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Spring 2022 Medium/Long Range Discussion


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Shall shift this to the new seasonal thread…

 

As a few have pointed out, next week looks fairly mild overall, with this being a product of another pattern change.

 

This new pattern change is already underway, with the effects of it being felt in the sub-forum starting Sunday, then continuing through all of next week, and possibly through the following weekend as well (Perhaps beyond too?). This pattern will feature a +AO/+NAO/+EPO/neutral PNA. This will lead to an overall mild period temp wise, and still a somewhat active pattern. Snow chances will obviously be low, but not zero, especially in MN/WI/MI.

 

Beyond this there are signs of another pattern adjustment occurring around next weekend (19-20th) or into the following week.

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On 3/11/2022 at 7:42 PM, Chicago Storm said:

 

Shall shift this to the new seasonal thread…

 

As a few have pointed out, next week looks fairly mild overall, with this being a product of another pattern change.

 

This new pattern change is already underway, with the effects of it being felt in the sub-forum starting Sunday, then continuing through all of next week, and possibly through the following weekend as well (Perhaps beyond too?). This pattern will feature a +AO/+NAO/+EPO/neutral PNA. This will lead to an overall mild period temp wise, and still a somewhat active pattern. Snow chances will obviously be low, but not zero, especially in MN/WI/MI.

 

Beyond this there are signs of another pattern adjustment occurring around next weekend (19-20th) or into the following week.

 

Haven't updated in a while...

As was a possibility that was mentioned at the end of the above post, we did end up with a pattern change as we moved from mid to late March, which is the same pattern everyone is currently enjoying. This pattern has been dominated by Greenland area ridging (-NAO) and a Aleutian/Gulf of Alaska low/trough(+WPO/+EPO). This has lead to the active and cool pattern we have been experiencing across much of the region, since the week of March 21st. Interestingly enough, this pattern has featured the first real -NAO we've seen since mid-December.

Our next pattern flip is already in the process of occurring, and is one which many of you have already mentioned bringing warmer temp and severe weather opportunities for next week. This pattern will be driven by a large chunk of the Aleutian/GOA low migrating SE with a -PNA setting in, with push of Aleutian/GOA ridging (-WPO/-EPO) with developing for a time. This will lead to the active pattern next week, with the aforementioned warm temps and severe potential for a large portion of the Central/Eastern US for a several day period.

However... It is looking increasingly likely that we'll see another pattern flip late next week and into next weekend (Easter Weekend). Solid support from ENS regarding this pattern change, with it looking like a +WPO/+EPO/+PNA pattern. This would support a large low/trough in the Aleutian/GOA area once again, along with a ridge around the Western US...and means that the mean trough would set up over the Lakes/Northeast once again. A wild card will be what happens with the NAO, which at this time appears to be trending neutral or a bit negative. All in all, enjoy the brief pattern flip with warmer/severe potential next week, cause it won't be sticking around yet.

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As expected the next pattern shift is in the process of occurring now, which will favor regular storm systems/troughs moving across the region and a quick flip back to cooler than normal temps overall once again. This pattern will be in place from now, through the middle of next week.

ENS are showing another change come later next week, with the introduction of a deeper trough into the West being possible, which would then translate east. This next period starting mid to especially late next week and into next weekend (Weekend of 23rd/24th) will be the next time to watch for another warm up and more organized bout of severe weather across the Central/Eastern US.

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Y'all had to know it was coming, I just hadn't gotten time to type it up since I've been super busy and for all intents and purposes did not have time to go to NW IA tuesday but I did anyways because the setup was gas. 

Targeted Sac City area primarily due to the presence of an area of enhanced moisture convergence giving me high confidence the area near Denison would convect. This strategy was spot on. For awhile, the storms really struggled with fast motions and being whisked away north of the front and it took multiple updrafts before one finally got established on the boundary. 

Image

 

I suspect there was still quite a bit of surface stability here, as inflow temps ranged from 66-70 depending on where I was, but inflow was impressively strong at 60+mph immediately prior to the tornado, and at multiple points afterward. I suspect the very strong (and more importantly spatially large) mesocyclone and impressive hodographs helped compensate for this surface stability and enabled the Palmer tornado to develop. Due to incredible fortuitous circumstances, the stage of the tornado which were brilliantly captured by Jim Tang (and others) occurred behind trees.

Image

 

However, impressive views were still to be had of later stages of the tornado lifecycle.

