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January 20-22 “bring the mojo” winter storm threat


lilj4425
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Yeah 18z definitely suppressed but I figured the NW edge would have been a bit farther north. The culprit is very dry mid levels looking at the 850 RH. This is for the 2nd wave. That sure is a sharp cutoff:
1642939200-oukfrfQaehI.png

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18z GFS clearly backing up moisture towards the NW when trended several runs @ hr 78. Cannot post the GIF for some reason, but there is definitely more moisture each run. If that trend continues I would picture it to look similar to the Canadian and Euro. 

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2 minutes ago, PackGrad05 said:

The trends, at the current moment, are not good for central NC.  Looks almost identical to the recent system.

Different kind of system but same result. It feels like the warm nose here gets worse and worse every year lately and really cuts down our snow totals, even when we have surface temps in the 20s.

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To me it’s not the warm nose of storms has been worse. For central NC like CLT, we’ve always needed a low to track near Jacksonville and turn up the coast for good snow. That plays in to climo for us and limits/eliminates the WAA.
 

We haven’t been able to get a pattern to stick in the winter for those storms. Moisture overriding cold almost never works out for CLT. If it does, it’s short lived and/or ends as sleet or freezing rain. 
 

It’s amazing to me that central NC got as much sleet this past storm with the low passing to the west. 

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