Powerful Multi-regional/ multi-faceted east coastal storm now above medium confidence: Jan 29 -30th, MA to NE, with snow and mix combining high wind, and tides. Unusual early confidence ...

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

2 minutes ago, George001 said:

Ok I’ve seen enough to make my preliminary forecast. Now that the Navy is on board, I am very confident that this low isn’t going to disappear. The question is not going to be out to sea or benchmark blizzard, it’s going to be will it be just inside the benchmark or hug the coast? My Initial thoughts are that the low will hug the coast, going from just east of Long Island, to over the cape cod elbow, and then going into the gulf of Maine, rapidly deepening as it comes up the coast. I am forecasting the low to deepen to the 960s. Since this is a preliminary forecast I am going to start conservative and adjust upwards if needed. 

NYC: 12-18 

Central to eastern long island: 16-20 

1-95 corridor, Boston, and interior se ma: 16-20

Worcester: 20-24

Berkshires: 24-28

all of CNE and NNE 20+
 

 

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

23 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

EURO near 30" from me down through Boston to Brett and Bob.

 

Double shot of Narcan please, officer.

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 minutes ago, George001 said:

Ok I’ve seen enough to make my preliminary forecast. Now that the Navy is on board, I am very confident that this low isn’t going to disappear. The question is not going to be out to sea or benchmark blizzard, it’s going to be will it be just inside the benchmark or hug the coast? My Initial thoughts are that the low will hug the coast, going from just east of Long Island, to over the cape cod elbow, and then going into the gulf of Maine, rapidly deepening as it comes up the coast. I am forecasting the low to deepen to the 960s. Since this is a preliminary forecast I am going to start conservative and adjust upwards if needed. 

NYC: 12-18 

Central to eastern long island: 16-20 

1-95 corridor, Boston, and interior se ma: 16-20

Worcester: 20-24

Berkshires: 24-28

all of CNE and NNE 20+
 

 

That actually seems reasonable, just premature.

[Southshorewx]

18 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Not yet. Been here done this. Love the trends. As Will said this ain't no little shit or mini SW kind of screw job, will take a major realignment to screw the pooch, per se.

"Been here done this. Love the trends."  Should be an americanwx tshirt. 

 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Decent shot it ends up a bit west of that....who knows. I feel like we are going to start seeing runs tonight LBSW their way to CT.

I'm leaning a later phase. Learned my lesson over the years to not buy it at face value especially in a fast flow. 

[tiger_deF]

My worst fear is that we'll see every subsequent model run back off slightly until by Friday we have a middling event

[Sey-Mour Snow]

Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

I'm leaning a later phase. Learned my lesson over the years to not buy it at face value especially in a fast flow. 

You are due for a 30 burger my friend.  You missed 2013 right?

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

I'm leaning a later phase. Learned my lesson over the years to not buy it at face value especially in a fast flow. 

Yea, well I am just guessing in relation to imminent modeling trends...not necessarily final outcome

[dryslot]

23 minutes ago, moneypitmike said:

The funny thing is that with the wind largely coming off the river, a lot of our snow will end up blowing over to neighbors.  I saw that with moderately windy storms.  Made shoveling a lot easier for me than accumulations would suggest.

Same here with my leaves, Never have to rake.

[dendrite]

GFS is really carving the southern s/w deeper into the SW 

[dryslot]

24 minutes ago, JC-CT said:

@dryslotdo you navgem?

Nope.

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 minutes ago, tiger_deF said:

My worst fear is that we'll see every subsequent model run back off slightly until by Friday we have a middling event

....then the worst part is listening to people like scooter and Steve lecture you on why you should be thrilled with 7" because they were in 1986.

[CT Valley Dryslot]

Well now the Goofus is holding the vort way back over the Rockies.

[dryslot]

22 minutes ago, Lava Rock said:

Which model u getting?

Sent from my SM-G981U1 using Tapatalk
 

S240

[Ginx snewx]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

That actually seems reasonable, just premature.

Yea for what models show today. Tides... normal near 11ft Boston that's up there ASTRO wise .

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Yea for what models show today. Tides... normal near 11ft Boston that's up there ASTRO wise .

That's why I said premature....I won't make any call until Wednesday.

[dendrite]

Will lol if the goofus loses this to some extent

[CT Valley Dryslot]

Oy.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just check ensembles.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

5 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

You are due for a 30 burger my friend.  You missed 2013 right?

I did. So my last 18+ was 2011. We'll see though, good times ahead regardless. 

[dryslot]

Did george get pushed over the finish line in the other thread? Last i looked he was at 39 weenies, Maybe this one here can?

[MJO812]

Leaving energy back

 

It's a concern but there are always runs like these before big events. 

 

Have to see what the ensembles show

[dryslot]

Its going to be east here at 18z.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, dryslot said:

Its going to be east here at 18z.

Good, but how far.....lol

[weathafella]

It’s resembling euro to a degree 

[dryslot]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Good, but how far.....lol

More then WOR will like.

[SnoSki14]

Goofus said take your feet of snow talk and shove it.

[CT Valley Dryslot]

Honestly looks like some funky convective feedback problems this run.

Southern stream has no reason to not phase.

[40/70 Benchmark]

GEM should come east tonight, which won't be a shock.

[HoarfrostHubb]

5 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Will lol if the goofus loses this to some extent

 I would think it presents at least 1 smeared out abortion along the way