April 2022

[nycwinter]

i am looking forward to the cool days for this time of year coming up!!

[psv88]

1 hour ago, FPizz said:

April sucks around here more times than not.  Worst month of the year imo.  

The worst part of April is the constant wind

[BucksCO_PA]

3 hours ago, qg_omega said:

20 days early?  I don’t think so

Locally, SE PA, the leaf out was running significantly eary until the pronounced late March cold shot pumped the brakes. Last 30 days are averaging around -1.7 degrees & I'd estimate currently around a week ahead a schedule thanks in large part to the 80 degree weather earlier this month.

I've been out to New Hyde Park, Dix Hills & Bohemia enough in the spring to know its a whole different schedule out on the island.

[bluewave]

The spring bloom was 2-3 weeks ahead of schedule in some spots before the late March hard freeze. 
 

 

[winterwx21]

Sunny and 71 degrees here. Spectacular day. Probably our last 70 degree day for awhile.

[thunderbolt]

North Dakota is the state for snow The last couple weeks

[bluewave]

We were 2nd behind 2012 in 70° days by the start of astronomical spring. But have fallen back to 6th place with the 10th day of the year to reach 70° today. Last year finished in 1st place with 177 days.

 

Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Ending Date	Number of Days Max Temperature >= 70 Jan 1 to Mar 21	Missing Count
1	2012-03-21	6	0
2	2022-03-21	4	0
-	2020-03-21	4	0
-	1990-03-21	4	0
-	1946-03-21	4	0
-	1945-03-21	4	0

 

 

Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Ending Date	Number of Days Max Temperature >= 70 Jan 1 to Apr 22	Missing Count
1	1945-04-22	19	0
2	2012-04-22	18	0
3	2010-04-22	13	0
-	1977-04-22	13	0
4	1976-04-22	12	0
-	1954-04-22	12	0
5	2016-04-22	11	0
-	2002-04-22	11	0
-	1987-04-22	11	0
-	1985-04-22	11	0
-	1946-04-22	11	0
6	1998-04-22	10	0
-	1981-04-22	10	0
	2022-04-22	10	0

 

Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Jan through Dec
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Year	Number of Days Max Temperature >= 70	Missing Count
1	2021	177	0
2	2010	173	0
3	2015	171	0
-	1985	171	0
4	2007	170	0
5	1994	169	0
-	1946	169	0

 

[donsutherland1]

Somewhat cooler air will return for the start of the weekend. Sunday could be somewhat milder before the recent development of a blocking leads to a more sustained cool pattern that could last into the beginning of May.

During the 1991-2020 period, the April 25-May 5 period saw temperatures average 1°-2° below normal when strong blocking coincided with Niña conditions. Afterward, approximately 50% of such cases went on to see a warmer to much warmer than normal second half of May.

Meanwhile, parts of the Northern Plains, including Minot, ND, will see another blizzard dump heavy wind-driven snow late tomorrow into Sunday.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.7°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.9°C for the week centered around April 13. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.80°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.88°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist into the start of June.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly of -1.7°C is the lowest such figure on record for a week centered around April 13. The old record was -1.4°C, which was set in 1994. Since 1982, there were five prior cases where the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.5°C or colder. 40% of those cases saw La Niña conditions the following winter; 40% saw neutral-cool ENSO conditions that approached but did not reach La Niña status. 20% of those cases saw an El Niño develop during the following winter. More immediately, the magnitude of cool anomalies implies that the proverbial stage is set for an active to very active Atlantic hurricane season.

The SOI was +12.11 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -1.869 today.

On April 20 the MJO was in Phase 1 at an amplitude of 1.254 (RMM). The April 19-adjusted amplitude was 1.365 (RMM).

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 82% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal April (1991-2020 normal). April will likely finish with a mean temperature near 52.7° (1.0° below normal).

 

[donsutherland1]

FYI: 

[CIK62]

The last 8 days of April are averaging 57degs.(49/65) or (Normal).

Month to date is  52.5[+0.3].       April should end at  53.7[Normal].

Reached 71 here yesterday at 23%RH.

Today: 55-60, m. cloudy, wind e. to s.-variable, 52 by tomorrow AM.

54*(41%RH) here at 7am.     60* at 11am.      58* at Noon.      Reached 61* at 5pm.       53* at 8pm.

[bluewave]

We are on track for another top 5 coldest late April high temperature. This has been a common theme in recent years. Its the reverse of late February which has been top 5 warmest. So a continuation of the big temperature swings pattern.
 

Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Ending Date	Highest Max Temperature Apr 16 to Apr 30	Missing Count
1	2020-04-30	68	0
2	2018-04-30	70	0
-	1940-04-30	70	0
3	1988-04-30	71	0
-	1937-04-30	71	0
-	1931-04-30	71	0
4	1966-04-30	72	0
5	2022-04-30	73	8
-	1978-04-30	73	0
6	1998-04-30	74	0
-	1997-04-30	74	0
-	1950-04-30	74	0

 

Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Ending Date	Highest Max Temperature Feb 16 to Feb 28	Missing Count
1	2018-02-28	80	0
2	2017-02-28	74	0
-	1997-02-28	74	0
-	1954-02-28	74	0
3	1985-02-28	73	0
4	2011-02-28	71	0
5	2022-02-28	70	0
-	1939-02-28	70	0

[donsutherland1]

Morning thoughts…

It will be variably cloudy and pleasant. High temperatures will likely reach the lower and middle 60s in much of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include:

New York City (Central Park): 62°

Newark: 63°

Philadelphia: 68°

Tomorrow will be somewhat cooler.

