LibertyBell Posted February 3, 2022 Share Posted February 3, 2022 4 hours ago, jm1220 said: Not too worried about the city and near the coast anymore. The boundary has slowly been delayed in getting here on the models today and GFS just delayed it again and removes most precip after it. Could there be a glaze-sure, but the real ice threat will be north of the city. Lots of rain and unfortunately snow melt before. Most of us other than the really crushed spots will be down to piles by the time the cold gets here again. Next 24 hours with high humidity will eat it right up. Actually most of the snow is gone here already, the rain will only clean up the dirty snow piles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 3, 2022 Share Posted February 3, 2022 Raining here Bye snow pack 43 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lee59 Posted February 3, 2022 Share Posted February 3, 2022 I would say on average about 6 inches of snowpack still here. Of course it varies from a few inches to maybe 8-10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted February 3, 2022 Share Posted February 3, 2022 Grass showing through in most of my yard now, probably be down to mud by this afternoon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted February 3, 2022 Author Share Posted February 3, 2022 Since when did this turn into the snowpack observation thread? Yes the HRRR doesn't have much ice South of 287 in Rockland but the GFS, 06z 3K NAM and some of the other mesoscale models are still on board. 12z will be telling. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted February 3, 2022 Share Posted February 3, 2022 Sorry but as often as not the discussion threads morph into obs as the event unfolds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crossbowftw3 Posted February 3, 2022 Share Posted February 3, 2022 9 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: Since when did this turn into the snowpack observation thread? Yes the HRRR doesn't have much ice South of 287 in Rockland but the GFS, 06z 3K NAM and some of the other mesoscale models are still on board. 12z will be telling. 12z HRRR printing out 1.3” of liquid in ZR for elevations of Ulster and Dutchess Counties, which would work to being dangerously close to the .5” marker for an ISW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted February 3, 2022 Share Posted February 3, 2022 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
romba Posted February 3, 2022 Share Posted February 3, 2022 NAM a bit more N and W with the frozen, climo wins yet again 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted February 3, 2022 Author Share Posted February 3, 2022 The 12z NAM looks icier than 06z. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted February 3, 2022 Author Share Posted February 3, 2022 4 minutes ago, romba said: NAM a bit more N and W with the frozen, climo wins yet again It scaled back the Southeastern extent but had more icing for places like Rockland, Westchester and Bergen Counties. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted February 3, 2022 Author Share Posted February 3, 2022 12z 3K NAM. Really surprised they only went with an advisory for Orange and Rockland and Sussex. This looks pretty bad. Western Passaic too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 3, 2022 Share Posted February 3, 2022 7 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: 12z 3K NAM. Really surprised they only went with an advisory for Orange and Rockland and Sussex. This looks pretty bad. Western Passaic too. Models are getting warmer. I think that's why. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the_other_guy Posted February 3, 2022 Share Posted February 3, 2022 If you approach each potential ice storm in NYC with the bias and knowledge that due to geography, topography, and urbanization, the coastal plain is unlikely to see a major icing event, you will be at a good starting point. Shoutout to Snowman19 who accurately called this NYC event to many weenies 2 1 1 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted February 3, 2022 Share Posted February 3, 2022 Nowcasting and watching the temps overnight and especially as we head towards morning in the NYC metro will be important to see just how quickly the cold is pushing south. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted February 3, 2022 Author Share Posted February 3, 2022 4 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Models are getting warmer. I think that's why. The threat hasn't really changed for the Hudson Valley and interior NNJ. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted February 3, 2022 Author Share Posted February 3, 2022 Current run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted February 3, 2022 Author Share Posted February 3, 2022 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted February 3, 2022 Share Posted February 3, 2022 7 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: That does not look like something to ignore even in the immediate metro, though not sure if the impact is as long based on what I have read; sounds like some glazing toward the end of the event? Really thought it was something we didn't have to be worried about down here. Your thoughts? 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 3, 2022 Share Posted February 3, 2022 14 minutes ago, the_other_guy said: If you approach each potential ice storm in NYC with the bias and knowledge that due to geography, topography, and urbanization, the coastal plain is unlikely to see a major icing event, you will be at a good starting point. Shoutout to Snowman19 who accurately called this NYC event to many weenies If you say warm and snowless for every event eventually you'll be right. 6 1 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
southbuffalowx Posted February 3, 2022 Share Posted February 3, 2022 1 hour ago, crossbowftw3 said: 12z HRRR printing out 1.3” of liquid in ZR for elevations of Ulster and Dutchess Counties, which would work to being dangerously close to the .5” marker for an ISW. Models have been printing out 0.75-1.25" of ZR liquid across the Ohio valley where ice storm warnings are in place for 0.5"-0.75" of accretion. Using that as a guide to estimate accretion across the mid Hudson valley, it seems like we're on track for a pretty high impact event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted February 3, 2022 Author Share Posted February 3, 2022 Mt Holly and Upton aren't on the same page with this. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted February 3, 2022 Share Posted February 3, 2022 1 hour ago, NJwx85 said: Since when did this turn into the snowpack observation thread? The impact on snow cover is part of this event. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HeadInTheClouds Posted February 3, 2022 Share Posted February 3, 2022 32 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: If you say warm and snowless for every event eventually you'll be right. Just like a broken clock. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted February 3, 2022 Author Share Posted February 3, 2022 12z RGEM which has always been on the warmer side. It actually has quite a long period of ZR but the precip isn't as intense as some of the other guidance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted February 3, 2022 Author Share Posted February 3, 2022 15 minutes ago, southbuffalowx said: Models have been printing out 0.75-1.25" of ZR liquid across the Ohio valley where ice storm warnings are in place for 0.5"-0.75" of accretion. Using that as a guide to estimate accretion across the mid Hudson valley, it seems like we're on track for a pretty high impact event. How much of the rain actually freezes on contact really depends on intensity and surface temps. The 3k NAM has most of Northern Bergen and Southern Rockland sitting between 28 and 30 degrees when the heaviest is falling. Would think you would get pretty good accretion at those temps. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted February 3, 2022 Share Posted February 3, 2022 RGEM/NAM now look like almost all rain for the city. Looks like the freezing line makes it to around the Bronx/Westchester border at it's southernmost point with precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted February 3, 2022 Share Posted February 3, 2022 48 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: If you say warm and snowless for every event eventually you'll be right. I mean geographically they are right that an ice storm is NYC is very very very rare, thats why I didn't really trust when the guidance was showing big icing to the city (I know some guidance still is showing mild icing in the city). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CPcantmeasuresnow Posted February 3, 2022 Share Posted February 3, 2022 1 hour ago, NJwx85 said: Since when did this turn into the snowpack observation thread? Yes the HRRR doesn't have much ice South of 287 in Rockland but the GFS, 06z 3K NAM and some of the other mesoscale models are still on board. 12z will be telling. Snowpack 6 inches. Will be reporting again tomorrow morning. 3 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted February 3, 2022 Author Share Posted February 3, 2022 GFS won't back down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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