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Powerful Multi-regional/ multi-faceted east coastal storm now above medium confidence: Jan 29 -30th, MA to NE, with snow and mix combining high wind, and tides. Unusual early confidence ...

Typhoon Tip

By Typhoon Tip,
in New England

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ORH_wxman
ORH_wxman

I’m deleting all that crap. Anyone make a political references in the wx thread again, I’ll just can them for 5 days. We are the most lenient subforum on here….but everyone should know better than to

bristolri_wx
bristolri_wx

My apologies if this is off topic… As we hit 380 pages on this thread, and we wait for the 18z Euro, I just want to express my gratitude to everyone who participates in these threads. The communi

George001
George001

Ok I’ve seen enough to make my preliminary forecast. Now that the Navy is on board, I am very confident that this low isn’t going to disappear. The question is not going to be out to sea or benchmark

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George001

George001

Posted
Posted

Interesting… a second low formed. In eastern mass, the snow rates have been increasing over the past few hours. My area is up to 8-10 inches or so and areas se that have been in the banding for longer are well over a foot. If that second low ends up becoming dominant, we may see the death band strengthen even more, more snow getting thrown back west. 

 

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JC-CT

JC-CT

Posted
Posted
4 minutes ago, George001 said:

Interesting… a second low formed. In eastern mass, the snow rates have been increasing over the past few hours. My area is up to 8-10 inches or so and areas se that have been in the banding for longer are well over a foot. If that second low ends up becoming dominant, we may see the death band strengthen even more, more snow getting thrown back west. 

you mean like every model has shown for the past 24 hours?

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dendrite

dendrite

Posted
Posted
Just now, ORH_wxman said:

GFS was trash too until really late in the game. Model guidance overall struggled in this one for sure. 

Yeah they all struggled, but I think the GFS had the best idea. I’m looking at 00z from Thu night and the euro had me deformed for probably 2ft while the gfs had the banding signal where it’s pounding today with a big dropoff westward. 

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Yeah they all struggled, but I think the GFS had the best idea. I’m looking at 00z from Thu night and the euro had me deformed for probably 2ft while the gfs had the banding signal where it’s pounding today with a big dropoff westward. 

Yeah the amped runs were definitely horrible. But it’s hard to ignore some of those GFS runs that we’re struggling to give BOS 8-9” too and might have failed to give me warning amounts. Though I think if we look solely at the midlevels, the GFS may have been better…but its dry bias in these coastals showed up for sure which probably made some of the solutions look worse than they actually were. 

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dendrite

dendrite

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah the amped runs were definitely horrible. But it’s hard to ignore some of those GFS runs that we’re struggling to give BOS 8-9” too and might have failed to give me warning amounts. Though I think if we look solely at the midlevels, the GFS may have been better…but its dry bias in these coastals showed up for sure which probably made some of the solutions look worse than they actually were. 

As usual a blend probably wins again. It’ll be difficult to verify QPF in this one due to the wind.

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, dendrite said:

As usual a blend probably wins again. It’ll be difficult to verify QPF in this one due to the wind.

Yeah the Asos QPF is going to be horrific and even melting down won’t be super easy since you gotta find a spot that isn’t drifted too bad. 
 

I may cut a biscuit at the end of this just to see. Thankfully there’s a lot woods around the house so it limits the drifting some. 

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
Posted
6 minutes ago, griteater said:

700mb low and frontogenesis (SPC Mesoanalysis)

jan-28-700-Fronto-Loop.gif

That’s a good image and shows how the elongated low helped keep the best fronto banding pinned to the coast. If that midlevel center is not as elongated, then that fronto get shoved back much further west. 

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griteater

griteater

Posted
Posted
9 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

That’s a good image and shows how the elongated low helped keep the best fronto banding pinned to the coast. If that midlevel center is not as elongated, then that fronto get shoved back much further west. 

I always thought the 500mb evolution was a bit different here as well with the way this 'jumps' fairly quickly from WV / W NC to the Cape before slowing down / closing off....as opposed to it doing this process quicker off the Delmarva without the jump (possibly a +NAO element there)

Jan-28-500mb.gif

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