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1 minute ago, sussexcountyobs said:

Moderate snow falling. All but paved surfaces getting white. 34° This was supposed to be rain under 1500 feet. Zero rain. Started as snow.

I noticed a good deal of evaporational cooling here, which they sometimes don't forecast well.

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18 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

Don’t be. I’d rather be here for snow for the last 10 winters generally than anywhere in central PA other than orographically favored places. It’s a lousy place to live if you want major snow events. 

Yeah, Long Island has done better than State College with snowfall since 2009. Dramatic reversal from the late 70s to early 90s. Much better benchmark snowstorm tracks now.

 

Monthly Total Snowfall for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Year
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Season
Mean 0.0 0.6 5.8 15.0 11.4 6.9 0.4 T 40.1
2021-2022 0.0 T 0.3 31.8 3.3 1.6 0.0 M 37.0
2020-2021 T 0.0 7.5 1.1 24.9 T T 0.0 33.5
2019-2020 0.0 0.1 4.2 2.5 0.0 T T T 6.8
2018-2019 0.0 4.3 T 0.9 3.5 4.1 T 0.0 12.8
2017-2018 0.0 T 6.0 22.0 1.4 31.9 4.6 0.0 65.9
2016-2017 T T 3.2 14.0 14.7 7.4 T 0.0 39.3
2015-2016 0.0 0.0 T 24.8 13.2 3.2 0.2 0.0 41.4
2014-2015 0.0 T 0.4 30.2 13.4 19.7 0.0 0.0 63.7
2013-2014 0.0 0.3 8.1 25.2 24.5 5.4 0.2 0.0 63.7
2012-2013 0.0 4.2 0.6 3.3 31.4 7.4 0.0 0.0 46.9
2011-2012 0.3 0.0 T 3.8 0.6 T 0.0 0.0 4.7
2010-2011 0.0 T 14.9 34.4 3.9 2.1 T 0.0 55.3
2009-2010 0.0 0.0 25.3 6.4 21.7 0.4 0.0 0.0 53.8
2008-2009 0.0 T 10.4 8.9 3.3 13.6 T 0.0 36.2


 

Monthly Total Snowfall for STATE COLLEGE, PA
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Year
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Season
Mean 0.6 2.1 6.0 9.7 11.6 4.8 0.6 T 35.4
2021-2022 0.0 0.8 2.1 13.1 2.5 7.8 T M 26.3
2020-2021 0.0 T 16.3 4.2 25.2 T T T 45.7
2019-2020 0.0 2.0 2.3 5.3 2.0 0.9 0.7 T 13.2
2018-2019 T 11.7 0.2 11.6 11.7 4.9 T 0.0 40.1
2017-2018 0.0 0.3 6.6 5.0 9.7 6.9 5.6 0.0 34.1
2016-2017 T 0.5 6.5 5.0 9.5 16.3 T 0.0 37.8
2015-2016 T T T 9.9 6.4 0.2 1.4 T 17.9
2014-2015 0.0 5.2 2.5 21.3 14.7 7.8 0.5 0.0 52.0
2013-2014 T 4.0 11.1 10.0 26.7 T T 0.0 51.8
2012-2013 0.0 1.0 13.9 8.6 9.8 10.3 T 0.0 43.6
2011-2012 3.0 T 1.5 9.2 5.3 T T 0.0 19.0
2010-2011 T T 3.2 14.2 9.9 11.1 T 0.0 38.4
2009-2010 4.9 T 14.0 3.9 25.5 0.8 T T 49.1
2008-2009 0.2 3.9 4.0 14.3 3.9 T T 0.0 26.3



 

