Powerful Multi-regional/ multi-faceted east coastal storm now above medium confidence: Jan 29 -30th, MA to NE, with snow and mix combining high wind, and tides. Unusual early confidence ...

[JC-CT]

1 minute ago, CT Valley Dryslot said:

1st guess:

East of 495: 12-18

I-91 to I-495: 6-12

Route 7 to I-91: 3-6

 

what the heck is a route 7

[CCHurricane]

8 minutes ago, CT Valley Dryslot said:

And snowmap.

Quite an odd looking map given projected QPF rates (by even the most conservative global models) and where temps are expected to be. Will be interesting to monitor how this changes. 

[PWMan]

2 minutes ago, tunafish said:

Opening bid from GYX...

 

The PM AFD was decidedly meh, citing east trends.

[WeatherHappens]

i'm going to go conservativ........ 6-24 lol

[MJO812]

I'm done tracking anything until 5 days out and every model shows similar outcomes.

[NeonPeon]

Just now, MJO812 said:

I'm done tracking anything until 5 days out and every model shows similar outcomes.

Ah, but how will you know those conditions are met without tracking?

[JC-CT]

Just now, MJO812 said:

I'm done tracking anything until 5 days out and every model shows similar outcomes.

see you in about 8 days

[WeatherHappens]

Just now, MJO812 said:

I'm done tracking anything until 5 days out and every model shows similar outcomes.

meltdown time?? lol

[mahk_webstah]

6 minutes ago, tunafish said:

Opening bid from GYX...

I will not accept 4-6 gracefully.  I'll have a mean and nasty melt and say bad words.

[snowdazed]

14 minutes ago, CT Valley Dryslot said:

And snowmap.

Why does BOX always put the dividing line for Kent County right over my neighborhood?  

 

[JC-CT]

Just now, mahk_webstah said:

I will not accept 4-6 gracefully.  I'll have a mean and nasty melt and say bad words.

I'm not even mentally prepared to accept 10" gracefully

[Go Kart Mozart]

NAM is fugly aloft at this point.

[MaineJayhawk]

Just now, mahk_webstah said:

I will not accept 4-6 gracefully.  I'll have a mean and nasty melt and say bad words.

You might be wishing for 4-6 by go time

[WinterWolf]

5 minutes ago, JC-CT said:

what the heck is a route 7

I guess you don’t really know CT do you? It’s a road out by the NY boarder/Danbury area. 

[JC-CT]

It's gotten me this far. Take us home, KING.

[JC-CT]

Just now, WinterWolf said:

I guess you don’t really know CT do you? It’s a road out by the NY boarder/Danbury area. 

Why would I ever go out there

[mahk_webstah]

Just now, JC-CT said:

I'm not even mentally prepared to accept 10" gracefully

For most it would be difficult to accept 10" gracefully.

[STILL N OF PIKE]

depending on deform Is fun when trends are East . So not much wiggle room for This to shift East as the East shifts also incorporate more of a initial East push off NC before depending on more of a due north correction and also starts the precip later for many as their won’t be so much of that initial push of moisture 

for Will or Scott, how much more can the models keep dragging that southern stream ...are we at the point where it is A played out trend or it can still be the main reason for future East tickling 

[OrangeCTWX]

Just now, JC-CT said:

Why would I ever go out there

95% of CT says the same thing about your area lol

[wxsniss]

Yeah not liking 18z NAM thru 54... it may have a MVY run in the future, but this one definitely isn't it

[WinterWolf]

Just now, JC-CT said:

Why would I ever go out there

Why would anybody go out your way? Lol. 

[mahk_webstah]

Just now, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Funny there is less confidence today as we went from a direct hit to more of depending on deform . So not much wiggle room for This to shift East as the East shifts also incorporate more of a initial East push off NC before depending on more of a due north correction and also starts the precip later for many as their won’t be so much of that initial push of moisture out ahead 

for Will or Scott, how much more can the models keep dragging that southern stream ...are we at the point where it is A played out trend or it can still be the main reason for future East tickling 

Chris seems to think it is more about the NS

[JC-CT]

Just now, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Funny there is less confidence today as we went from a direct hit to more of depending on deform . So not much wiggle room for This to shift East as the East shifts also incorporate more of a initial East push off NC before depending on more of a due north correction and also starts the precip later for many as their won’t be so much of that initial push of moisture out ahead 

for Will or Scott, how much more can the models keep dragging that southern stream ...are we at the point where it is A played out trend or it can still be the main reason for future East tickling 

there were earlier runs that dragged even more than now, so it's not like physically impossible or anything

[WeatherHappens]

1 minute ago, WinterWolf said:

I guess you don’t really know CT do you? It’s a road out by the NY boarder/Danbury area. 

i don't consider CT even part of New England.....New York can have it

[Damage In Tolland]

29 minutes ago, FXWX said:

Not really... I still like the basic setup (location & intensity of the mid-level features) and try not to do any knee jerk changes when still 48 to 60 hours of go time.  I do fully appreciate what Will has been noting about the southern stream but think there is enough time and wiggle room for this to still pan out very good for most of the area.  Reading through the posts, you'd get the impression from some, not most, but some out there that this thing is going east of Bermuda.  This will still be KU even... The basic layout fo the 850/700/500, etc... still look more than good to produce a widespread heavy, to locally excessive snowfall.  Could western CT/MA end up out of the goods, certainly, but I still love the inflow to take care of that to a large extent... Still too much time to try to get too pessimistic about western arears...  

There seems to be two issues with many folks on this. 1) the qpf queens are really out in full force more than usual  2) Lack of seeing how strong the easterly inflow is with this. When you see snowfall printed out way back into Central NY.. you’d better take your numbers up east of there 

[JC-CT]

Just now, Sn0waddict said:

95% of CT says the same thing about your area lol

 

Just now, WinterWolf said:

Why would anybody go out your way? Lol. 

my area is on the way to providence, butt nuggets

 

 

[WeatherHappens]

1 minute ago, mahk_webstah said:

For most it would be difficult to accept 10" gracefully.

no big deal a little blood and a tear

[weatherwiz]

Quite hung back and much stronger too 

[Go Kart Mozart]

2 minutes ago, JC-CT said:

It's gotten me this far. Take us home, KING.

February 05!

[WinterWolf]

1 minute ago, WeatherHappens said:

i don't consider CT even part of New England.....New York can have it

STFU! What a Stupid comment.