March 2022

[jm1220]

2 hours ago, Volcanic Winter said:

I’ll take it. Beautiful crisp air. Makes me feel refreshed and awake.  
 

Don’t worry guys, I lose by default. It’ll be hot and humid here before you know it. These types of events are transient and rare for us anymore. 
 

What does seem to be increasing is our prevalence for tornadoes; how about that Mullica Hills EF3 last September? Never thought I’d see what appeared to be a Deep South multivortex dirty wedge in NJ 

What’s probably helping are the increasing water temps up here in the summer that are slow to cool down. We also had the tornado outbreak in the fall across Long Island. Warmer waters equal more instability. 

[bluewave]

Thursday could be another one of these out of season severe events with a few tornadoes possible for the warm spots around the region that can destabilize enough. 
 

 

[SnoSki14]

1 hour ago, forkyfork said:

thankfully it's only exotic trees that are suffering. the native trees haven't flowered yet

It's only a matter of time. A record warm 11-12 style winter and then a deep freeze late March or early April. 

This cold absolutely sucks though. Was outside last night and it felt like mid winter with the gusty winds. 

[gravitylover]

1 hour ago, forkyfork said:

thankfully it's only exotic trees that are suffering. the native trees haven't flowered yet

This fits into the thread you just started but, with the northward movement of plant life that had previously been native to further south than here there are more semi-native plants that will be affected by these late season cold shots. 

[snowman19]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

Thursday could be another one of these out of season tornado events for the warm spots around the region that can destabilize enough. 
 

 

Thursday has some scary looking soundings for parts of the area. We may be in for one hell of a severe weather event

[nycwinter]

another beautiful day in nyc...

[nycwinter]

if we do not hit 40 when was the last time central park has 2 days in a row in late march stay under 40 degrees? 

[LoboLeader1]

 

[uncle W]

1966-67 was an up and down year as far as temperatures...record warmth and record snow and cold all the way to April 1st and 2nd 1967...Record warmth both days gave way to two months of unseasonably cold weather...

2021-22 temperature highs and lows...

12/17/21...60...48.....

12/20/21...35...25

01/02/22...59...37

01/04/22...34...19

02/04/22...57...26

02/05/22...27...19

02/12/22...59...42

02/14/22...25...16

02/17/22...68...49

02/20/22...36...21

02/23/22...68...35

02/24/22...35...39

03/07/22...74...50

03/09/22...41...33

..........................................................

1966-67...

12/11/66...60...35...66 on 12/9

12/13/66...37...31

12/18/66...56...42

12/20/66...37...24

01/26/67...58...44...68 on 1/24...

01/28/67...39...29

02/02/67...58...34

02/03/67...34...20

02/15/67...60...42

02/17/67...27...23

03/03/67...64...39

03/05/67...38...31

03/11/67...72...50

03/13/67...40...33

03/14/67...63...37

03/16/67...32...21

04/03/67...76...36

04/04/67...50...32

04/10/67...70...39

04/11/67...48...32

 

[LoboLeader1]

34F here currently.

[gravitylover]

We're talking about Thursday afternoon when things potentially get ugly, right? My kid is flying into LGA at 11am, it should be ok right?

[Brian5671]

2 hours ago, gravitylover said:

We're talking about Thursday afternoon when things potentially get ugly, right? My kid is flying into LGA at 11am, it should be ok right?

No issues then.  Models actually look fairly meh for NYC and points east with the south flow off the cold ocean...maybe some showers overnight Thurs-Fri

[donsutherland1]

After another cool start, tomorrow will turn noticeably milder with readings reaching the middle and perhaps upper 40s despite the presence of a lot of clouds. Thursday will be warm with highs well into the 60s despite some rain, showers, and perhaps thunderstorms.

The mean last dates for readings below 30° are:

New York City: March 22 (1981-10: March 24)
Philadelphia: March 22 (1981-10: March 25)

Last year, both cities saw the temperature fall into the 20s for their last time on April 2.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.5°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.9°C for the week centered around March 23. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.92°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.88°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist into at least mid-April.

