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Potential 1/28-1/30 2022 winter storm


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Just now, PantherJustin said:

Yea I jumped the gun my bad 

No problem.  I will say I didn't like some of the things I saw at the 500 level.  It looked to my amateur eyes that it took a step towards the what the gfs and euro showed at 12z.

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4 minutes ago, GunBlade said:

That isn't the LP that forms from the phase in the 18z run. This run was a little slower and weaker so you have to go out a couple more frames for the LP that forms.image.thumb.png.479c0afa5542ae4132e8bd467d0605ba.png

Even the frame you mentioned is significantly weaker and the blocking high stronger. 

namconus_mslpaNorm_us_fh66_trend.thumb.gif.5723f68e4f0bf9c9c861d941a9ef8d26.gif

 

 

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THe 12km NAM has done this with the last 3 winter storms... A few long range runs way too amped and wet... then a few head scratching whiff runs in the 2-3 day lead time... then settles in the middle where the EURO/RGEM have been all along. Nothing to see here.

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Couple things: the coastal has not been our (our = anyone away from coastal plain) storm on any model besides the NAM for a while now. Seeing it drop it is not surprising given the other models. What has been consistent is the snow breaking out from the upper level system interacting with that developing low. Think last Friday, very very similar. This is definitely trending away from a big event but a snowfall looks somewhat likely for most in NC still 

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This has to be fairly high ratio powder, no? Not often you see a sounding that cold above the surface for the upstate. Not sure the column is saturated high enough to get really good ratio stuff though... probably will be if there's at least moderate intensity bands under the backside band... could be a beautiful inch.

Screen Shot 2022-01-26 at 4.05.46 PM.png

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