Monthly Total Snowfall for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Year
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Season
Mean T 0.8 2.8 7.2 7.1 3.9 1.3 T 23.0
1978-1979 0.0 4.0 T 6.9 17.2 T T 0.0 28.1
1979-1980 T 0.0 1.5 4.0 1.5 2.0 0.0 0.0 9.0
1980-1981 0.0 T 0.5 13.2 T 7.1 0.0 0.0 20.8
1981-1982 0.0 0.0 1.0 18.1 0.3 T 16.0 0.0 35.4
1982-1983 0.0 0.0 3.2 1.5 26.1 T 1.1 0.0 31.9
1983-1984 0.0 T 2.6 11.9 T 13.0 0.0 0.0 27.5
1984-1985 0.0 T 4.7 13.5 8.7 T T 0.0 26.9
1985-1986 0.0 T 2.1 2.6 10.4 0.1 T 0.0 15.2
1986-1987 0.0 T 3.4 8.8 8.6 1.7 0.0 0.0 22.5
1987-1988 0.0 1.1 4.2 10.7 0.1 3.4 0.0 0.0 19.5
1988-1989 0.0 0.0 10.4 4.4 1.2 3.0 T 0.0 19.0
1989-1990 0.0 7.6 0.2 2.0 2.0 4.2 3.0 0.0 19.0
1990-1991 0.0 0.0 4.0 3.6 4.3 1.9 0.0 T 13.8
1991-1992 0.0 0.0 2.0 2.3 1.5 7.6 T 0.0 13.4
1992-1993 0.0 0.0 2.1 2.3 10.9 13.3 0.0 0.0 28.6
1993-1994 0.0 T 3.2 8.8 20.0 5.0 0.0 T 37.0

 

 

Monthly Total Snowfall for STATE COLLEGE, PA
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Year
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Season
Mean T 2.2 6.5 12.4 10.9 11.9 1.8 T 45.7
1978-1979 T 2.1 6.8 10.5 19.7 0.8 T 0.0 39.9
1979-1980 T T 1.2 4.3 6.2 6.2 T 0.0 17.9
1980-1981 T 8.9 4.7 8.2 9.4 7.6 T 0.0 38.8
1981-1982 T 0.2 7.9 17.8 17.5 15.2 10.5 0.0 69.1
1982-1983 T T 1.8 6.7 10.9 3.2 T 0.0 22.6
1983-1984 0.0 3.1 7.4 12.8 2.7 24.2 T 0.0 50.2
1984-1985 0.0 0.4 3.3 11.7 10.7 0.8 4.7 0.0 31.6
1985-1986 0.0 T 9.6 11.7 19.9 1.0 0.1 0.0 42.3
1986-1987 0.0 3.0 0.8 35.1 5.8 5.7 1.9 0.0 52.3
1987-1988 T 7.8 8.2 9.9 7.5 5.4 0.2 0.0 39.0
1988-1989 T 0.1 2.5 7.8 1.6 11.6 0.1 T 23.7
1989-1990 T 3.0 12.2 13.5 3.4 3.7 5.0 T 40.8
1990-1991 T 0.1 10.9 7.9 2.7 12.3 0.5 0.0 34.4
1991-1992 0.0 2.6 0.7 4.9 2.3 15.6 0.8 0.0 26.9
1992-1993 T T 19.9 2.3 23.3 42.4 4.6 0.0 92.5
1993-1994 T 4.3 5.6 33.6 30.5 35.3 T 0.0 109.3


 

 

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I've already blown past my forecasted low of 37.   Now down to 35.6 and I am starting to see a coating on the deck and in the mulch.  

I'm not an expert, but another couple of degrees and things get entertaining for a while, especially given the forecast precipitation amounts.  

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1 hour ago, bluewave said:

Yeah, Long Island has done better than State College with snowfall since 2009. Dramatic reversal from the late 70s to early 90s. Much better benchmark snowstorm tracks now.

 

