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Potential large EC storm/Heavy LES March 11-13th


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1 hour ago, TugHillMatt said:

It's been dumping all morning here. The models did show western Onondaga getting a couple more inches than Northeastern Onondaga. I disregarded it as them being dumb, but maybe there was some merit to that? I think you guys up there get skunked by downsloping since you're closer to the Tug. I also have noticed you seem to record less in Synoptic events.

Not much to write home about here in Cicero.

 

Maybe more with LES tonight or clipper tomorrow?

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24 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

I actually haven't jack potted once this year in WNY. The big synoptic storm featured highest totals north of me, same with the big LES event. The other 2-3 LES/enhanced events had highest totals south of here. The last 2 events the jackpots were pretty close. I think we jack potted last night though, based on radar. 

In comparison to central NY, western NY has jack potted quite a bit this year. 

Yes, in comparison. Every synoptic storm has underperformed in Syracuse...pretty much the entire time I have lived here. This is especially true this season.

The only thing that is ever true for here is the temps will get 4 to 5 degrees warmer than being forecasted. Heat over performs, snow doesn't. Please not another summer with record days of heat and then another lackluster winter next year.

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13 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said:

Yes, in comparison. Every synoptic storm has underperformed in Syracuse...pretty much the entire time I have lived here. This is especially true this season.

The only thing that is ever true for here is the temps will get 4 to 5 degrees warmer than being forecasted. Heat over performs, snow doesn't. Please not another summer with record days of heat and then another lackluster winter next year.

Yeah I actually don't remember one bust this year in WNY. While almost everyone is below normal snowfall including myself, the storms that did happen all performed. Very rare to go an entire year without a bust. The only one that you can call a bust here was that big LES storm that hit metro Buffalo. We only got 4" from that one, but we had 2 of them over perform by quite a bit. It still performed just further north than modeled. 

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1 hour ago, tombo82685 said:

Yea models showed the butt crack formation well here in the valley 

Yeah, my fear was that the "gap" the models latched onto was actually under-done, and I was right.

Haven't been outside yet but I would estimate 2-3". About what I called for ROC a few days ago based on the trends.

Pretty disappointing that, while the overall season numbers are decent, we have an exceptionally hard time getting a noteworthy event around here. Maybe that's just how it goes in WNY? (When I lived in CT or Boston, we got half the annual snowfall as we do here, but were good for at least 1-2 big events a year.)

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10 minutes ago, Stash said:

Moderate to heavy snow all day here so far.  Albany with an impressive 5 straight hours of heavy snow, w/ gusts over 30mph the past two.  Nice to see after a crap winter there.

Yeah, nice day here for sure. Probably the best week of the season two decent snows in a few days.

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All winter I’ve been lucky. This has been a real kick in the nuts. At snow ridge now and it’s pretty icy. They maybe got 3” of wind blown stuff. There are parts of this ass crack of a valley that appears to have had a bit less than a dusting. Really disappointing. I’m getting Matt’s rants about now. It sucks. Lol 

Bufs minimal map said 5” for Lowville and even that busted big time!

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52 minutes ago, rochesterdave said:

I’m getting Matt’s rants about now. It sucks. Lol 

The last great winter I have seen was 13-14, and that was in West Michigan. The rest of the decade after that was atrocious. You guys had some decent months of winter after those years. I have had a few years head start on you in terms of pathetic winters. 8 consecutive years.

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3 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said:

The last great winter I have seen was 13-14, and that was in West Michigan. The rest of the decade after that was atrocious. You guys had some decent months of winter after those years. I have had a few years head start on you in terms of pathetic winters. 8 consecutive years.

2016-2018 were both good winters for SYR as well as 2013-2015 winters.

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3 minutes ago, Syrmax said:

That's bunko. Divide by 2 at least.

Not to mention that the 18z runs, as has been the case with most lake effect this winter, have the snow WAAAAY south of us over the Finger Lakes and Binghamton. Again. I was safe to stick with the Syracuse 6 I called for the other day. 6.5 inches here. 

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Just now, TugHillMatt said:

Not to mention that the 18z runs, as has been the case with most lake effect this winter, have the snow WAAAAY south of us over the Finger Lakes and Binghamton. Again. I was safe to stick with the Syracuse 6 I called for the other day. 6.5 inches here. 

4" here is my final answer. We are still just short of last year by about an inch and a half. Pathetic. 

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Just now, Syrmax said:

4" here is my final answer. We are still just short of last year by about an inch and a half. Pathetic. 

Check out the newest BGM call for the lake effect. Hmm, when was the last time you saw a lake effect map like that? :lmao:

 

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