Normals:

New York City: 30-Year: 64.9°; 15-Year: 65.3°

Newark: 30-Year: 65.7°; 15-Year: 66.1°

Philadelphia: 30-Year: 67.7°; 15-Year: 68.1°

A blizzard will develop in eastern Montana and western North Dakota.

[winterwx21]

68 degrees here. Turned into a beautiful afternoon.

[lee59]

After a high of 63 I am down to 58 on a south breeze off the water

[uncle W]

the last two Mays had an unseasonably cold period with record cold Temperatures...there is a possibility NYC sees upper 30's before the month ends...will it be the last 30's NYC sees until the fall?...Or will May have winters last gasp before countless 90 degree days with humidity...

[nyrangers1022]

Wtf is this line of showers moving from NW to SE.   Sun was barely out in the afternoon here

[LoboLeader1]

Cloudy here most of the afternoon, showers off to my east. Currently 57.

[uncle W]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

This looks like it will be one of those rare times that NYC records the coldest April temperature during the last week of the month. Guidance has lows in the mid 30s for NYC Thursday. They only need to beat 38° for the monthly minimum. 
 

 

very few years had its coldest April Temperature at the end of the month...back in 1966 and 1967 April had late month cold...both years had record cold in May...2020 had its coldest April temp around the 22nd but had an additional cold day near the end of the month...It snowed a little in May 2020 with a benchmark record low...

[donsutherland1]

Tomorrow will be partly sunny and pleasant. The ongoing blocking will likely lead to a more sustained cool pattern that could last into the beginning of May. The coolest period will likely occur from the middle of next week through the middle of the first week of May.

During the 1991-2020 period, the April 25-May 5 period saw temperatures average 1°-2° below normal when strong blocking coincided with Niña conditions. Afterward, approximately 50% of such cases went on to see a warmer to much warmer than normal second half of May.

Meanwhile, parts of the Northern Plains will see another blizzard dump heavy wind-driven snow tonight into tomorrow. The axis of heaviest snow will cover eastern Montana and western North Dakota.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.7°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.9°C for the week centered around April 13. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.80°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.88°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist into the start of June.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly of -1.7°C is the lowest such figure on record for a week centered around April 13. The old record was -1.4°C, which was set in 1994. Since 1982, there were five prior cases where the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.5°C or colder. 40% of those cases saw La Niña conditions the following winter; 40% saw neutral-cool ENSO conditions that approached but did not reach La Niña status. 20% of those cases saw an El Niño develop during the following winter. More immediately, the magnitude of cool anomalies implies that the proverbial stage is set for an active to very active Atlantic hurricane season.

The SOI was +18.60 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -1.889 today.

On April 21 the MJO was in Phase 1 at an amplitude of 1.166 (RMM). The April 20-adjusted amplitude was 1.256 (RMM).

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 79% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal April (1991-2020 normal). April will likely finish with a mean temperature near 52.8° (0.9° below normal).

 

 

[CIK62]

The last 7 days of April are averaging 54degs.(46/63) or -3.

Month to date is  52.7[+0.3].      April should end at  53.0[-0.7].

Little rain till May 02.

Reached 61 here yesterday.

Today: 56-59, wind e., mixed skies, 48 by tomorrow AM.

55*(68%RH) here at 7am.      59* at 9am.       58* at 10am.       56* at 1pm.       60* at 4pm.     Reached 62* at 5:30pm.        54* at 8pm.       52* at 10pm.

At 1pm it really does not look very warm anywhere.      East wind penetrating more than the coast only:

 

[bluewave]

Big backdoor gradient today with highs in the 60s around NYC and  80s to the south and west of the area. 
 

[donsutherland1]

Morning thoughts…

It will be partly to mostly sunny and pleasant. High temperatures will likely reach the lower and middle 60s in much of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include:

New York City (Central Park): 63°

Newark: 65°

Philadelphia: 62°

A cooler pattern will develop at midweek.

Normals:

New York City: 30-Year: 65.3°; 15-Year: 65.7°

Newark: 30-Year: 66.1°; 15-Year: 66.5°

Philadelphia: 30-Year: 68.1°; 15-Year: 68.5°

Through 6 AM MDT, snowfall totals from the ongoing blizzard in the Northern Plains include: Bowman, N D: 12.0”; Dickinson, ND: 8.0”; Watford City, ND: 12.5”; Wildrose, ND: 12.0”; and, Williston, ND: 8.5”. In addition, Casper, WY picked up 6.8” of snow yesterday breaking the daily record of 5.0” from 1958.

[LoboLeader1]

Reached 61 here yesterday, dropped down to 48 overnite. 54 currently under partly cloudy sky.

[Rtd208]

Pretty nice morning out so far.

Current temp 63

[TheManWithNoFace]

Can we not frost this week pretty please?

[MJO812]

North Dakota got hit hard overnight  with alot of snow.

[MJO812]

2 hours ago, bluewave said:

Big backdoor gradient today with highs in the 60s around NYC and  80s to the south and west of the area. 
 

Yep close to 80 in Syracuse and low 60s here 

[bluewave]

13 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Yep close to 80 in Syracuse and low 60s here 

One of the few times that such a strong SE Ridge gets overpowered by the -NAO block. 

 

[Rtd208]

Current temp has fallen back to 58 here. Temps will proabably hover in the low 60's today. At least the sun is getting pretty warm now so even temps in the upper 50's and lower 60's dont feel to bad at all. 

[qg_omega]

Great day