Monthly Total Snowfall for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Year
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Season
Mean 0.0 0.6 5.8 15.0 11.4 6.9 0.4 T 40.1
2021-2022 0.0 T 0.3 31.8 3.3 1.6 0.0 M 37.0
2020-2021 T 0.0 7.5 1.1 24.9 T T 0.0 33.5
2019-2020 0.0 0.1 4.2 2.5 0.0 T T T 6.8
2018-2019 0.0 4.3 T 0.9 3.5 4.1 T 0.0 12.8
2017-2018 0.0 T 6.0 22.0 1.4 31.9 4.6 0.0 65.9
2016-2017 T T 3.2 14.0 14.7 7.4 T 0.0 39.3
2015-2016 0.0 0.0 T 24.8 13.2 3.2 0.2 0.0 41.4
2014-2015 0.0 T 0.4 30.2 13.4 19.7 0.0 0.0 63.7
2013-2014 0.0 0.3 8.1 25.2 24.5 5.4 0.2 0.0 63.7
2012-2013 0.0 4.2 0.6 3.3 31.4 7.4 0.0 0.0 46.9
2011-2012 0.3 0.0 T 3.8 0.6 T 0.0 0.0 4.7
2010-2011 0.0 T 14.9 34.4 3.9 2.1 T 0.0 55.3
2009-2010 0.0 0.0 25.3 6.4 21.7 0.4 0.0 0.0 53.8
2008-2009 0.0 T 10.4 8.9 3.3 13.6 T 0.0 36.2


 

Monthly Total Snowfall for STATE COLLEGE, PA
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Year
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Season
Mean 0.6 2.1 6.0 9.7 11.6 4.8 0.6 T 35.4
2021-2022 0.0 0.8 2.1 13.1 2.5 7.8 T M 26.3
2020-2021 0.0 T 16.3 4.2 25.2 T T T 45.7
2019-2020 0.0 2.0 2.3 5.3 2.0 0.9 0.7 T 13.2
2018-2019 T 11.7 0.2 11.6 11.7 4.9 T 0.0 40.1
2017-2018 0.0 0.3 6.6 5.0 9.7 6.9 5.6 0.0 34.1
2016-2017 T 0.5 6.5 5.0 9.5 16.3 T 0.0 37.8
2015-2016 T T T 9.9 6.4 0.2 1.4 T 17.9
2014-2015 0.0 5.2 2.5 21.3 14.7 7.8 0.5 0.0 52.0
2013-2014 T 4.0 11.1 10.0 26.7 T T 0.0 51.8
2012-2013 0.0 1.0 13.9 8.6 9.8 10.3 T 0.0 43.6
2011-2012 3.0 T 1.5 9.2 5.3 T T 0.0 19.0
2010-2011 T T 3.2 14.2 9.9 11.1 T 0.0 38.4
2009-2010 4.9 T 14.0 3.9 25.5 0.8 T T 49.1
2008-2009 0.2 3.9 4.0 14.3 3.9 T T 0.0 26.3



 

Monthly Total Snowfall for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Year
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Season
Mean T 0.8 2.8 7.2 7.1 3.9 1.3 T 23.0
1978-1979 0.0 4.0 T 6.9 17.2 T T 0.0 28.1
1979-1980 T 0.0 1.5 4.0 1.5 2.0 0.0 0.0 9.0
1980-1981 0.0 T 0.5 13.2 T 7.1 0.0 0.0 20.8
1981-1982 0.0 0.0 1.0 18.1 0.3 T 16.0 0.0 35.4
1982-1983 0.0 0.0 3.2 1.5 26.1 T 1.1 0.0 31.9
1983-1984 0.0 T 2.6 11.9 T 13.0 0.0 0.0 27.5
1984-1985 0.0 T 4.7 13.5 8.7 T T 0.0 26.9
1985-1986 0.0 T 2.1 2.6 10.4 0.1 T 0.0 15.2
1986-1987 0.0 T 3.4 8.8 8.6 1.7 0.0 0.0 22.5
1987-1988 0.0 1.1 4.2 10.7 0.1 3.4 0.0 0.0 19.5
1988-1989 0.0 0.0 10.4 4.4 1.2 3.0 T 0.0 19.0
1989-1990 0.0 7.6 0.2 2.0 2.0 4.2 3.0 0.0 19.0
1990-1991 0.0 0.0 4.0 3.6 4.3 1.9 0.0 T 13.8
1991-1992 0.0 0.0 2.0 2.3 1.5 7.6 T 0.0 13.4
1992-1993 0.0 0.0 2.1 2.3 10.9 13.3 0.0 0.0 28.6
1993-1994 0.0 T 3.2 8.8 20.0 5.0 0.0 T 37.0

 

 

