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February 2022


cleetussnow
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Morning thoughts…

Today will be cloudy, rainy and mild. High temperatures will likely reach the upper 50s and lower 60s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include:

New York City (Central Park): 58°

Newark: 59°

Philadelphia: 64°

Tomorrow will be very warm before colder air returns.

Normals:

New York City: 30-Year: 43.6°; 15-Year: 43.8°

Newark: 30-Year: 44.6°; 15-Year: 44.8°

Philadelphia: 30-Year: 45.9°; 15-Year: 45.8°

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The last 7 days of February are averaging 36degs.(28/43) or -1.

Month to date is  37.1[+1.9].        February should end at  36.8[+0.9].

Reached 50 here yesterday.

Today: 51-54, cloudy,  wind e. to s. to w. and breezy bet.: 3pm-3am + rain, 53 tomorrow AM.

Snow{front loaded only}on Friday: T to 4".    Snow to sleet to rain, ends as a mix or a mess.

44*(88%RH) here at 6am{was 43* at 2am}      50* at 10am.      53* at 2pm.       49* at 4pm.       58* at 11pm!

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8 minutes ago, bluewave said:

It looks like the SE Ridge will continue to be a player heading into March. The EPS has a colder start to March around the 1st. Then the SE Ridge flexes again and we warm up. 


47EEF8E2-502A-40D6-AD4B-AA3E7A94CEFF.gif.25a4545e4177da32a57fcdc412565e8e.gif

60A25EB2-80BA-43CD-A27A-A90C5C7ACC16.gif.43d4355731549f4be3f050356c8ee551.gif

E78A6BC2-2928-4549-9A9F-E4E627F6C496.gif.0f20146d062c43afd72056c101ddf415.gif

 

Back and forth 

Cold air should dominate March if the epo forecasts are right. Could be a wintry month.

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2 hours ago, MJO812 said:

Back and forth 

Cold air should dominate March if the epo forecasts are right. Could be a wintry month.

With the March wavelengths, the -EPO-PNA +AO is warm for us. So we would need some help from a -AO or more +PNA for a cold month. Still to early to tell what the month will look like before we see how the models look next week.

 

 

 

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Temps same timeframe. 

One good thing about this look is although it's definitely a "cutter" look similar to the storm coming this Friday, in the look below there would be a deeper cold layer in advance of the storm.

Most likely a few 1 to 3 2 to 4 then mix rain scenarios.

 

1441317643_gfs-ens_T850a_nhem_65(2).thumb.png.0b6a547474e5f4c15cee356c794d519f.png

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1 hour ago, bluewave said:

With the March wavelengths, the -EPO-PNA +AO is warm for us. So we would need some help from a -AO or more +PNA for a cold month. Still to early to tell what the month will look like before we see how the models look next week.

 

 

 

Yea, not sure why some think that pattern looks so great…..yea, there’s the -EPO but you also have ++NAO, ++AO and -PNA. The SPV is still projected to be raging strong as well, so those teleconnection forecasts showing an AO drop around mid-March are very suspect. And, it’s going to be into mid-March at that point. Yawn…..

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15 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Yea, not sure why some think that pattern looks so great…..yea, there’s the -EPO but you also have ++NAO, ++AO and -PNA. The SPV is still projected to be raging strong as well, so those teleconnection forecasts showing an AO drop around mid-March are very suspect. And, it’s going to be into mid-March at that point. Yawn…..

The EPS has a colder start to March on the 1st . But warms up a few days later as the -EPO-PNA +AO pumps the SE Ridge. We’ll see if the ridge can build over the pole and drop the -AO during the 2nd week of March. It will have to be strong enough to push back against the SE Ridge. 

875EF9E2-1B74-4D0A-8F73-40072BF46951.thumb.png.9372b22d59eb16086f1c386934f43011.png


9B5A8FDE-90B5-4A6E-953B-E55DEF69F9BD.thumb.jpeg.6eb3afaf1359fd04dd502b945b2298ca.jpeg

 

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6 hours ago, bluewave said:

It looks like the SE Ridge will continue to be a player heading into March. The EPS has a colder start to March around the 1st. Then the SE Ridge flexes again and we warm up. 


47EEF8E2-502A-40D6-AD4B-AA3E7A94CEFF.gif.25a4545e4177da32a57fcdc412565e8e.gif

60A25EB2-80BA-43CD-A27A-A90C5C7ACC16.gif.43d4355731549f4be3f050356c8ee551.gif

E78A6BC2-2928-4549-9A9F-E4E627F6C496.gif.0f20146d062c43afd72056c101ddf415.gif

 

why cant the SE Ridge flex and bring us that snowstorm Sunday into Monday?  Thats like a bully, it disappears when a storm is about to come and comes back when the storm goes away.

 

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4 hours ago, EastonSN+ said:

Temps same timeframe. 

One good thing about this look is although it's definitely a "cutter" look similar to the storm coming this Friday, in the look below there would be a deeper cold layer in advance of the storm.

Most likely a few 1 to 3 2 to 4 then mix rain scenarios.

 

1441317643_gfs-ens_T850a_nhem_65(2).thumb.png.0b6a547474e5f4c15cee356c794d519f.png

this looks to be a month where we get some accumulating snow but no big snowstorms.  We'll be lucky to get a 6" snowstorm....this looks like a few 1-3 or 2-4 events.  I dont think we will get to double digit snowfall in March.  Maybe near average snowfall.

Does anyone actually like snow changing to rain scenarios?  I dont....it might as well be all rain or just be sunny and warm in that case.

 

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4 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

this looks to be a month where we get some accumulating snow but no big snowstorms.  We'll be lucky to get a 6" snowstorm....this looks like a few 1-3 or 2-4 events.  I dont think we will get to double digit snowfall in March.  Maybe near average snowfall.

Does anyone actually like snow changing to rain scenarios?  I dont....it might as well be all rain or just be sunny and warm in that case.

 

Yeah it's more of the same like this Friday, and yes likely light to moderate across the forum.

For me it's about tow things. 1.) Kids play in the snow which this is not great for and 2.) I want to be able to continue to say "only 6 below average snowfall seasons this century".

Therefore for me get me enough snow any way I can get it to get me to my 30 to 35 area range.

Need 11.5.

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