Image

 

The storm filled in with rain after this and I didn't see any of the subsequent tornadoes. Although I very nearly drove into one near Gilmore City and was caught in the rear inflow jet and, cognizant about what may lay ahead shrouded in rain, I pulled off the road and waited in winds which were likely exceeding 90mph and inflicted heavy damage to neighboring trees. Up ahead, a farmstead had a destroyed outbuilding and substantial tree damage, which was deemed to be caused by an EF1 tornado. The storm could never shake mergers from the rear either, and I called the chase at 7:30pm

Image

 

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As expected the next pattern shift is in the process of occurring now, which will favor regular storm systems/troughs moving across the region and a quick flip back to cooler than normal temps overall once again. This pattern will be in place from now, through the middle of next week.
ENS are showing another change come later next week, with the introduction of a deeper trough into the West being possible, which would then translate east. This next period starting mid to especially late next week and into next weekend (Weekend of 23rd/24th) will be the next time to watch for another warm up and more organized bout of severe weather across the Central/Eastern US.

As mentioned above, our next change is on tap for this week. A deeper trough is expected to move through the Western and Central US. This is still expected to bring a push of warmer temps to the Central/Eastern US and some severe potential to the Central US, later this week on into this next weekend.

388849ccfb2ffb8494f76005e0ec3617.jpg


The bad news is this pattern adjustment is part of a much larger overall shift, one that will bring back continued troughing to the Midwest/Great Lakes/Northeast starting early next week
(Final week of April)…and will likely continue as we flip the calendar into May. This will be the second time this spring that we’ve seen a notable -NAO, after not having one almost the whole winter. For those looking for sustained deep spring-like warmth and severe chances, it still isn’t happening any time soon.

e3a065842bc471081729d56e5b584974.jpg
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Piggybacking on Joe's post above, the teleconnection forecasts are legit the stuff of nightmares for this time of year, unless you like extended winter. Both the EPS and GEFS indicate deeply negative AO, NAO, and EPO. The EPS, to make matters worse, has the PNA trending to weakly positive later in the run. The 18z GEFS was marginally better for keeping the pattern more active with a weak negative PNA. Meanwhile, the control runs, on the other hand showed opposite PNA trends to the ensemble means, so it does appear there's uncertainty in that regard.

At best, we're looking at a continuation of the below normal temps with regular bouts of precip and maybe a thread the needle severe threat or two. At worst, we'd enter into CAD in early May with little/no threat for thunderstorms, let alone severe weather. Given the consistency of the ensemble mean height anomaly forecasts with the teleconnections, main takeaway is to continue to hold off on doing much planting until Mother's Day and beyond.

Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk

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sun coming up at 5:30 AM. Grass greening  and trees blooming. Birds singing loud at 5 am. Grass will need to be cut this week. And based on upcoming pattern were lining up for gorgeous Memorial Day weekend.  

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9 hours ago, RCNYILWX said:

Piggybacking on Joe's post above, the teleconnection forecasts are legit the stuff of nightmares for this time of year, unless you like extended winter. 
 

I started off my morning by seeing overcast skies, white surfaces with a cold wind. Then a headline from TWN "Every major Canadian city is below seasonal on Tuesday, more cold in sight" and now this. So the crackpot extended GFS may not be junk? I'm excited.

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Is he suggesting a cooler than average summer?  I'll believe it when I see it.
I envision this being similar to 2018 but the flip to summer set back deeper into May because the SPV disruption happened in March this year vs February in 2018.

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44 minutes ago, RCNYILWX said:

I envision this being similar to 2018 but the flip to summer set back deeper into May because the SPV disruption happened in March this year vs February in 2018.

Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk
 

If we are going to have a delayed start to warmer temps, at least we have been consistently cool and delayed with the leaf out. Nothing like a super late season snow falling on leafed out trees. 

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35 minutes ago, SchaumburgStormer said:

If we are going to have a delayed start to warmer temps, at least we have been consistently cool and delayed with the leaf out. Nothing like a super late season snow falling on leafed out trees. 

True. One good caveat to this prolonged cool spell. 
 

The switch to summer will likely be overnight (or seem to be) this year. We’ll be saying “remember last Monday when it was snowing and 34°?” While it’s 85° under full sun and dew points in the 60’s the following Monday. One can wonder anyway. 

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5 hours ago, RCNYILWX said:

I envision this being similar to 2018 but the flip to summer set back deeper into May because the SPV disruption happened in March this year vs February in 2018.

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I remember 2018.  It seemed like everything exploded (leaf out, etc) almost overnight.

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2018 was awesome. Went from crap weather forever March and April then on April 30th it suddenly changed to the mid 70s and from then on never went back. May 18 in Indy was warmest on record. I think every days highs were 72 degrees or higher

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