sun./Mon. still an open book.

At any rate, the GFS keeps trying to produce a tropical system for the last week's worth of runs and thinks it has it now with this bowling ball,  which has just followed a Donna-1960 like path all the way up the EC from Florida:

The entire coast from Cape Hatteras to Cape Cod is overdue for an impactful Hurricane strike (I don't really count Sandy, and definitely don't count Irene). Another stretch like 1938-1955 would be ugly.

[LibertyBell]

6 hours ago, Gravity Wave said:

 

The entire coast from Cape Hatteras to Cape Cod is overdue for an impactful Hurricane strike (I don't really count Sandy, and definitely don't count Irene). Another stretch like 1938-1955 would be ugly.

Agreed, but it won't be happening in May (or June).