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January 20-22 “bring the mojo” winter storm threat


lilj4425
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39 minutes ago, Brick Tamland said:

That is awesome. Models keep bringing the snow farther and farther west. Crazy how this is happening just 24 hours out.

It sure has been a  wild model trip. A northwest trend which i think everyone figured would happen to some degree is one thing but seeing precip shields expand this much this close to an event is pretty impressive. Sure hope it continues into tomorrow. 

 

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Every model just about for 2 weeks has had a min. or completely dry over the NW piedmont and N foothills counties , Stokes, NW Forsyth, Yadkin, Surry. It seems to be trend for awhile, most of the time it has been right. Hence one of the reason Pilot Mountain fire grew so quick

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This is Atlanta's 2014 snowmagedon happening for the Carolinas and maybe far East GA this time. All the way inside 12-24 hours to go little to no snow was expected from Atlanta northward. By the middle of the next day the entire forecast area was under winter storm warnings. Coincidentally that storm has been the top cips analog most of the week.

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8 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said:

That precip shield on the NW side seems to be under done on modeling a lot of times... maybe the models are catching on to that now, or that might not be part of it at all...

That's what I was wondering. If it's possible that they are making adjustments based only on the northern stream wave digging further and may still be underestimating the  NW extent of the precip shield? HRRR still struggling to get the precip field right in Texas and Louisiana in real time.

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With these southern slider solutions the models almost always underdo that precip field. This is still a unique setup though in that you have such cold dry air so any ones guess how much is eaten up say around GSO and CLT. It does feel like now the GFS and RGEM are right and it’s a nowcast for how good our energy does. Do not be shocked if somewhere just east of CLT and GSO gets a good punch and this overperforms. 

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