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Central PA - Winter 2021/2022


Bubbler86
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21 minutes ago, MAG5035 said:

Yea I don’t know it’s whatever I guess…like I mentioned this morning I don’t know why you don’t put a blanket watch out for at least a big chunk of the CWA and go warning/advisory as needed when you see where the sig ice swath is looking to set up in the near term. It better warns the public IMO. Most non-weenies aren’t going to read the HWO haha.  It was even mentioned in the discussion this morning about issuing watches/warnings even if it’s just short of criteria due to the impact on roads. I mean the model support for warning criteria as well as WPC probs has been there for at least issuing a watch for the potential over a good bit more of the area than they have.

At any rate we’re less than 24hrs from this starting and It’s likely to at least be a higher impact advisory event for most. 1-2”+ of sleet followed by 0.1-0.2” of ice isn’t gonna be much better on the roads than up to an inch of sleet and 0.2-0.4”+ of ice. 

Good points…

I think they spend way too much time worrying about their precious “criteria” instead of getting the proper message out to protect the life & property of the people; which is stated as their primary mission.

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That is a fair move south with the accumulating snow line.  MDT went from 0.7 to 1.2" of snow.  That's more than a 50% increase between runs!  (lol).  Hey even I'm now not far from 1" versus less than 0.5" earlier.

What I don't understand is how multiple models are practically screaming severe ice storm, and have repeatedly shown even 1" of rain that falls with temps below freezing.  It really would be nice to have them explain why the models they created and programmed are putting out data that they seem to blatantly ignore.  I'm not saying I want this type of ice storm.  I'll take as much sleet as I can get.  I'd be willing to bet almost anything that the LSV will wake up tomorrow morning to at least a WWA.  We'll see...

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2 minutes ago, CarlislePaWx said:

That is a fair move south with the accumulating snow line.  MDT went from 0.7 to 1.2" of snow.  That's more than a 50% increase between runs!  (lol).  Hey even I'm now not far from 1" versus less than 0.5" earlier.

What I don't understand is how multiple models are practically screaming severe ice storm, and have repeatedly shown even 1" of rain that falls with temps below freezing.  It really would be nice to have them explain why the models they created and programmed are putting out data that they seem to blatantly ignore.  I'm not saying I want this type of ice storm.  I'll take as much sleet as I can get.  I'd be willing to bet almost anything that the LSV will wake up tomorrow morning to at least a WWA.  We'll see...

I'm really starting to think this one might do a little something around the LSV. I'd say surprise us...but the models as you've mentioned have been painting a pretty icy/sleety future for several days. They've trended colder as of late if anything. If we get the heavier depictions of precip that some models (Euro ie) have shown, look out. 

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12 minutes ago, CarlislePaWx said:

That is a fair move south with the accumulating snow line.  MDT went from 0.7 to 1.2" of snow.  That's more than a 50% increase between runs!  (lol).  Hey even I'm now not far from 1" versus less than 0.5" earlier.

What I don't understand is how multiple models are practically screaming severe ice storm, and have repeatedly shown even 1" of rain that falls with temps below freezing.  It really would be nice to have them explain why the models they created and programmed are putting out data that they seem to blatantly ignore.  I'm not saying I want this type of ice storm.  I'll take as much sleet as I can get.  I'd be willing to bet almost anything that the LSV will wake up tomorrow morning to at least a WWA.  We'll see...

Selinsgrove went from 1.7 to 4.0

Reading went from .6 to 2.2

Still some time left for another tick or 2 south.

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Everyone making comments tonight are very good points. Frankly, they're hard to argue. And as @MAG5035 suggested, at least throw out blanket watches early to get the word out. 

The only word of caution I'll add is that we have been down the ice skating path many times over the years, and many of those events failed to deliver anything close to what models suggested. I'm guessing that's why the hesitancy on CTP's part. Sure, we can question them all we want, but if there is any type of verification grade assessed to forecasts - (I honestly don't know) I know I'd be very hesitant to make a decision until I had to. Goodness knows that I've been scrutinized plenty of times at work for pulling the trigger on some decisions and not pulling the trigger on others. 

