EastonSN+ Posted March 8, 2022 Share Posted March 8, 2022 5 minutes ago, Doorman said: Could be a decent hit for the western 1/3 rd of our forum. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted March 8, 2022 Share Posted March 8, 2022 1 minute ago, EastonSN+ said: Could be a decent hit for the western 1/3 rd of our forum. happy tracking 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted March 8, 2022 Share Posted March 8, 2022 16 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: That would be the perfect scenario. 2 snow events to get us to average then let the warmth out! One day we will repeat the month of March 2012. Difference of course was 2012 Canada was torched allowing for a true month long torch. This year Canada/west has a deep cold supply creating temp volatility. While March 2012 was our warmest March on record, the monthly highest temperature wasn’t that impressive. Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Month of MarClick column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Highest Max Temperature Missing Count 1 1945 89 0 2 1998 86 0 - 1990 86 0 3 2021 84 0 - 1985 84 0 - 1977 84 0 4 1989 83 0 - 1986 83 0 5 2016 82 0 - 1938 82 0 6 2020 80 0 - 2011 80 0 - 2007 80 0 - 1962 80 0 - 1946 80 0 7 2012 79 0 - 1968 79 0 - 1963 79 0 Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Month of MarClick column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Mean Avg Temperature Missing Count 1 2012 51.3 0 2 1945 50.6 0 3 2016 49.1 0 4 1946 48.8 0 5 1973 48.6 0 6 2010 48.2 0 7 2020 47.9 0 8 2000 47.8 0 9 1977 46.7 0 10 1979 46.2 0 11 2021 45.6 0 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 8, 2022 Share Posted March 8, 2022 3 hours ago, LibertyBell said: So more snow with the 10:1 than Kuchera? Thats a switch It takes into account the warm surface temps. This would be a gloppy 32-33 degree snow which would be significantly less than 10-1 ratio. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
matt8204 Posted March 8, 2022 Share Posted March 8, 2022 1 hour ago, bluewave said: While March 2012 was our warmest March on record, the monthly highest temperature wasn’t that impressive. Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Month of MarClick column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Highest Max Temperature Missing Count 1 1945 89 0 2 1998 86 0 - 1990 86 0 3 2021 84 0 - 1985 84 0 - 1977 84 0 4 1989 83 0 - 1986 83 0 5 2016 82 0 - 1938 82 0 6 2020 80 0 - 2011 80 0 - 2007 80 0 - 1962 80 0 - 1946 80 0 7 2012 79 0 - 1968 79 0 - 1963 79 0 Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Month of MarClick column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Mean Avg Temperature Missing Count 1 2012 51.3 0 2 1945 50.6 0 3 2016 49.1 0 4 1946 48.8 0 5 1973 48.6 0 6 2010 48.2 0 7 2020 47.9 0 8 2000 47.8 0 9 1977 46.7 0 10 1979 46.2 0 11 2021 45.6 0 I remember going to a Devils game on March 23 that year (2012) and thinking how crazy it was to be watching hockey while it was so warm out. Pretty sure I went to the game in shorts. I could swear it hit 80 that day but I guess I'm wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted March 8, 2022 Share Posted March 8, 2022 34 minutes ago, matt8204 said: I remember going to a Devils game on March 23 that year (2012) and thinking how crazy it was to be watching hockey while it was so warm out. Pretty sure I went to the game in shorts. I could swear it hit 80 that day but I guess I'm wrong. Yeah, March 2012 was all about consistently above normal temperatures with Newark going +9.2. But there were only 2 daily record high temperatures and the monthly high only reaching 79°. The warm up in late March last year was more impressive with Newark reaching 84°. The most extreme warmth in March 2012 went to our west. International falls was +14.6 for there warmest March. I believe it was the only time that a U.S. station recorded 10 record daily high temperatures in a row. But several of the days were already surpassed in recent years. International Falls Area, MNPeriod of record: 1897-01-15 through 2022-03-07 3/13 59 in 2016 55 in 2012 54 in 1995+ 3/14 60 in 2016 57 in 2012 54 in 2010+ 3/15 65 in 2015 57 in 2012 57 in 2009+ 3/16 71 in 2012 58 in 2009 57 in 2003 3/17 77 in 2012 55 in 1968 54 in 2010 3/18 79 in 2012 66 in 1918 57 in 2010 3/19 78 in 2012 60 in 1918 57 in 2021 3/20 64 in 2021 61 in 2012 61 in 1987 3/21 69 in 2012 57 in 2021 56 in 1987 3/22 72 in 2012 62 in 2000 56 in 2003 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted March 8, 2022 Share Posted March 8, 2022 The Saturday storm bears watching for the NW parts of the subforum and since I have Sat mostly off I might storm chase if it comes to fruition. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted March 8, 2022 Share Posted March 8, 2022 56 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said: The Saturday storm bears watching for the NW parts of the subforum and since I have Sat mostly off I might storm chase if it comes to fruition. That has flash freeze potential 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover11 Posted March 8, 2022 Share Posted March 8, 2022 Saturday has my eyes, huge storm signal. Potential for a snow maker far NW and a Gusty rain storm for the coast perhaps switching over to snow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
milleand Posted March 8, 2022 Share Posted March 8, 2022 15 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: That has flash freeze potential What is the timing for Saturday? I have a 6:30am flight out of Newark and I am trying to keep an eye on this system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WarrenCtyWx Posted March 8, 2022 Share Posted March 8, 2022 1 hour ago, bluewave said: Yeah, March 2012 was all about consistently above normal temperatures with Newark going +9.2. But there were only 2 daily record high temperatures and the monthly high only reaching 79°. The warm up in late March last year was more impressive with Newark reaching 84°. The most extreme warmth in March 2012 went to our west. International falls was +14.6 for there warmest March. I believe it was the only time that a U.S. station recorded 10 record daily high temperatures in a row. But several of the days were already surpassed in recent years. International Falls Area, MNPeriod of record: 1897-01-15 through 2022-03-07 3/13 59 in 2016 55 in 2012 54 in 1995+ 3/14 60 in 2016 57 in 2012 54 in 2010+ 3/15 65 in 2015 57 in 2012 57 in 2009+ 3/16 71 in 2012 58 in 2009 57 in 2003 3/17 77 in 2012 55 in 1968 54 in 2010 3/18 79 in 2012 66 in 1918 57 in 2010 3/19 78 in 2012 60 in 1918 57 in 2021 3/20 64 in 2021 61 in 2012 61 in 1987 3/21 69 in 2012 57 in 2021 56 in 1987 3/22 72 in 2012 62 in 2000 56 in 2003 Allentown also hit 80 that month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted March 8, 2022 Share Posted March 8, 2022 1 hour ago, SnoSki14 said: That has flash freeze potential How often does that happen? These post frontal storms often don't work out. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxSnowWx37 Posted March 8, 2022 Share Posted March 8, 2022 1 hour ago, Snowlover11 said: Saturday has my eyes, huge storm signal. Potential for a snow maker far NW and a Gusty rain storm for the coast perhaps switching over to snow. Yeah most models have us from mod to heavy rain to mod to heavy snow for a while. Depends on how fast the cold can rush in behind. We need the low to keep creeping east,which is seems to be doing. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HeadInTheClouds Posted March 8, 2022 Share Posted March 8, 2022 1 minute ago, BxSnowWx37 said: Yeah most models have us from mod to heavy rain to mod to heavy snow for a while. Depends on how fast the cold can rush in behind. We need the low to keep creeping east,which is seems to be doing. Yup. I wouldn't sleep on this one, especially N and W. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted March 8, 2022 Share Posted March 8, 2022 12z Euro is quite a weeny run for NW of the city combining tomorrow and Saturday 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 8, 2022 Share Posted March 8, 2022 3 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said: 12z Euro is quite a weeny run for NW of the city combining tomorrow and Saturday Weekend storm trending flatter and east 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HeadInTheClouds Posted March 8, 2022 Share Posted March 8, 2022 Like I said, can't sleep on this, especially N and W. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted March 8, 2022 Share Posted March 8, 2022 2 minutes ago, HeadInTheClouds said: Like I said, can't sleep on this, especially N and W. 12Z Euro actually has track almost over the BM but it starts out warm due to the airmass. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 8, 2022 Share Posted March 8, 2022 2 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said: 12Z Euro actually has track almost over the BM but it starts out warm due to the airmass. Yep east of 0z 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted March 8, 2022 Share Posted March 8, 2022 4 minutes ago, HeadInTheClouds said: Like I said, can't sleep on this, especially N and W. This is too close. If only we had a decent air mass in place. Can't rule out some snow/accumulation. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 8, 2022 Share Posted March 8, 2022 2 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: This is too close. If only we had a decent air mass in place. Can't rule out some snow/accumulation. Maybe more than some for places 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted March 8, 2022 Share Posted March 8, 2022 2 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Maybe more than some for places If it tracks near the BM it might be low warning level snow for the NW parts of the subforum, this thing is amped. However I would be cautious as Euro is furthest east model right now with this. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 8, 2022 Share Posted March 8, 2022 2 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said: If it trends to the BM it might be low warning level snow for the NW parts of the subforum, this thing is amped. However I would be cautious as Euro is furthest east model right now with this. The other models aren't that far off. Remember when this was a cutter ? 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HeadInTheClouds Posted March 8, 2022 Share Posted March 8, 2022 1 minute ago, EastonSN+ said: This is too close. If only we had a decent air mass in place. Can't rule out some snow/accumulation. It is but the more N and W you are the better your chances. It all depends on where the low placement is because it's intensifying rapidly and drawing in cold air. It may be too late for most or all of us but that is unknown at this point. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted March 8, 2022 Share Posted March 8, 2022 Nice. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted March 8, 2022 Share Posted March 8, 2022 Sooooo close. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted March 8, 2022 Share Posted March 8, 2022 The 12z EPS mean is stronger and further west than the OP. With such an amped system and no blocking, this could come further west in future runs. The strong winds may be the big story for the coast with such a deep low pressure. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted March 8, 2022 Share Posted March 8, 2022 1 minute ago, bluewave said: The 12z EPS mean is stronger and further west than the OP. With such an amped system and no blocking, this could come further west in future runs. The strong winds may be the big story for the coast with such a deep low pressure. Yep. The op Euro is out to lunch with that one the EPS doesn’t even agree with its own operational, huge red flag right there. That solution makes zero sense, the shortwave amps, no 50/50 low, no -NAO block, +AO, there is nothing to stop it from cutting/inland running. The CMC and as it pains me to say it, the GFS are much closer to reality. The UKMET and ICON are also nothing at all like the op Euro 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 8, 2022 Share Posted March 8, 2022 20 minutes ago, bluewave said: The 12z EPS mean is stronger and further west than the OP. With such an amped system and no blocking, this could come further west in future runs. The strong winds may be the big story for the coast with such a deep low pressure. This is still nice for our area. It all depends on where the phase occurs. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 8, 2022 Share Posted March 8, 2022 16 minutes ago, snowman19 said: Yep. The op Euro is out to lunch with that one the EPS doesn’t even agree with its own operational, huge red flag right there. That solution makes zero sense, the shortwave amps, no 50/50 low, no -NAO block, +AO, there is nothing to stop it from cutting/inland running. The CMC and as it pains me to say it, the GFS are much closer to reality. The UKMET and ICON are also nothing at all like the op Euro Dude nothing is out to lunch 4 days out 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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