Monthly Total Snowfall for STATE COLLEGE, PA
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Year
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Season
Mean T 2.2 6.5 12.4 10.9 11.9 1.8 T 45.7
1978-1979 T 2.1 6.8 10.5 19.7 0.8 T 0.0 39.9
1979-1980 T T 1.2 4.3 6.2 6.2 T 0.0 17.9
1980-1981 T 8.9 4.7 8.2 9.4 7.6 T 0.0 38.8
1981-1982 T 0.2 7.9 17.8 17.5 15.2 10.5 0.0 69.1
1982-1983 T T 1.8 6.7 10.9 3.2 T 0.0 22.6
1983-1984 0.0 3.1 7.4 12.8 2.7 24.2 T 0.0 50.2
1984-1985 0.0 0.4 3.3 11.7 10.7 0.8 4.7 0.0 31.6
1985-1986 0.0 T 9.6 11.7 19.9 1.0 0.1 0.0 42.3
1986-1987 0.0 3.0 0.8 35.1 5.8 5.7 1.9 0.0 52.3
1987-1988 T 7.8 8.2 9.9 7.5 5.4 0.2 0.0 39.0
1988-1989 T 0.1 2.5 7.8 1.6 11.6 0.1 T 23.7
1989-1990 T 3.0 12.2 13.5 3.4 3.7 5.0 T 40.8
1990-1991 T 0.1 10.9 7.9 2.7 12.3 0.5 0.0 34.4
1991-1992 0.0 2.6 0.7 4.9 2.3 15.6 0.8 0.0 26.9
1992-1993 T T 19.9 2.3 23.3 42.4 4.6 0.0 92.5
1993-1994 T 4.3 5.6 33.6 30.5 35.3 T 0.0 109.3


 

 

State College’s snow average was ahead of Boston by several inches in the 1981-2010 averages and went several inches behind with the new 1991-2020. Shows how cruddy it’s become there during our bonanza. They get the occasional good season still but no doubt something climactic has shifted to favoring these big coastal storms vs inland/huggers.

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5 hours ago, Tatamy said:

Do you know what the elevation of your property is?  Right now it looks like the snow line up that way is on the order of about 1500’.

around 2000 feet, maybe a little higher very close to Lake Harmony, my ears pop there, so it might be 2200-2400 feet

Okay my sister is there right now and she said that there has been a lot of thunder with snow and blindingly heavy snow for awhile, around 3 inches already but then it mixed with and changed to rain for awhile and right now it's a mixture of rain and snow.

Said there was nonaccumulating snow yesterday and it's been snowing today since 3 PM and thundersnow tonight with very heavy snow and high winds and about 30 min ago it changed to rain but it just started mixing back with snow.

 

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2 hours ago, jm1220 said:

State College’s snow average was ahead of Boston by several inches in the 1981-2010 averages and went several inches behind with the new 1991-2020. Shows how cruddy it’s become there during our bonanza. They get the occasional good season still but no doubt something climactic has shifted to favoring these big coastal storms vs inland/huggers.

well it's now shifting back.

It still amazes me how it can snow near the ocean with how mild the waters are.

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2 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

well it's now shifting back.

It still amazes me how it can snow near the ocean with how mild the waters are.

State College may have 30" for the season with this storm. Don't know how much they have yet from today but that's very lousy once again. The inland runners that do happen like today blow up too late now for central PA. 3/14/17 was good in central PA but was best in the Poconos and upstate NY. Once again with my 31.5" here I win. Could've been significantly better if we had the blocking coming up in Feb instead.

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Drove through some pretty serious flooding this morning on the cross island. The throgs neck ramp was closed. I also have some flooding on campus due to clogged drains (flower peddles) flood events are a dime a dozen now. I really need to upgrade our drainage systems. 
meanwhile upstate in to Vermont are getting crushed with snow. Looks like a Vermont trip is in the cards for this weekend.

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5 hours ago, jm1220 said:

State College may have 30" for the season with this storm. Don't know how much they have yet from today but that's very lousy once again. The inland runners that do happen like today blow up too late now for central PA. 3/14/17 was good in central PA but was best in the Poconos and upstate NY. Once again with my 31.5" here I win. Could've been significantly better if we had the blocking coming up in Feb instead.

