Powerful Multi-regional/ multi-faceted east coastal storm now above medium confidence: Jan 29 -30th, MA to NE, with snow and mix combining high wind, and tides. Unusual early confidence ...

[JC-CT]

Just now, apm said:

Look at the size of this "dry slot"  

You left some of it out

[weathafella]

23 minutes ago, apm said:

Yeah, doesn't look like it's going to quite make it...

Moving in to the city now!

[dendrite]

36 minutes ago, apm said:

Look at the size of this "dry slot"  

It’s over the Cape.

[dendrite]

1 hour ago, dendrite said:

How is that tripod standing?

Not sure why everyone is confused. The 3 legs are barely open…lol

[George001]

Interesting… a second low formed. In eastern mass, the snow rates have been increasing over the past few hours. My area is up to 8-10 inches or so and areas se that have been in the banding for longer are well over a foot. If that second low ends up becoming dominant, we may see the death band strengthen even more, more snow getting thrown back west. 

 

[JC-CT]

4 minutes ago, George001 said:

Interesting… a second low formed. In eastern mass, the snow rates have been increasing over the past few hours. My area is up to 8-10 inches or so and areas se that have been in the banding for longer are well over a foot. If that second low ends up becoming dominant, we may see the death band strengthen even more, more snow getting thrown back west. 

you mean like every model has shown for the past 24 hours?

[mulen]

18 minutes ago, weathafella said:

Moving in to the city now!

Hope you get crushed old friend from a blast from the past stay well you and the family.

[dendrite]

6 minutes ago, JC-CT said:

you mean like every model has shown for the past 24 hours?

George has only seen the navgem.

[weathafella]

3 minutes ago, mulen said:

Hope you get crushed old friend from a blast from the past stay well you and the family.

Jeff!   You moved to Florida!   We’ve been thinking about it.  Stay well my friend!

[wx_observer]

57 minutes ago, apm said:

Look at the size of this "dry slot"  

This is a pretty neat sat image…for both the double low, and the rippling of clouds between them. Will be interesting to see how that area evolves in the next few hours.

[Kitzbuhel Craver]

2 hours ago, apm said:

Look at the size of this "dry slot"  

Lol, that looks just like a kid’s toy T-Rex…

[dryslot]

1 hour ago, JC-CT said:

you mean like every model has shown for the past 24 hours?

Clearly georges eyes were closed behind his weenie goggles and missed the 2 lows that were modeled for the last 36hrs

[78Blizzard]

The Euro had zeroed in for days on the Boston area south.  A big win for it.  The GFS was the big loser.

[dendrite]

11 minutes ago, 78Blizzard said:

The Euro had zeroed in for days on the Boston area south.  A big win for it.  The GFS was the big loser.

lol…the euro sucked

[WeatherWilly]

Already exceeded a lot of the snow totals the GFS was predicting at times. 

[ORH_wxman]

GFS was trash too until really late in the game. Model guidance overall struggled in this one for sure. 

[dendrite]

Just now, ORH_wxman said:

GFS was trash too until really late in the game. Model guidance overall struggled in this one for sure. 

Yeah they all struggled, but I think the GFS had the best idea. I’m looking at 00z from Thu night and the euro had me deformed for probably 2ft while the gfs had the banding signal where it’s pounding today with a big dropoff westward. 

[JC-CT]

4 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

GFS was trash too until really late in the game. Model guidance overall struggled in this one for sure. 

they never saw the convective lows until they started to form

[ORH_wxman]

2 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Yeah they all struggled, but I think the GFS had the best idea. I’m looking at 00z from Thu night and the euro had me deformed for probably 2ft while the gfs had the banding signal where it’s pounding today with a big dropoff westward. 

Yeah the amped runs were definitely horrible. But it’s hard to ignore some of those GFS runs that we’re struggling to give BOS 8-9” too and might have failed to give me warning amounts. Though I think if we look solely at the midlevels, the GFS may have been better…but its dry bias in these coastals showed up for sure which probably made some of the solutions look worse than they actually were. 

[dendrite]

2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah the amped runs were definitely horrible. But it’s hard to ignore some of those GFS runs that we’re struggling to give BOS 8-9” too and might have failed to give me warning amounts. Though I think if we look solely at the midlevels, the GFS may have been better…but its dry bias in these coastals showed up for sure which probably made some of the solutions look worse than they actually were. 

As usual a blend probably wins again. It’ll be difficult to verify QPF in this one due to the wind.

[dryslot]

The thing is, Nailing down the exact areas that the bands would set up, You know some would be under them but 20-30 miles either way is the difference between the haves and have nots.

[ORH_wxman]

1 minute ago, dendrite said:

As usual a blend probably wins again. It’ll be difficult to verify QPF in this one due to the wind.

Yeah the Asos QPF is going to be horrific and even melting down won’t be super easy since you gotta find a spot that isn’t drifted too bad. 
 

I may cut a biscuit at the end of this just to see. Thankfully there’s a lot woods around the house so it limits the drifting some. 

[griteater]

700mb low and frontogenesis (SPC Mesoanalysis)

[ORH_wxman]

6 minutes ago, griteater said:

700mb low and frontogenesis (SPC Mesoanalysis)

That’s a good image and shows how the elongated low helped keep the best fronto banding pinned to the coast. If that midlevel center is not as elongated, then that fronto get shoved back much further west. 

[MaineJayhawk]

14 hours ago, tim123 said:

400 pages for a foot maybe of snow. Lol

 

14 hours ago, tim123 said:

Hi rez models drying up fellas. Maybe someone gets a foot on cape. 

Not aging well, timbo

[griteater]

9 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

That’s a good image and shows how the elongated low helped keep the best fronto banding pinned to the coast. If that midlevel center is not as elongated, then that fronto get shoved back much further west. 

I always thought the 500mb evolution was a bit different here as well with the way this 'jumps' fairly quickly from WV / W NC to the Cape before slowing down / closing off....as opposed to it doing this process quicker off the Delmarva without the jump (possibly a +NAO element there)

[tim123]

8 minutes ago, MaineJayhawk said:

 

Not aging well, timbo

Neither are you. Tiny area getting meaningful snow that will all melt next week

[tim123]

Glad euro worked out. Was getting nervous it was loosing its mojo.

[JC-CT]

Just now, tim123 said:

Glad euro worked out. Was getting nervous it was loosing its mojo.

heh

[Damage In Tolland]

8 minutes ago, tim123 said:

Neither are you. Tiny area getting meaningful snow that will all melt next week

With temps in the 30’s and snow and ice late week? Come on Tiny .