Feb 13-14 snowstorm/nor’easter potential

[weathafella]

3 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

A solid 4-6” for almost everybody on that depiction…I’d take that at this point. But maybe we can amp this up even a bit more…

And it keeps going but it’s our worst “model”

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

22 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Northern stream was way west but the base of the front runner is pretty rounded. I do think that would eventually go boom though…too far west not to. 

Can we turn this into a predominantly n stream player with how potent some guidance has it and just weaken the s stream to be a non factor? I’d almost rather take my chances with that then rely on phase jobs which lead to convection chasing and double saggy melons.

[WinterWolf]

10 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Agree 100.

Let’s hope this thing is like Forest Gump as he was about to, and then busts out of his leg braces…and runs like the wind down that dirt road. it’s building and getting ready to bust out and explode.  
 

Run Forest…Runnnn. 

[eduggs]

The mini trend is for a flatter southern wave and a stronger, further south, potentially cut off northern wave. I don't think that's going to cut it because the strongest baroclinity ends up offshore. It's difficult to recover from that no matter how strong the northern wave is.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

3 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Let’s hope this thing is like Forest Gump as he was about to, and then busts out of his leg braces…and run like the wind down that dirt road. it’s building and getting ready to bust out and explode.  
 

Run Forest…Runnnn. 

Lol. Get this to a big solution and I’ll gump run to George’s for a high five in person.

[WinterWolf]

5 minutes ago, weathafella said:

And it keeps going but it’s our worst “model”

Ya I know…was just saying what it showed. But you’re right. 

[eduggs]

Both the NAM and ICON were slight steps back - especially the NAM. Hopefully it's not indicative of how the rest of 0z will go.

[WinterWolf]

1 minute ago, eduggs said:

Both the NAM and ICON were slight steps back - especially the NAM. Hopefully it's not indicative of how the rest of 0z will go.

Icon was actually better for everyone in SNE from its last run..spreads a big swath of snow across the whole area. Not that it really matters, cuz it’s the icon and all.  
 

Aren’t you in the wrong sub forum though? 

[HIPPYVALLEY]

3 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Icon was actually better for everyone in SNE from its last run..spreads a big swath of snow across the whole area. Not that it really matters, cuz it’s the icon and all.  
 

Aren’t you in the wrong sub forum though? 

It's all good, weather intelligent posts are always welcome here.

 

[eduggs]

12 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Icon was actually better for everyone in SNE from its last run..spreads a big swath of snow across the whole area. Not that it really matters, cuz it’s the icon and all.  
 

Aren’t you in the wrong sub forum though? 

The 0z ICON is worse for everyone regardless of what the fantasy snow maps showed. Just cycle H5. And trends in the ICON matter. More times than not they match the other models, even if the overall depiction is slightly less accurate on average.

[Ginx snewx]

Little late to the ballgame but 18Z EPS winter precip maps have some pretty beefy snowfall totals  for what that lp map shows

 

[George001]

32 minutes ago, eduggs said:

Both the NAM and ICON were slight steps back - especially the NAM. Hopefully it's not indicative of how the rest of 0z will go.

I disagree no steps back from the NAM. ICON yes, but the ICON is terrible.

[dryslot]

Well, The 0z GFS should be better then the 18z run if i haven't totally lost my mind.

[ORH_wxman]

GFS coming in better than 18z

[brooklynwx99]

GFS looks better… way different with the NS, should be in a good way

S vort is definitely more consolidated 

[George001]

1 minute ago, brooklynwx99 said:

GFS looks better… way different with the NS, should be in a good way

S vort is definitely more consolidated 

Looks a bit like the 12z Canadian with that northern energy closed off

[HIPPYVALLEY]

GFS digging a little better.

[MJO812]

[ORH_wxman]

Nice move but still need another going forward. It would be nice if we could sharpen up that southern stream just a tad more. The northern stream is in pretty good position this run. 

[HIPPYVALLEY]

1 minute ago, MJO812 said:

 

We're getting there.   Tomorrow will be model consensus.

[eduggs]

The GFS is following the multi-model trend with the stronger northern wave north of MN, but not losing sharpness at the base of the trof. That's what we need.

[40/70 Benchmark]

It's like Groundhog day.....every run looks better until it doesn't  lol

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

It's like Groundhog day.....every run looks better until it doesn't  lol

Lol I was just thinking that. One step forward here but not enough somewhere else to complete magic trick. Back in the hat you go little rabbit.

[George001]

I’m interested to see what the Canadian says. If we get another bump west with the northern energy on that we will start seeing the strength of the low increase a lot, none of that 1000s and 990s mb nonsense.

[MJO812]

4 minutes ago, George001 said:

I’m interested to see what the Canadian says. If we get another bump west with the northern energy on that we will start seeing the strength of the low increase a lot, none of that 1000s and 990s mb nonsense.

It's way further east 

[Sey-Mour Snow]

Rgem looks solid as well

[MJO812]

3 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

Rgem looks solid as well

 

[George001]

Just now, MJO812 said:

 

God ****ing damn it we can’t afford to have steps back like that at this stage. Navy is out to sea too. We need to get the Navy on board asap.

[MJO812]

2 minutes ago, George001 said:

God ****ing damn it we can’t afford to have steps back like that at this stage. Navy is out to sea too. We need to get the Navy on board asap.

Who gives a shit about the navy 

[dryslot]

Call in the seals for support.