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Thursday 1/20/22 Stat Padder Discussion and Observations


stormtracker
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26 minutes ago, mappy said:

I wasn't trying to give him a hard time. I just didn't understand why it matters whether there is a WWA or not. Not sorry for asking. 

Some of us need to get our bread and milk before the hoards get word of the impending doom.  Once the WWA goes out, the jig is up.    

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URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
109 PM EST Wed Jan 19 2022

DCZ001-MDZ011-013-014-016-504-506-508-VAZ052>056-502-200215-
/O.NEW.KLWX.WW.Y.0008.220120T1100Z-220120T1800Z/
District of Columbia-Southern Baltimore-Prince Georges-
Anne Arundel-Charles-Central and Southeast Montgomery-
Central and Southeast Howard-Southeast Harford-
Prince William/Manassas/Manassas Park-Fairfax-
Arlington/Falls Church/Alexandria-Stafford-Spotsylvania-
Southern Fauquier-
109 PM EST Wed Jan 19 2022

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM TO 1 PM EST
THURSDAY...

* WHAT...Snow. Snow accumulations of up to two inches with locally
  higher amounts around three inches possible.

* WHERE...The District of Columbia, portions of central, northern
  and southern Maryland, and central and northern Virginia.

* WHEN...From 6 AM to 1 PM EST Thursday.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous
  conditions will impact the morning commute.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Precipitation will start as rain and then
  switch over to snow during the Thursday morning commute.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Slow down and use caution while traveling.

When venturing outside, watch your first few steps taken on
steps, sidewalks, and driveways, which could be icy and slippery,
increasing your risk of a fall and injury.

&&

$$
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URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
109 PM EST Wed Jan 19 2022

MDZ004>006-008-503-505-507-VAZ501-505-506-200215-
/O.NEW.KLWX.WW.Y.0008.220120T0900Z-220120T1600Z/
Frederick MD-Carroll-Northern Baltimore-Cecil-
Northwest Montgomery-Northwest Howard-Northwest Harford-
Northern Fauquier-Western Loudoun-Eastern Loudoun-
109 PM EST Wed Jan 19 2022

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM TO 11 AM EST
THURSDAY...

* WHAT...Snow. Snow accumulations of up to two inches with locally
  higher amounts around three inches possible.

* WHERE...Portions of central, north central, northeast and
  northern Maryland and northern Virginia.

* WHEN...From 4 AM to 11 AM EST Thursday.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous
  conditions will impact the morning commute.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Precipitation will start as rain and then
  switch over to snow during the Thursday morning commute.
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Just now, yoda said:
URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
109 PM EST Wed Jan 19 2022

MDZ004>006-008-503-505-507-VAZ501-505-506-200215-
/O.NEW.KLWX.WW.Y.0008.220120T0900Z-220120T1600Z/
Frederick MD-Carroll-Northern Baltimore-Cecil-
Northwest Montgomery-Northwest Howard-Northwest Harford-
Northern Fauquier-Western Loudoun-Eastern Loudoun-
109 PM EST Wed Jan 19 2022

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM TO 11 AM EST
THURSDAY...

* WHAT...Snow. Snow accumulations of up to two inches with locally
  higher amounts around three inches possible.

* WHERE...Portions of central, north central, northeast and
  northern Maryland and northern Virginia.

* WHEN...From 4 AM to 11 AM EST Thursday.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous
  conditions will impact the morning commute.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Precipitation will start as rain and then
  switch over to snow during the Thursday morning commute.

Attaboy

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  • WxUSAF changed the title to Thursday 1/20/22 Stat Padder Discussion and Observations
1 minute ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

You aren’t anymore shafted than many of us. This is the latest map from NWS9FE33A13-9D90-453C-8292-C5CD53F96954.thumb.jpeg.6bd63fb90fedbb5162778781c3436a92.jpeg

It's a humbling reminder of how poor many drivers in this area are - that they feel the need to put out a "Percent Chance of 0.1 Snow" product.   

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14 minutes ago, feloniousq said:

LWX's advisories and forecasts don't match very well at the moment

P & C forecast is based off whole county/zone at the moment. Or my phone has been hacked. I dunno.

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2 minutes ago, jayyy said:

Gotta love how the “stat padder” now looks like its may end up producing more snow than the last storm for the 95 crew lol. Gotta love weather 

Eh, doubt it.  As much as I'm hugging King GFS and Prince NAM, the GFS has been too wet leading into storms this year a few times.  I'd have to get 2.9" to beat Sunday/Monday, which I'm skeptical on.  Hope I'm wrong!

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11 minutes ago, dallen7908 said:

It's a humbling reminder of how poor many drivers in this area are - that they feel the need to put out a "Percent Chance of 0.1 Snow" product.   

Lol every WFO has this product, it has nothing to do with their assessment of how the public handles snowfall. For example, here's NWS Binghamton: 

 

image.thumb.png.137fe8b5b3fc97f0e9452ccf39e7b53d.png

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