Central PA - Winter 2021/2022

[Cashtown_Coop]

1 minute ago, Bubbler86 said:

Yes you did.  Pitt stole our deform.   The TimB Blizzard of 22. 

8-10” dump then slotted. Think that’s what we route for 

[Itstrainingtime]

3 minutes ago, Mount Joy Snowman said:

Answer:  She goes north.  Although the snowfall is still quite robust.  'Tis one model run 4+ days out, gaggles of adjustments yet to sort out.

Just looped the entire run - low goes from Richmond almost due north to the M/D line and then turns NE directly over our heads and on to Allentown. 

Allan Huffman (Raleighwx) said that the models are slowing down the storm and that's not a good thing. 

[Bubbler86]

2 minutes ago, Cashtown_Coop said:

8-10” dump then slotted. Think that’s what we route for 

10" is fine with my.  Actually its plenty unless we are going over 2 feet.  Little difference in 10" vs 14" in my book.   The slotted part is also key to avoid pack loss.  Temps for us max out in the mid 30's post storm.  Low to mid 40's for those a bit east so have to watch that potential for a torch even in our area. 

[Itstrainingtime]

4 minutes ago, Cashtown_Coop said:

8-10” dump then slotted. Think that’s what we route for 

Hmm, I thought it looked like a little more than that out your way. Whatever, it's not relevant on Wednesday for a storm coming late Sunday. 

[Bubbler86]

2 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

Just looped the entire run - low goes from Richmond almost due north to the M/D line and then turns NE directly over our heads and on to Allentown. 

Allan Huffman (Raleighwx) said that the models are slowing down the storm and that's not a good thing. 

I read several opinions stating that the slow down is due to a less optimal/slow down of its own progression of the low that forms on the coast a few days earlier.   The slow down and change in conditions is making the trough a bit less optimal in its alignment.  The word last year was tuck...well this is too much tuck. 

 

 

[Cashtown_Coop]

Give me 1” qpf before mixing and I’ll call it a good event.   Next panel is when things mix for western lsv. 
 

 

[Cashtown_Coop]

5 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

Hmm, I thought it looked like a little more than that out your way. Whatever, it's not relevant on Wednesday for a storm coming late Sunday. 

Yeah.  12-14” zoomed in 

 

[Cashtown_Coop]

4 minutes ago, Cashtown_Coop said:

Yeah.  12-14” zoomed in 

 

Honestly I think Mags house is jackpot as it stands now.   Unless we get a new member from Somerset 

[Bubbler86]

Just now, Cashtown_Coop said:

Honestly I think Mags house is jackpot as it stands now.   Unless we get a new member from Somerset 

And atomic 

[Mount Joy Snowman]

1 minute ago, Cashtown_Coop said:

Honestly I think Mags house is jackpot as it stands now.   Unless we get a new member from Somerset 

You know, we really do need someone from the Laurels, preferably an individual who resides in a yurt on the peak of Mt. Davis.

[Cashtown_Coop]

1 minute ago, Bubbler86 said:

And atomic 

Yep.  Forgot he moved.   And our Clearfield 2001x 

[Bubbler86]

Soon time for the EPS to be farther east. 

[Cashtown_Coop]

Just now, Mount Joy Snowman said:

You know, we really do need someone from the Laurels, preferably an individual who resides in a yurt on the peak of Mt. Davis.

Good time to throw this in.   CTP used to have a coop site at mt davis.   Something like 3310ft.    When it was decommissioned I ended up with its mmts ( temperature sensor) for my coop site.   Always thought that was cool.  It has a better life in the lowlands.  

[pasnownut]

8 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

Soon time for the EPS to be farther east. 

So if it is….what would you or others think IF both gfs and euro ens showing?  At some point ops take charge but IMO we aren’t there yet?  

[Wmsptwx]

Plenty of time to go wayyy East or pull a full on cutter, only time will tell. I’d favor East with the set up the way that it is.

[Mount Joy Snowman]

10 minutes ago, Cashtown_Coop said:

Good time to throw this in.   CTP used to have a coop site at mt davis.   Something like 3310ft.    When it was decommissioned I ended up with its mmts ( temperature sensor) for my coop site.   Always thought that was cool.  It has a better life in the lowlands.  

Haha that's great, cool little factoid.  But why in the heck would they get rid of that site?  A pain to maintain?  I mean, why wouldn't weather weenies everywhere want an observation station at the highest point in the state??

[Cashtown_Coop]

10 minutes ago, Mount Joy Snowman said:

Haha that's great, cool little factoid.  But why in the heck would they get rid of that site?  A pain to maintain?  I mean, why wouldn't weather weenies everywhere want an observation station at the highest point in the state??

It became a sub par site.  Missing data etc. It’s happening currently with some sites where data isn’t being sent in by observers.  It truly is a commitment.  
 

There is a coop at Laurel Summit at 2730ft close to mt Davis elevation 

 

hidden valley has one as well 2876ft ski resort 

[Bubbler86]

Snagged from the MA.  Jumped West a bit but not as far as the Op....though this is a singular time in moment shot of one panel

 

[Bubbler86]

46 at 2:30 here. 

[sauss06]

2 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

46 at 2:30 here. 

