Powerful Multi-regional/ multi-faceted east coastal storm now above medium confidence: Jan 29 -30th, MA to NE, with snow and mix combining high wind, and tides. Unusual early confidence ...

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

7 minutes ago, JC-CT said:

2016?

Not here. Had 8”.

[JC-CT]

Just now, WeatherHappens said:

so how did the 18z cmc suite look?

it looked like your mom

[IowaStorm05]

The calliope crashed to the ground!

Yeah she was blinded by the light.

revved up like a deuce another runner in the night.

[weatherwiz]

Interesting to note the number of members on the very high end here. Mean being skewed by members which probably have very close to 0''. This just goes to show the degree of spread which continues to exist:

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, JC-CT said:

it looked like your mom

MommyHappens

[Baroclinic Zone]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Well, its played the same song for the past two cycles, I'd like a different sound track for 12z.

But they weren't huge shifts.  Well within the margins at that lead time.

[JC-CT]

One possible driver of some tweaks in the exact evolution of this up until go time, keep an eye on strength, timing, precise trajectory. First blue circle is where the vortmax is at 6z hour 0.

 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

Just now, Baroclinic Zone said:

But they weren't huge shifts.  Well within the margins at that lead time.

Which matters A LOT outside of semaatt.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, Baroclinic Zone said:

But they weren't huge shifts.  Well within the margins at that lead time.

I get it, but huge shifts aren't necessary to pork a lot of us. Down there, the storm has granted you weenie immunity, so I get why you breathe easier (pretending you care)

[Baroclinic Zone]

Just now, WeatherHappens said:

so how did the 18z cmc suite look?

Why do want to to know about a model run from 2 cycles ago?

[JC-CT]

1 minute ago, JC-CT said:

One possible driver of some tweaks in the exact evolution of this up until go time, keep an eye on strength, timing, precise trajectory. First blue circle is where the vortmax is at 6z hour 0.

probably should have done it this way

[Baroclinic Zone]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I get it, but huge shifts aren't necessary to pork a lot of us. Down there, the storm has granted you weenie immunity, so I get why you breathe easier (pretending you care)

I wish I were seeing the 24-36" models were spitting out.  12" is my floor for storms that really peak my interest and this one looks pretty locked in for that.  Now I'd like to get a little greedy and see if 20" is back in play.

[weatherwiz]

Even at BOS you have a high spread

[EMontpelierWhiteout]

5 minutes ago, JC-CT said:

probably should have done it this way

GFS does not fully phase the northern energy.  Looks like it is acting as a little kicker east.  Euro till a couple cycles ago had this fully phasing and closing off upper low much further south than GFS.  Has trended toward a later close off.

[CoastalWx]

Just now, weatherwiz said:

Even at BOS you have a high spread

Completely useless guidance.

[tiger_deF]

Just now, weatherwiz said:

Even at BOS you have a high spread

I have a feeling we still have lots of suprises left, whether good or bad we'll find out

[PhineasC]

The Euro seemed to be headed towards the GFS at 06z, to be honest. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

10 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

I wish I were seeing the 24-36" models were spitting out.  12" is my floor for storms that really peak my interest and this one looks pretty locked in for that.  Now I'd like to get a little greedy and see if 20" is back in play.

It seemed to me like we were knocking on that door again...then the 00z euro wobbled east a tic, which was fine....but I didn't like 06z doing it again. I hope this isn't a trend of chasing that convective crap. I would love to see 12z and just a tic back west....lets just change the frequency of this "noise".

[weatherwiz]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

Completely useless guidance.

The SREF plumes? They're alright...just a good way to quickly (and easily) illustrate spread. 

[klw]

SREF Plumes for KLEB (Leb NH) which is the closest site to me is 0 to 33.2.  Seems to about cover the possibilities

[40/70 Benchmark]

4 minutes ago, EMontpelierWhiteout said:

GFS does not fully phase the northern energy.  Looks like it is acting as a little kicker east.  Euro till a couple cycles ago had this fully phasing and closing off upper low much further south than GFS.  Has trended toward a later close off.

These are the changes I have been preaching about over the past several days....models always view phases with beer googles until you get to like legit 12 hours out, and sometimes never really view it correctly. Exceedingly rare to phase as proficiently as modeled....this is why I kept selling the early capture crap and saying it would tick NE. Folks kept telling me the earlier capture made sense synoptically, and I was just  like ..."wait for it".

[weatherwiz]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

These are the changes I have been preaching about over the past several days....models always view phases with beer googles until you get to like legit 12 hours out, and sometimes never really view it correctly. Exceedingly rare to phase as proficiently as modeled....this is why I kept selling the early capture crap and saying it would tick NE. Folks kept telling me the earlier capture made sense synoptically, and I was just  like ..."wait for it".

If a post could ever be pinned, this would be the one. 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

These are the changes I have been preaching about over the past several days....models always view phases with beer googles until you get to like legit 12 hours out, and sometimes never really view it correctly. Exceedingly rare to phase as proficiently as modeled....this is why I kept selling the early capture crap and saying it would tick NE. Folks kept telling me the earlier capture made sense synoptically, and I was just  like ..."wait for it".

Yup.

[Typhoon Tip]

3 hours ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah good to see the 06z suite bump west. There is still some uncertainty on the capture location and stall length, etc. That will determine whether this is a historic storm or just a really big storm that doesn’t make it into top 10 status. Western crowd too is still pretty sensitive to 25 mile wobbles. 

Also depends on what metric we're focused upon when making that distinction in post-storm-mortem.   Obviously to this group/social mediasphere of contributors, there's bit of a focus-bias wrt to snow.  But like you say, capture and location, lenth of time, and at what time along the gestation of the event, are problematic for much more than snow.  Grid concerns, tidal flooding, and even straight up wind damage ( more coast and SE zones), add to that 'historic' framework.  

I'm just trying to be more broadly inclusive.  The tide Saturday night should be astro lower, but still high, without a storm... Tough arithmetic, when sig wave hgt guidance has routine 30 footers, what ...10 miles off Harbor entries...  I would not want to be a master or super of any marina from PWM to NJ Saturday night, with a 968 mb low temporarily stalled, or even retro ... That's the other thing, if the capture/stall stuff gets more proficient, it may actually manifest as a loop, send additional momentum that way.  

We could end up with CF problem that ranks, with significant grid problems SE of ASH-ORH (~), and only 15" ...  It's still probably arguable as a historic event.  Also, these pressure depths being put out... if this really gets down 963 or whatever...  I can't find a Nor'easter type coastal of this nature, that deep.  

Lol, watch this break records and be forgettable.  

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

These are the changes I have been preaching about over the past several days....models always view phases with beer googles until you get to like legit 12 hours out, and sometimes never really view it correctly. Exceedingly rare to phase as proficiently as modeled....this is why I kept selling the early capture crap and saying it would tick NE. Folks kept telling me the earlier capture made sense synoptically, and I was just  like ..."wait for it".

Unless the phase is over Albany, those are like death and taxes....lock those bitches in...fitted phase like a glove.

[CT Valley Dryslot]

Southern stream slightly faster @15 on the 12z NAM

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

Just now, weatherwiz said:

If a post could ever be pinned, this would be the one. 

And printed by every WSNE weenie, taped to their bedroom ceiling.

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Yup.

There is a reason why Atlanta, GA hasn't seen a foot of snow in 29 years, despite the long range euro closing H5 down there like 3 times a month

[RI Rob]

Are we even watching the NAM this am?

[WeatherHappens]

24 minutes ago, JC-CT said:

it looked like your mom

that's just mean spirited lol