It's not easy when you're in the hot seat. 

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Everyone making comments tonight are very good points. Frankly, they're hard to argue. And as [mention=1507]MAG5035[/mention] suggested, at least throw out blanket watches early to get the word out. 
The only word of caution I'll add is that we have been down the ice skating path many times over the years, and many of those events failed to deliver anything close to what models suggested. I'm guessing that's why the hesitancy on CTP's part. Sure, we can question them all we want, but if there is any type of verification grade assessed to forecasts - (I honestly don't know) I know I'd be very hesitant to make a decision until I had to. Goodness knows that I've been scrutinized plenty of times at work for pulling the trigger on some decisions and not pulling the trigger on others. 
It's not easy when you're in the hot seat. 

The problem is that the majority of people have no idea what might happen tomorrow night. They are not on this forum. It needs to be communicated in a much clearer way.
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21 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

Everyone making comments tonight are very good points. Frankly, they're hard to argue. And as @MAG5035 suggested, at least throw out blanket watches early to get the word out. 

The only word of caution I'll add is that we have been down the ice skating path many times over the years, and many of those events failed to deliver anything close to what models suggested. I'm guessing that's why the hesitancy on CTP's part. Sure, we can question them all we want, but if there is any type of verification grade assessed to forecasts - (I honestly don't know) I know I'd be very hesitant to make a decision until I had to. Goodness knows that I've been scrutinized plenty of times at work for pulling the trigger on some decisions and not pulling the trigger on others. 

It's not easy when you're in the hot seat. 

I totally agree that calling for 1/2 to 1" of ice, like some models show, would be crazy.  We have already been down that road more than  once this year.  Temps in the mid 20's, then you worry. At 30-32 I do not think roads are freezing whether the sun is out or not.   So,  then it comes down to how much ice on the trees.

 

 

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10 minutes ago, anotherman said:


The problem is that the majority of people have no idea what might happen tomorrow night. They are not on this forum. It needs to be communicated in a much clearer way.

Oh, I get it. Not arguing that at all.

Flip side of that - say CTP issued a watch or warning tonight and tomorrow night is a nuisance event. Another reason for people to not pay attention to watches/warnings anyway. (which a lot of people already do ignore)

The people that get bent on watches and warnings are the people reading this right now. My family has no clue what the difference between a watch and a warning is, and they're all adults. 

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2 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

I totally agree that calling for 1/2 to 1" of ice, like some models show, would be crazy.  We have already been down that road more than  once this year.  Temps in the mid 20's, then you worry. At 30-32 I do not think roads are freezing whether the sun is out or not.   So then it comes down to how much ice on the trees.

 

 

Yes sir. 

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Just now, Itstrainingtime said:

Oh, I get it. Not arguing that at all.

Flip side of that - say CTP issued a watch or warning tonight and tomorrow night is a nuisance event. Another reason for people to not pay attention to watches/warnings anyway. (which a lot of people already do ignore)

The people that get bent on watches and warnings are the people reading this right now. My family has no clue what the difference between a watch and a warning is, and they're all adults. 

It just happened a few weeks ago.  Waynesboro cancelled school for some showers.   As some have said the shortage of teachers who were healthy also played a part in that. 

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47 minutes ago, CarlislePaWx said:

That is a fair move south with the accumulating snow line.  MDT went from 0.7 to 1.2" of snow.  That's more than a 50% increase between runs!  (lol).  Hey even I'm now not far from 1" versus less than 0.5" earlier.

What I don't understand is how multiple models are practically screaming severe ice storm, and have repeatedly shown even 1" of rain that falls with temps below freezing.  It really would be nice to have them explain why the models they created and programmed are putting out data that they seem to blatantly ignore.  I'm not saying I want this type of ice storm.  I'll take as much sleet as I can get.  I'd be willing to bet almost anything that the LSV will wake up tomorrow morning to at least a WWA.  We'll see...

