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February 2022


cleetussnow
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26 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Euro has 60 mph winds down to 300 ft on Fire Island which is one of the windier spots in these events.


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At 10m, this is what euros saying. Translating to 50-55mphs  models were suggesting 70-75 other day at 500ft or so.  Again the NWS say the big winds are going be about 500ft up in eastern areas. 

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4 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

I regularly mix up 1 and 2....never 3, since that was the GOAT!

 

Hi...off topic, but I don't post here much mostly just read, but just was wondering if you knew there was a multi quote function. I always see you quote one at a time for like 10 posts in a row lol. Cheers

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51 minutes ago, sn0w said:

Hi...off topic, but I don't post here much mostly just read, but just was wondering if you knew there was a multi quote function. I always see you quote one at a time for like 10 posts in a row lol. Cheers

Oh thanks I just noticed that!

 

Actually the main reason I don't use it is because I always think of more to say later on so it's difficult to plan to multiquote when the original idea is to only quote one person lol.

 

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3 hours ago, HVSnowLover said:

I think it depends on track, NYC basically needs perfect track and intensity to pull it off which I guess supports your point if its reliant on an almost perfect setup. 

the temps are immensely important too I'd like to see high/low splits for every post February event going back to say, 1950.

 

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3 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Oh thanks I just noticed that!

 

Actually the main reason I don't use it is because I always think of more to say later on so it's difficult to plan to multiquote when the original idea is to only quote one person lol.

 

You can edit your original post when you think of more to say.  Honestly, more people might actually read it if you do it that way.  Unless the habit of skipping past the green circled L is too deeply ingrained.

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3 hours ago, HVSnowLover said:

That storm looks like the best example of the UHI affect, I honestly don't remember each individual storm that great but clearly central LI getting more than the city with this doesn't look based on track. 

yeah and look at how Brooklyn, Queens and SW Nassau suck so bad and with a storm slightly to the east it shouldn't be like that.

 

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Just now, NorthShoreWx said:

You can edit your original post when you think of more to say.  Honestly, more people might actually read it if you do it that way.  Unless the habit of skipping past the green L is too deeply ingrained.

Thanks, but doesn't it seem a bit weird to answer different subject matter all in the same post?  I'll try it but I thought it'd be confusing to follow.

 

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4 hours ago, bluewave said:

It’s interesting that March 1-15th has been better for 12”+ snowfall maxes in the OKX zones than the 2nd half of February since 2010. It has also been much better than all the 2 week periods before January 15th. So a snowfall max from mid-January to mid-February and a 2nd peak in early March.

 

Roughly 2 week snowfall periods since 2010 and number of 12"+ snowstorms in OKX zones

Oct 29-Nov 15.....3

Nov 16-Nov 30....0

Dec 1- Dec 15.....0

Dec 16-Dec 31....3

Jan1-Jan 15.......4

Jan16-Jan 31.....6

Feb 1-Feb 15.....7

Feb 16-Feb 28...1

Mar 1- Mar 15....6

Mar 16-Mar 31...1

Apr 1-Apr 16.....0

and yet we still have a big fat 0 of those 12"+ events in early March here in SW Nassau lol as well as the 5 boroughs (going by the official sites.)

What I find really weird is that January is so close to December in the historical record for those big snowstorms but still lags far behind February.  Have you recently seen a trend for February to be warmer and our snowfall peak move to January?  If you just go by 20" storms, it seems like the peak has shifted from February to January?

 

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1 minute ago, NorthShoreWx said:

It can't possibly seem any weirder or more difficult to follow than 10 posts in a row.

True...okay I have an idea.  Instead of having 10 quotes in one post, I'll try 3 and see if that helps.  That should make it easier to read too.

10 quotes in one post sounds unmanageable but 3 should be okay to start with.

 

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5 hours ago, Nibor said:

This is my biggest complaint. A private corporation taking it upon themselves to name storms in the guise of public good just screams greedy corportate marketing.

When someone googles the name of a winter storm where do they end up going to get their information? The weather channel. Not the NWS.

Ireland (and England) is tracking storm Eunice.  That's "E", as in storm 5.  I think the latest "named" patch of drizzle on TWC was something like #50.  I have enough trouble remembering my kids names.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/videos

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10521289/100mph-Storm-Eunice-likely-upgraded-widespread-danger-life-RED-weather-warning.html

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55 minutes ago, NorthShoreWx said:

Ireland (and England) is tracking storm Eunice.  That's "E", as in storm 5.  I think the latest "named" patch of drizzle on TWC was something like #50.  I have enough trouble remembering my kids names.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/videos

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10521289/100mph-Storm-Eunice-likely-upgraded-widespread-danger-life-RED-weather-warning.html

They were actually using these storm names to make conclusions that we are trending towards less winter storms than we had when they first began naming them.

Produced a bunch of graphics with their logo on them to compare how this year has less named storms than previous years when they named them.

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Morning thoughts…

Today will be mostly cloudy and unseasonably warm. Showers are possible late in the day or overnight. It will become increasingly windy late in the day. High temperatures will likely reach the upper 50s and lower 60s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include:

New York City (Central Park): 60°

Newark: 60°

Philadelphia: 65°

Tomorrow will be very windy. Temperatures will fall during the day. A cool weekend lies ahead before temperatures again rebound.

Normals:

New York City: 30-Year: 42.6°; 15-Year: 42.6°

Newark: 30-Year: 43.4°; 15-Year: 43.5°

Philadelphia: 30-Year: 44.7°; 15-Year: 44.5°

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The next 8 days are averaging 43degs.(34/51) or +7.

Month to date is 35.8[+1.1].         Should be  38.2[+3.0]. by the 25th.

Reached 47 yesterday at midnight.

Suddenly GFS has 6" of snow before month is over and during the first week of March cannot even reach 40 degrees eke!     Models play a strange game of Poker.

Today:  55-60, wind s. and breezy-then gusty late,40+mph at JFK., cloudy, rain by 9pm.

51*(77%RH) here at 6am.     52* at 7am.      58* at 9pm.        Down to 52* at Noon.        Spent the afternoon between 49-53.       48* at 8pm, some ground fog.       Back up to 55* at 10pm.

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2 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

Trough axis looks too far East. Suppression depression.

It’s not like that would be static, it’s a smoothed mean. What he’s saying is there’s potential.  We definitely shouldn’t close the shades on this winter. I’m fact I think areas NW of the city may have there best stretch of winter still to come

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