31

[Cashtown_Coop]

3 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

Snagged from the MA.  Jumped West a bit but not as far as the Op....though this is a singular time in moment shot of one panel

 

 

Op has it close to Richmond 

[MillvilleWx]

Those of you in the LSV should get a good whack from this system. Areas like Franklin/Adams/York counties should clean up along the southern tier before any flip occurs. I think a spot like @Cashtown_Coopshould get hammered along with those along I-81 up to Harrisburg. I'll poke in over the next succession of days. Look forward to living vicariously 

[Bubbler86]

1 minute ago, losetoa6 said:

Just saw the Euro . Real nice thumpin...and nobody mentioned the 30-50 mph gusts .

 

Most of us do have jobs despite seemingly being here all day so the QPF and snow maps is the limit sometimes.  Ha. 

[MAG5035]

Euro did come inside a bit today vs it’s 0z run, although I think the bigger difference was it was a good bit more expansive on the western side of the snowfall swath. It’s also very sharp with it’s changeover line, mainly snow to light rain and little mixing. Lot’s of time to resolve that track in that situation. I think most of the LSV would still see mostly snow in that scenario, just that it would slot out and since the storm is stacked at the point it’s coming through the Mid Atlantic into SE PA… it won’t be long before the cold air is fully entrained into the system (if it already isn’t). The big thing there is just that the best forcing and deform are further west in PA with the inside track. 

GFS has had a different evolution, more of a straight Miller B type with surface reflection carrying up into the OH Valley, allowing for more of a mixing mess but still actually looked marginally better today with more frozen as there is strong coastal development. Euro has a bit of a jump to the coast in the Deep South but it looks like more of an A evolution. Truly huge differences between that and the Euro are out in the middle of the country. GFS has over 30” of snow at the confluence of the Mississippi and Ohio Rivers where Euro has essentially 0”. 

[Cashtown_Coop]

6 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said:

Those of you in the LSV should get a good whack from this system. Areas like Franklin/Adams/York counties should clean up along the southern tier before any flip occurs. I think a spot like @Cashtown_Coopshould get hammered along with those along I-81 up to Harrisburg. I'll poke in over the next succession of days. Look forward to living vicariously 

This post deserves multiple emojis but I’ll with  

[Bubbler86]

3 minutes ago, MAG5035 said:

Euro did come inside a bit today vs it’s 0z run, although I think the bigger difference was it was a good bit more expansive on the western side of the snowfall swath. It’s also very sharp with it’s changeover line, mainly snow to light rain and little mixing. Lot’s of time to resolve that track in that situation. I think most of the LSV would still see mostly snow in that scenario, just that it would slot out and since the storm is stacked at the point it’s coming through the Mid Atlantic into SE PA… it won’t be long before the cold air is fully entrained into the system (if it already isn’t). The big thing there is just that the best forcing and deform are further west in PA with the inside track. 

GFS has had a different evolution, more of a straight Miller B type with surface reflection carrying up into the OH Valley, allowing for more of a mixing mess but still actually looked marginally better today with more frozen as there is strong coastal development. Euro has a bit of a jump to the coast in the Deep South but it looks like more of an A evolution. Truly huge differences between that and the Euro are out in the middle of the country. GFS has over 30” of snow at the confluence of the Mississippi and Ohio Rivers where Euro has essentially 0”. 

Gonna start trouble, Mag! :-).  Everyone is Miller A or go home right now. 

[Bubbler86]

Miss @paweather

[MAG5035]

Euro EPS v. GEFS probs. They are really starting to see the storm now. 

These are 6”+ probs

[CarlislePaWx]

Well, I might not have had my single-digit low this morning that I thought was a given last night...but...I only within the past five minutes have reached freezing!  It's 32.0 degrees for my high of the day so far.  That's a departure of around 8 degrees from the forecast high of 40.  Nothing is melting yet.  That's the biggest surprise.  I still have a solid 2" remaining in my back yard, and there is even still a tiny glaze left on some trees that do not get any direct sun in January.

[cfbaggett]

23 minutes ago, MAG5035 said:

Euro did come inside a bit today vs it’s 0z run, although I think the bigger difference was it was a good bit more expansive on the western side of the snowfall swath. It’s also very sharp with it’s changeover line, mainly snow to light rain and little mixing. Lot’s of time to resolve that track in that situation. I think most of the LSV would still see mostly snow in that scenario, just that it would slot out and since the storm is stacked at the point it’s coming through the Mid Atlantic into SE PA… it won’t be long before the cold air is fully entrained into the system (if it already isn’t). The big thing there is just that the best forcing and deform are further west in PA with the inside track. 

GFS has had a different evolution, more of a straight Miller B type with surface reflection carrying up into the OH Valley, allowing for more of a mixing mess but still actually looked marginally better today with more frozen as there is strong coastal development. Euro has a bit of a jump to the coast in the Deep South but it looks like more of an A evolution. Truly huge differences between that and the Euro are out in the middle of the country. GFS has over 30” of snow at the confluence of the Mississippi and Ohio Rivers where Euro has essentially 0”. 

Wow, I didn't even notice the difference over the OH Valley. And that snowfall is within ~100 hours now for people who don't get much snow! Probably shouldn't post these images in the Central PA forum, but they do, at least for me, help me stay grounded and not worry about individual models or particular runs, even at these relative short ranges.