From what I understand models are very poor at separating zr/sleet. Parameters and rates look like much more sleet than zr to me, except perhaps very late into the storm. 

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I think the 3k NAM’s ice map might be about the most reasonable ZR map I’ve seen all day. Since the NAM seems to be the one seeing the sleet the most, it makes sense that it paints the ridges in 0.25”+ while having less ice in the valleys, simply because that extra 1000-1500’ to fall and refreeze into anchored down CAD at the surface.

I know it seems like I’m conducting the watch/warning train in here but I’m also not expecting a widespread excessive damaging ice event either given the depth of the CAD that should be present (more sleet). My point was just that a good portion of C-PA has more than a reasonable chance of seeing 0.25”+, hence maybe issuing a watch product when there was still 24-36hrs prior to event start. 

I think the only part of central PA that actually does see something more excessive on the order of >0.5”+ is the Laurel’s. It’s going to be a rough go up there. 

image.thumb.png.40cc9c3599804dcd90476c0fea827f85.png

 

 

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Great discussion and comments today from everyone.  It's a double-edged sword for sure.  You throw the watches up early and the impact busts (usually does for ice) then people are hesitant to trust it next time.  The time it does verify though and you have a .5 to 1" of sleet with some freezing rain on top and the travel impacts are more severe than a 6" snow.  Definitely a tough one to forecast for our area!  

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45 minutes ago, canderson said:

From what I understand models are very poor at separating zr/sleet. Parameters and rates look like much more sleet than zr to me, except perhaps very late into the storm. 

I just saw what the 18z Euro had and quite honestly it’s absurd what it’s p-type conditional has vs looking at it’s column temps. I made a post about that with the 12z run and I think 18z run is even colder. It’s even colder than the NAM aloft with all the NAM’s sleet. 

So the Euro is printing out all that freezing rain in southern PA while at the same time having BOTH 925mb AND 850mb temps below zero in the entire LSV except near the Mason-Dixon Line at HR 36 and 39, which are significant precip frames. One thing or the other might be wrong, but if there is that cold of a column I can guarantee freezing rain isn’t going to be the dominant p-type during that portion of the storm. 

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What time does this start for lsv? I saw 7pm on a future radar from local news but then another station said 10pm I work in a hilly area and have a 20 min drive home I get out at 2am. It will be doing what ever by then. I wanted to stay late tonight to make up time missed tomorrow if I leave early

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19 minutes ago, GrandmasterB said:

Great discussion and comments today from everyone.  It's a double-edged sword for sure.  You throw the watches up early and the impact busts (usually does for ice) then people are hesitant to trust it next time.  The time it does verify though and you have a .5 to 1" of sleet with some freezing rain on top and the travel impacts are more severe than a 6" snow.  Definitely a tough one to forecast for our area!  

I've been a skeptic for sure, but gotta say this one may trend in our favor.  0z Nam's went notably south.  HP is doing its thing and mesos starting to show it.  I didnt see much of a CAD feature going into nooners, and looking over thermal profiles we are on the edge down here.  IF NAM is even 1/2 right, we have some winter varieties headed our way.  Gotta say I'm a bit surprised...and happy.  Bring on the sleet aleet...

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49 minutes ago, MAG5035 said:

I just saw what the 18z Euro had and quite honestly it’s absurd what it’s p-type conditional has vs looking at it’s column temps. I made a post about that with the 12z run and I think 18z run is even colder. It’s even colder than the NAM aloft with all the NAM’s sleet. 

So the Euro is printing out all that freezing rain in southern PA while at the same time having BOTH 925mb AND 850mb temps below zero in the entire LSV except near the Mason-Dixon Line at HR 36 and 39, which are significant precip frames. One thing or the other might be wrong, but if there is that cold of a column I can guarantee freezing rain isn’t going to be the dominant p-type during that portion of the storm. 