The SOI was +3.49 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -1.095 today.

On March 27 the MJO was in Phase 8 at an amplitude of 0.311 (RMM). The March 26-adjusted amplitude was 0.108 (RMM).

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 100% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal March (1991-2020 normal). March will likely finish with a mean temperature near 45.2° (2.4° above normal).

 

[LibertyBell]

14 hours ago, jm1220 said:

Not sure what the reason is for the constant blocking patterns late in March and into spring the last several seasons but hopefully we can get it to end and have the blocking a month earlier when it can be useful for snow. Amazing how constant these patterns are every year along with the seeming perma-Nina. 

This was also the case in the 50s when March was our snowiest month.

[LibertyBell]

16 hours ago, bluewave said:

Yesterday was the 2nd latest date at LGA that the high didn’t get over freezing.

 

RECORD EVENT REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK, NY
730 PM EDT TUE MAR 28 2022

...RECORD LOW MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE SET AT LAGUARDIA NY...

A RECORD LOW MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE OF 32 WAS SET AT LAGUARDIA NY 
TODAY. THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF 36 SET IN 1966.

 

3/25	32 in 1940	34 in 1974	34 in 1956
3/26	34 in 1947	35 in 2014	36 in 1971
3/27	36 in 1955	39 in 1982	39 in 1975+
3/28	32 in 2022	36 in 1966	38 in 1959
3/29	34 in 1974	35 in 1984	40 in 1965+
3/30	34 in 1970	39 in 1941	40 in 1990+
3/31	36 in 1970	36 in 1969	37 in 1964
4/1	42 in 2001	43 in 1964	44 in 2011+
4/2	39 in 2021	40 in 1993	43 in 2018
4/3	39 in 1978	43 in 1962	43 in 1943
4/4	36 in 1975	41 in 1972	42 in 1944
4/5	38 in 1995	39 in 1944	41 in 1975
4/6	40 in 1982	41 in 1975	42 in 1971+
4/7	30 in 1982	37 in 2003	39 in 1967
4/8	38 in 2003	39 in 1972	39 in 1956

Can you extend this out further, Chris.... what were the highs when we had that snowstorm in April 1996?  What was the latest we've ever had highs in the 30s around the region?

[LibertyBell]

On 3/28/2022 at 5:55 PM, donsutherland1 said:

An Arctic air mass seemingly turned the calendar back several pages to January. Under bright sunshine coupled with some clouds and a few passing flurries, the mercury rose into the lower and middle 30s across the region.

At New York City, the high was 33°, which was the coldest high temperature this late in the season since April 7, 1982 when the high was 30°. At Newark, the high of 35° was the coldest high since April 7, 1982 when the high was 30°. At Philadelphia, the high of 36° was the coldest high since April 7, 1982 when the temperature also topped out at 36°.

Record low maximum temperatures were set or tied at locations including:

Allentown: 31° (old record: 37°, 1959, 1966, and 1996)
Binghamton: 18° (old record: 23°, 1966)
Boston: 33° (tied record set in 1893)
Bridgeport: 32° (old record: 35°, 1959 and 1966)
Hartford: 31° (old record: 34°, 1923, 1926, 1937, 1959, and 1966)
Islip: 33° (old record: 35°, 1966)
Mount Pocono, PA: 21° (old record: 24°, 1937)
New York City-JFK: 34° (old record: 37°, 1959)
New York City-LGA: 32° (old record: 36°, 1966)
New York City-NYC: 33° (old record: 34°, 1893)
Newark: 35° (tied record set in 1937)
Poughkeepsie: 31° (old record: 35°, 1939 and 1959)
Providence: 34° (tied record set in 1926)
Scranton: 27° (old record: 28°, 1937)
Worcester: 27° (old record: 28°, 1966)

At Binghamton, the 18° high was the lowest maximum temperature on record this late in the season. The old record was 21°, which was set on April 4, 1975 and tied on April 7, 1982. The previous latest high temperature below 20° occurred on March 22, 1959 when the high was 19°. The previous latest 18° high temperature occurred on March 21, 1988 when the temperature reached 18°.

