Powerful Multi-regional/ multi-faceted east coastal storm now above medium confidence: Jan 29 -30th, MA to NE, with snow and mix combining high wind, and tides. Unusual early confidence ...

[Brewbeer]

8 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

What is going on in here?

Maybe some snow stealing?

[George001]

Maybe panicked over the 18z gefs run?

The east solutions make no sense, gfs products are unreliable. At 500 mb it looked improved, it buried less energy out west. 

[moneypitmike]

Back to weather things......not sure if anyone had shared this.

[ORH_wxman]

I’m deleting all that crap. Anyone make a political references in the wx thread again, I’ll just can them for 5 days. We are the most lenient subforum on here….but everyone should know better than to f**k up a storm thread with political crap. 
 

Now proceed to your regularly scheduled programming. 

[JC-CT]

[Cold Miser]

43 minutes ago, Superstorm93 said:

Too soon? Boston already pulling out the numbers. 

 

The curse has been unleashed.

[CoastalWx]

10 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

how did it do with that snowstorm on the 17th

It just looks strange it keeps jumping back and forth. I guess we’ll see.

[ORH_wxman]

The GEFS were over the benchmark like 4 days before that BGM inland runner on 1/17 while all that other guidance was way west. 

[Cold Miser]

1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said:

 

Awful throwing that kind of stuff out there right now.

[JC-CT]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

It just looks strange it keeps jumping back and forth. I guess we’ll see.

I wish I had access to the control member for that 18z run. If that went unrealistically east compared to OP, this close to the event the entire ensemble suite will be messed up.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

7 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

I’m deleting all that crap. Anyone make a political references in the wx thread again, I’ll just can them for 5 days. We are the most lenient subforum on here….but everyone should know better than to f**k up a storm thread with political crap. 
 

Now proceed to your regularly scheduled programming. 

Edibles...

[George001]

Just now, ORH_wxman said:

The GEFS were over the benchmark like 4 days before that BGM inland runner on 1/17 while all that other guidance was way west. 

The GEFS said it would be a big snowstorm for my area, but It rained a lot. The GEFS also was out to sea during the Dec 2020 storm, and jumped hundreds of miles west at like 2 days out. 

[ORH_wxman]

2 minutes ago, JC-CT said:

I wish I had access to the control member for that 18z run. If that went unrealistically east compared to OP, this close to the event the entire ensemble suite will be messed up.

 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

11 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

It just looks strange it keeps jumping back and forth. I guess we’ll see.

It was consistently coming nw with practically each cycle then last night and today it starts to jump around like a tanked tollandnite at a man bar. Way too erratic and heavy on booze. 

[ORH_wxman]

1 minute ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Edibles...

I might need some later

[weathafella]

Just now, George001 said:

The GEFS said it would be a big snowstorm for my area, but It rained a lot. The GEFS also was out to sea during the Dec 2020 storm, and jumped hundreds of miles west at like 2 days out. 

That means they suck.

 

example 1-they had you in big snows d6 and lost that.

example 2-yes but an old version which is better since the upgrade.   

[CoastalWx]

5 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

The GEFS were over the benchmark like 4 days before that BGM inland runner on 1/17 while all that other guidance was way west. 

Yeah that’s right Forky, forgot about that. Ha. That was awful.

[JC-CT]

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

 

Thanks Will, so yeah the control obviously looks very much like the mean did. So it basically created the outcome of its lower resolution version.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

Just now, ORH_wxman said:

I WILL need some later

 

[snowman21]

BOX map looks pretty good for a first call. I kinda had the same across CT - 2-4 inches along the NY border to 8-12 395 corridor. Easy to adjust up or down one category without having wild swings in the forecast.

[ORH_wxman]

1 minute ago, JC-CT said:

Thanks Will, so yeah the control obviously looks very much like the mean did. So it basically created the outcome of its lower resolution version.

Yeah I feel pretty comfortable tossing the 18z GEFS. Just a huge outlier. 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

2 minutes ago, snowman21 said:

BOX map looks pretty good for a first call. I kinda had the same across CT - 2-4 inches along the NY border to 8-12 395 corridor. Easy to adjust up or down one category without having wild swings in the forecast.

I have no problem with it either. A little light to the west but we're barely in meso range, lots of time to adjust the paint colors. 

[Winter Wizard]

Wow I can’t recall ever seeing an NWS office pull the trigger on a forecast that early. 

[HoarfrostHubb]

9 minutes ago, Cold Miser said:

Awful throwing that kind of stuff out there right now.

I sent out an email at Mel’s work that the big dog is coming

[weatherwiz]

Very odd from the 18z GEFS, however, I think you can kinda see why the mean was farther east. Just comparing 12z GFS/18z GFS (no comparison to other models) looks like there are some deviations in the evolution of the southern s/w between about 0z-12z Saturday. There are some differences with the north stream too. 

While perhaps an outlier this still tells us that despite getting closer, any subtle changes with any of these features is going to yield wide swing in potential outputs. The goal posts are still wide-ish

[JC-CT]

Looks like the Euro and the GFS have finally met in the middle wrt the handling of the shortwave in the sw conus. euro is actually hanging back a tad more than the gfs this time.

[CoastalWx]

2 minutes ago, Winter Wizard said:

Wow I can’t recall ever seeing an NWS office pull the trigger on a forecast that early. 

Pressure. LOL.

[Cold Miser]

1 minute ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

I sent out an email at Mel’s work that the big dog is coming

Yeah...She is sitting next to me now and mentioned this.  And also said that she told you that she doesn't want it unless it's giving her a snow day. lolz

[Cold Miser]

8 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

I might need some later

 

[HoarfrostHubb]

2 minutes ago, Cold Miser said:

Yeah...She is sitting next to me now and mentioned this.  And also said that she told you that she doesn't want it unless it's giving her a snow day. lolz

Remind her of snow days in June.