Only thing I worry about is all season warmth has rushed in wayyyyyy quicker than modeled by many of them so I can see the warm tongue melting near the surface. 

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Winter Weather Advisory

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service State College PA
411 AM EST Thu Feb 24 2022

PAZ010>012-018-019-026>028-035-036-045-056-063>065-242115-
/O.NEW.KCTP.WW.Y.0014.220225T0000Z-220225T1500Z/
Elk-Cameron-Northern Clinton-Northern Centre-Southern Centre-
Huntingdon-Mifflin-Juniata-Fulton-Franklin-Southern Clinton-Perry-
Cumberland-Adams-York-
Including the cities of St. Marys, Ridgway, Emporium, Renovo,
Philipsburg, State College, Huntingdon, Mount Union, Lewistown,
Mifflintown, McConnellsburg, Chambersburg, Lock Haven, Newport,
Carlisle, Gettysburg, and York
411 AM EST Thu Feb 24 2022

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO
10 AM EST FRIDAY...

* WHAT...Mixed precipitation expected. Total sleet and snow
  accumulations of up to 3 inches and ice accumulations between
  one tenth and one quarter of an inch.

* WHERE...Portions of central Pennsylvania.

* WHEN...From 7 PM this evening to 10 AM EST Friday.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous
  conditions will impact the morning commute. Travel disruptions
  are expected to be significant overnight for all of the area,
  and into mid-morning Friday north of Route 22.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Any snow at the beginning of the
  precipitation this evening will quickly turn to sleet. Several
  hours of sleet will be followed by several hours of freezing
  rain. This combination will create a thick layer of ice.
  Temperatures will gradually warm to just above freezing in most
  places late tonight or on Friday morning. Gusty west winds on
  Friday may lead to power outages as the icy trees could fall
  onto power lines. The heavier than normal power lines themselves
  will also be subjected to increased stress from the wind.
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Winter Weather Advisory

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service State College PA
411 AM EST Thu Feb 24 2022

PAZ046-049>053-057>059-066-242115-
/O.NEW.KCTP.WW.Y.0014.220225T0000Z-220225T1500Z/
Southern Lycoming-Union-Snyder-Montour-Northumberland-Columbia-
Dauphin-Schuylkill-Lebanon-Lancaster-
Including the cities of Williamsport, Lewisburg, Selinsgrove,
Danville, Sunbury, Shamokin, Bloomsburg, Berwick, Harrisburg,
Hershey, Pottsville, Lebanon, and Lancaster
411 AM EST Thu Feb 24 2022

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO
10 AM EST FRIDAY...

* WHAT...Mixed precipitation expected. Total sleet and snow
  accumulations of 1 to 3 inches and ice accumulations of one
  tenth to one quarter of an inch. The most snow will be closer to
  Interstate 80, while the lowest sleet and snow amounts are
  expected along and south of the PA Turnpike.

* WHERE...Portions of central Pennsylvania.

* WHEN...From 7 PM this evening to 10 AM EST Friday.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous
  conditions will impact the Friday morning commute. Travel
  disruptions are expected to be significant overnight, and into
  mid-morning Friday north of Interstate 81.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...An initial burst of snow will turn to
  mainly sleet. Several hours of sleet will be followed by several
  hours of freezing rain. This combination will create a thick
  layer of ice. Temperatures will gradually warm to just above
  freezing in most places before sunrise south of Interstate 81
  and later Friday morning north of Interstate 81. Gusty winds on
  Friday, mainly after the precipitation ends, could lead to power
  outages.
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Here are some of DT’s thoughts:

”The WORST of the Freezing rain and Sleet impacts will hit the northern half of the Shenandoah Valley — north of Interstate 64, the Eastern panhandle of West Virginia, all of western and central Maryland, and the southern half of Pennsylvania including all of Metro Philadelphia, the Lehigh Valley, and central interior Pennsylvania”

 

 

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