Tomorrow will again start with low temperatures in the lower and middle 20s in New York City and Philadelphia with teens in some areas outside the cities. The afternoon will turn milder as the thermometer pushes into the 40s.

The mean last dates for readings below 30° are:

New York City: March 22 (1981-10: March 24)
Philadelphia: March 22 (1981-10: March 25)

Last year, both cities saw the temperature fall into the 20s for their last time on April 2.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.5°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.9°C for the week centered around March 23. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.92°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.88°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist into at least mid-April.

The SOI was +6.70 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.912 today.

On March 26 the MJO was in Phase 2 at an amplitude of 0.111 (RMM). The March 25-adjusted amplitude was 0.635 (RMM).

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 100% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal March (1991-2020 normal). March will likely finish with a mean temperature near 45.2° (2.4° above normal).

 

Don I see how historic April 1982 is here with multiple mentions.  Do you have the low temperature at Mt Pocono yesterday, since I saw you mentioned the high?  And how does this compared to what they had in April 1982 (both high and low)?  Also, I remember reading somewhere that the snowstorm that occurred that day was one of their largest on record?  Was it around 2 feet of snow there?

[LoboLeader1]

26F as of 5AM. Reached 36 for a high yesterday. Temps looking to rebound today with high's in the upper 40's.

[donsutherland1]

Morning thoughts…

Today was the 4th consecutive day that the temperature fell below 30° in New York City after March 26th and just the 7th time on record. 4 of those cases occurred prior to 1900 and the most recent case was April 5-8, 1982. After a very cold start, it will be partly sunny and milder. High temperatures will likely reach the middle and upper 40s in much of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include:

New York City (Central Park): 47°

Newark: 49°

Philadelphia: 52°

The warmup will continue through tomorrow.

Normals:

New York City: 30-Year: 54.9°; 15-Year: 55.5°

Newark: 30-Year: 55.8°; 15-Year: 56.6°

Philadelphia: 30-Year: 58.0°; 15-Year: 58.7°

[donsutherland1]

6 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

Don I see how historic April 1982 is here with multiple mentions.  Do you have the low temperature at Mt Pocono yesterday, since I saw you mentioned the high?  And how does this compared to what they had in April 1982 (both high and low)?  Also, I remember reading somewhere that the snowstorm that occurred that day was one of their largest on record?  Was it around 2 feet of snow there?

On March 27th, the range was 21-12. On April 7, 1982, the range was 22-8.

[CIK62]

The last 2 days are averaging  47degs.(36/57) or near Normal.

Month to date is  45.2[+2.7].      March should end at  45.3[+2.5].

Reached 39 here yesterday.

Today: 47-50, wind w. to s., clouds late, no more <32, 45 tomorrow AM.

31*(42%RH) here at 7am.      41* at 11am.        46* at 3pm.---variable in low 40's----42* at 8pm.

[bluewave]

First time that LGA had two record highs during the first week of a March followed by record low tie during the last week.
 

3/1	71 in 2017	68 in 1972	62 in 2004+
3/2	67 in 2004	66 in 2017	66 in 1972
3/3	65 in 1967	62 in 1961	60 in 2002
3/4	69 in 1946	65 in 1974	62 in 2008
3/5	72 in 1976	69 in 1964	68 in 1961
3/6	68 in 2022	64 in 1976	62 in 2004
3/7	74 in 2022	69 in 2009	69 in 1987

 

3/25	18 in 1940	19 in 1956	21 in 1960
3/26	20 in 1960	21 in 1947	25 in 2014+
3/27	23 in 2014	24 in 1975	25 in 2001+
3/28	23 in 1982	24 in 2022	24 in 1975
3/29	25 in 2022	25 in 1959	26 in 1943
3/30	23 in 1970	28 in 2008	28 in 1941
3/31	24 in 1964	28 in 1969	28 in 1950

[Snowlover11]

Hopefully we are done with the 20’s after tonight.  It’s been a brutal 72 hours.  if it isn’t going to snow these sub freezing temps can kindly go. 