Last winter was probably good there too but like you said the storms blow up later and hit places like Binghamton better than State College

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Morning thoughts…

Clouds and showers will give way to partly sunny skies. It will be windy and cool. High temperatures will likely reach the lower and middle 50s in much of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include:

New York City (Central Park): 52°

Newark: 54°

Philadelphia: 55°

Milder air will return after midweek.

Normals:

New York City: 30-Year: 63.4°; 15-Year: 63.7°

Newark: 30-Year: 64.2°; 15-Year: 64.5°

Philadelphia: 30-Year: 66.2°; 15-Year: 66.6°

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The next 8 days are averaging 55degs.(48/62) or -1.

Reached 51 here yesterday.

Today: 49-52, wind w. and breezy, cloudy early, some clearing late, 40 by tomorrow AM.

Maybe two 70 degree readings before month ends and May starts off BN.

CFSv2 for the next 7.:     Cooler than the GEFSext.       The CFS says no real warmup till Week 3 of May.

1651017600-G1xMndSBaAI.png

40*(99%RH) here at 7am.{was 48 at 3am}     43* at 8am.      47* at Noon.      53* at 5pm.       47* at 7pm.

 

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12” reported near BGM. If this was a month earlier there would be widespread 2 feet in upstate NY. As is there will probably be a decent number of 15” reports near where that crazy deform band parked. This is another example of how coastal storms mature later now. Heavy amounts in NE PA near the Poconos and upstate NY but not back into Central PA. It dryslots there too soon in these storms and the deform band forms too late/east. There are likely 6” or so amounts in high elevations there. Also some bad luck with it falling during daylight. 

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Spring backdoor pattern setting up from the weekend into next week. Warmest temperatures to our west with the front stalled out nearby So a battle of the SE Ridge and the -AO block. The -AO should finally win out later in April forcing the front  further south. 
 

626E757F-2352-420B-A91D-A4D03F628B74.thumb.png.41f09c5e0f83e6bfb157562689a80789.png


5BF77E63-00E0-4F71-936B-D57C62E1547E.thumb.png.7fc302d1aee0d3f199c171fa673f5a57.png

0C4FF2E3-68BB-4F60-8288-05EC11BA459A.thumb.png.7250fde0f09d670624ece3d3036c6a20.png

 

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2 hours ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

Drove through some pretty serious flooding this morning on the cross island. The throgs neck ramp was closed. I also have some flooding on campus due to clogged drains (flower peddles) flood events are a dime a dozen now. I really need to upgrade our drainage systems. 
meanwhile upstate in to Vermont are getting crushed with snow. Looks like a Vermont trip is in the cards for this weekend.

Looks like 2” for LGA and Central Park. Some of the short range models were showing a 2” area there and there was a local heavy rain band that parked overhead. Winds also gusted >50 over LI. 

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12 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Spring backdoor pattern setting up from the weekend into next week. Warmest temperatures to our west with the front stalled out nearby So a battle of the SE Ridge and the -AO block. The -AO should finally win out later in April forcing the front  further south. 
 

626E757F-2352-420B-A91D-A4D03F628B74.thumb.png.41f09c5e0f83e6bfb157562689a80789.png


5BF77E63-00E0-4F71-936B-D57C62E1547E.thumb.png.7fc302d1aee0d3f199c171fa673f5a57.png

0C4FF2E3-68BB-4F60-8288-05EC11BA459A.thumb.png.7250fde0f09d670624ece3d3036c6a20.png

 

Weather-wise it doesn't look too bad though. Mostly 60s for highs with a couple 70+ days and pretty dry. 

Probably not far from normal overall when averaged over next 2 weeks 

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6 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

Weather-wise it doesn't look too bad though. Mostly 60s for highs with a couple 70+ days and pretty dry. 

Probably not far from normal overall when averaged over next 2 weeks 

For NJ it might not be too bad. East of the city these back door patterns are often raw and full of stratus. Hopefully not. And hopefully it can be short lived and the blocking is over done. 

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