[bluewave]

8 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

Can you extend this out further, Chris.... what were the highs when we had that snowstorm in April 1996?  What was the latest we've ever had highs in the 30s around the region?

April 1982 was the latest 21° low and 30° low max on record for NYC. It was a 100 year event for the colder climate of that time. So in our warmer climate, we haven’t seen anything close to that type of April blizzard or cold. The latest highs in the 30s was 4-29-1874.

Frost/Freeze Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Each section contains date and year of occurrence, value on that date.
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Year	Last	Value	First	Value	Season Length
1982	04-07 (1982)	21	12-09 (1982)	19	245
1881	04-05 (1881)	21	12-11 (1881)	20	249
1874	04-05 (1874)	20	12-14 (1874)	16	252
1923	04-01 (1923)	12	01-02 (1924)	20	275
1915	03-30 (1915)	21	12-11 (1915)	21	255

 

First/Last Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Each section contains date and year of occurrence, value on that date.
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Year	Last	Value	First	Value	Difference
1982	04-07 (1982)	30	12-13 (1982)	24	249
1881	04-05 (1881)	30	11-25 (1881)	30	233
1887	03-29 (1887)	29	12-01 (1887)	23	246
1894	03-27 (1894)	30	12-28 (1894)	17	275
1878	03-25 (1878)	30	12-24 (1878)	22	273

 

First/Last Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Each section contains date and year of occurrence, value on that date.
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Year	Last	Value	First	Value	Difference
1874	04-29 (1874)	38	11-13 (1874)	36	197
1904	04-20 (1904)	37	11-17 (1904)	38	210
1887	04-18 (1887)	38	11-11 (1887)	39	206
1875	04-18 (1875)	32	11-04 (1875)	39	199
1872	04-16 (1872)	39	11-21 (1872)	37	218
1940	04-13 (1940)	35	11-26 (1940)	35	226
1918	04-12 (1918)	35	11-26 (1918)	39	227
1894	04-11 (1894)	39	11-09 (1894)	37	211
1882	04-11 (1882)	38	11-18 (1882)	34	220
1942	04-10 (1942)	37	11-14 (1942)	32	217
1909	04-10 (1909)	39	11-25 (1909)	39	228
1900	04-10 (1900)	39	11-16 (1900)	39	219
2003	04-09 (2003)	39	12-02 (2003)	36	236
1982	04-09 (1982)	39	12-10 (1982)	35	244

[snowman19]

17 minutes ago, bluewave said:

April 1982 was the latest 21° low and 30° low max on record for NYC. It was a 100 year event for the colder climate of that time. So in our warmer climate, we haven’t seen anything close to that type of April blizzard or cold.

Frost/Freeze Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Each section contains date and year of occurrence, value on that date.
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Year	Last	Value	First	Value	Season Length
1982	04-07 (1982)	21	12-09 (1982)	19	245
1881	04-05 (1881)	21	12-11 (1881)	20	249
1874	04-05 (1874)	20	12-14 (1874)	16	252
1923	04-01 (1923)	12	01-02 (1924)	20	275
1915	03-30 (1915)	21	12-11 (1915)	21	255

 

First/Last Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Each section contains date and year of occurrence, value on that date.
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Year	Last	Value	First	Value	Difference
1982	04-07 (1982)	30	12-13 (1982)	24	249
1881	04-05 (1881)	30	11-25 (1881)	30	233
1887	03-29 (1887)	29	12-01 (1887)	23	246
1894	03-27 (1894)	30	12-28 (1894)	17	275
1878	03-25 (1878)	30	12-24 (1878)	22	273

Yep, even for the 40’s-80’s colder time frame, April, 1982 was very highly anomalous, a true fluke month

[bluewave]

27 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Yep, even for the 40’s-80’s colder time frame, April, 1982 was very highly anomalous, a true fluke month

Yeah, there was a rapid cooling of the North Atlantic during the 1970s. They are still not sure what caused it. So we had all those record cold winters in the late 1970s and early 1980s. 1982 and 1985 were the last 2 times that Newark almost made it down to -10°.

An Anatomy of the Cooling of the North Atlantic Ocean in the 1960s and 1970s

https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/clim/27/21/jcli-d-14-00301.1.xml

 

Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Jan through Dec
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Year	Lowest Min Temperature	Missing Count
1	1934	-14	0
2	1985	-8	0
-	1933	-8	0
3	1982	-7	0
-	1943	-7	0
4	1936	-4	0
-	1935	-4	0
5	1994	-2	0
-	1977	-2	0
-	1963	-2	0
-	1961	-2	0
6	1984	-1	0
-	1981	-1	0
-	1980	-1	0
-	1979	-1	0
-	1976	-1	0
-	1942	-1	0
7	2016	0	0

[Cfa]

It’s only 43 but it feels 55 in the late March sun.

[SnoSki14]

Looks like slight risk was expanded somewhat for tomorrow. 

Instability will be important

[uncle W]

Records from the 1870’s come from a time when most of the area was trees and farms…we should not throw them out but just start at 1960 or 1950… 

[bluewave]

40 minutes ago, uncle W said:

Records from the 1870’s come from a time when most of the area was trees and farms…we should not throw them out but just start at 1960 or 1950… 

But 1917 to 1936 had much colder intervals than the period from the 1870s to the early 1910s. 
 

Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY - Jan through Dec
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Year	Lowest Min Temperature	Missing Count
1	1934	-15	0
2	1917	-13	0
3	1943	-8	0
4	1933	-6	0
-	1918	-6	0
-	1899	-6	0
-	1882	-6	0
-	1880	-6	1
5	1914	-5	0
-	1896	-5	0

 

Minimum 30-Day Mean Avg Temperature 
for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Value	Ending Date	Missing Days
Period of record: 1869-01-01 to 2022-03-29
1	19.0	1918-01-24	0
2	19.3	1918-01-25	0
3	19.3	1918-01-27	0
4	19.5	1918-01-23	0
5	19.6	1918-01-26	0
6	19.6	1934-02-28	0
7	19.8	1934-02-27	0
8	19.8	1918-01-28	0
9	20.1	1918-01-22	0
10	20.1	1934-03-01	0
11	20.3	1918-01-21	0
14	20.3	1893-01-22	0
15	20.3	1918-01-07	0
17	20.4	1918-01-08	0
18	20.4	1936-02-21	0
19	20.5	1893-01-20	0
20	20.7	1918-01-04	0
-	20.3	1918-01-06	0
-	20.3	1918-01-05	0
-	20.3	1893-01-21	0

 

[uncle W]

12 minutes ago, bluewave said:

But 1917 to 1936 had much colder intervals than the period from the 1870s to the early 1910s. 
 

Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY - Jan through Dec
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Year	Lowest Min Temperature	Missing Count
1	1934	-15	0
2	1917	-13	0
3	1943	-8	0
4	1933	-6	0
-	1918	-6	0
-	1899	-6	0
-	1882	-6	0
-	1880	-6	1
5	1914	-5	0
-	1896	-5	0

 

Minimum 30-Day Mean Avg Temperature 
for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Value	Ending Date	Missing Days
Period of record: 1869-01-01 to 2022-03-29
1	19.0	1918-01-24	0
2	19.3	1918-01-25	0
3	19.3	1918-01-27	0
4	19.5	1918-01-23	0
5	19.6	1918-01-26	0
6	19.6	1934-02-28	0
7	19.8	1934-02-27	0
8	19.8	1918-01-28	0
9	20.1	1918-01-22	0
10	20.1	1934-03-01	0
11	20.3	1918-01-21	0
14	20.3	1893-01-22	0
15	20.3	1918-01-07	0
17	20.4	1918-01-08	0
18	20.4	1936-02-21	0
19	20.5	1893-01-20	0
20	20.7	1918-01-04	0
-	20.3	1918-01-06	0
-	20.3	1918-01-05	0
-	20.3	1893-01-21	0

 

most of the outer boroughs were built up in the early 1920's...We can start with 1930...we would still have the hottest temp on record from 1936 and the coldest temp from 1934...