pasnownut Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 1 hour ago, losetoa6 said: Euro/ UK/Icon / Eps and even the Gefs to an extent favor a further east solution then the Gfs op. Lots of tracking ahead Was just looking over Op vs Ens for GFS and yes, GEFS is a nearly perfect location (and SE of OP SLP near Chessy Bay). GEPS is in between Op and GEPS. Blended together, it would argue a slightly SE SLP of what 6z shows. Not too worried yet, but setting my expectations accordingly down here. If I were in state college to poconos, i'd be rather giddy right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 1 minute ago, Bubbler86 said: Many of the classic storms here have that signature/look and people like you and I will be mostly safe from much taint with that track. Ahh...dreams of stuff 4-5 days away. LOL Exactly. What we need to root for is a bit different compared to the 95 corridor. I love to see a low hugging the coast line of the eastern sure. Now what the Gfs shows wouldn't be great for us. Probably several inches of snow followed by a driving rain which washes away most of what of had fallen. Hopefully it off by a 100 miles or so. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cashtown_Coop Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 2 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: Many of the classic storms here have that signature/look and people like you and I will be mostly safe from much taint with that track. Ahh...dreams of stuff 4-5 days away. LOL I’d feel a lot better if the jackpot was south of us now. I’ve got a bad feeling that in the end, this ends up being a western pa special thorough Buffalo. Our best case scenario is a heavy front thump to a dry slot. Maybe things change, but betting man says euro goes west to match gfs today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cfbaggett Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 ECMWF 06Z Control Run: 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cfbaggett Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 Amazing change in the GFS ensembles in just 24 hours. 6Z yesterday versus 6Z today. Shame this thing is still ~5 days out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 12, 2022 Author Share Posted January 12, 2022 3 minutes ago, cfbaggett said: ECMWF 06Z Control Run: I think would definitely lead to some mixing in the LSV Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 Been there got the t-shirt.4 to 8 inch thump snow….to snizzle and freezing drizzle.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 12, 2022 Author Share Posted January 12, 2022 5 minutes ago, Cashtown_Coop said: I’d feel a lot better if the jackpot was south of us now. I’ve got a bad feeling that in the end, this ends up being a western pa special thorough Buffalo. Our best case scenario is a heavy front thump to a dry slot. Maybe things change, but betting man says euro goes west to match gfs today. With this having been a complete nothing on the Euro 36 hours ago, I agree it would be be surprising to see another drastic change but I personally do not have a feeling for it yet. Because it is still 4-5 days away there is a decent chance it still has suppression issues. Lots of the ensemble panels I saw last night were still a miss for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 12, 2022 Author Share Posted January 12, 2022 8 minutes ago, Chris78 said: Exactly. What we need to root for is a bit different compared to the 95 corridor. I love to see a low hugging the coast line of the eastern sure. Now what the Gfs shows wouldn't be great for us. Probably several inches of snow followed by a driving rain which washes away most of what of had fallen. Hopefully it off by a 100 miles or so. I think the GFS is really the only one, right now, were we do not get a WSW level snow that mostly sticks around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 2 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: I think would definitely lead to some mixing in the LSV Yep, anything inside (or even on) the coastline at that latitude spells drips and pingers in trainingland, and mounds of snow that bubbler cashes in on. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 12, 2022 Author Share Posted January 12, 2022 4 minutes ago, cfbaggett said: Amazing change in the GFS ensembles in just 24 hours. 6Z yesterday versus 6Z today. Shame this thing is still ~5 days out. A lot of 2 storm possibilities there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cashtown_Coop Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 2 minutes ago, Superstorm said: Been there got the t-shirt. 4 to 8 inch thump snow….to snizzle and freezing drizzle. . This is along my current thinking as it looks now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 2 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: With this having been a complete nothing on the Euro 36 hours ago, I agree it would be be surprising to see another drastic change but I personally do not have a feeling for it yet. Because it is still 4-5 days away there is a decent chance it still has suppression issues. Lots of the ensemble panels I saw last night were still a miss for us. A little less than half were "direct" hits and the ones that were not hits were mainly due to suppression. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 12, 2022 Author Share Posted January 12, 2022 1 minute ago, Itstrainingtime said: Yep, anything inside (or even on) the coastline at that latitude spells drips and pingers in trainingland, and mounds of snow that bubbler cashes in on. It depends how it got there for Bubbler and Cashland. But yea we can assume it is not too far inland in the panel or two before that. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 12, 2022 Author Share Posted January 12, 2022 1 minute ago, Itstrainingtime said: A little less than half were "direct" hits and the ones that were not hits were mainly due to suppression. Pretty much what I saw. None of the Op's are suppressing but plenty of the ensembles still were. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 1 minute ago, Bubbler86 said: It depends how it got there for Bubbler and Cashland. But yea we can assume it is not too far inland in the panel or two before that. Thanks for getting it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kerplunk Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 12 minutes ago, pasnownut said: Was just looking over Op vs Ens for GFS and yes, GEFS is a nearly perfect location (and SE of OP SLP near Chessy Bay). GEPS is in between Op and GEPS. Blended together, it would argue a slightly SE SLP of what 6z shows. Not too worried yet, but setting my expectations accordingly down here. If I were in state college to poconos, i'd be rather giddy right now. Count me as giddy. Deform bands are our best chance for major amounts here. Moreso than many other areas where you can count on being in the main precip shield for any prolonged period. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mount Joy Snowman Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 Been studying the 0z suite. I like the evolution that is being shown on the Euro/Ukie, as well as various ensembles, for a more traditional Delmarva to Long Island type coastal storm. While a storm moving due north through central PA wouldn't be unprecedented, it would certainly be unusual. I think we'll see the models converge on the coastal solution, with your classic heavy totals across central and northeastern PA and some mixing issue across southeastern PA. A lot of time left in the game but this outcome makes the most sense to me. As for the pattern at-large, man do we have some nice cold and snow to play with over the coming weeks -- coastals, clippers, lake-effect machine, and everything in between. Let's have some fun with it, as patterns like this only come around so often. Winter has arrived boys and girls, now let's do the damn thang! 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 Just now, Mount Joy Snowman said: Been studying the 0z suite. I like the evolution that is being shown on the Euro/Ukie, as well as various ensembles, for a more traditional Delmarva to Long Island type coastal storm. While a storm moving due north through central PA wouldn't be unprecedented, it would certainly be unusual. I think we'll see the models converge on the coastal solution, with your classic heavy totals across central and northeastern PA and some mixing issue across southeastern PA. A lot of time left in the game but this outcome makes the most sense to me. As for the pattern at-large, man do we have some nice cold and snow to play with over the coming weeks -- coastals, clippers, lake-effect machine, and everything in between. Let's have some fun with it, as patterns like this only come around so often. Winter has arrived boys and girls, now let's do the damn thang! Well said, and well timed. Great post. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 Question I'll throw out to anyone more knowledgeable than I am - a subtle change I've noticed since the 12z runs yesterday is an overall slight weakening of the surface low on some of the models. At first, I was disappointed to see that. However, and I know that the overall track matters more, but would a more wound up low also introduce more mixing issues than a weaker low? Or does that not matter at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 12, 2022 Author Share Posted January 12, 2022 Will see how it plays out but the Nam continues to increase the presence of the wave hanging around the S/E in 36 hours. Even has some mixed precip away from it back into PA. A few days ago it was similar but had since then made the wave minor out...until now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cfbaggett Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 6Z GFS operational low location versus GEFS individual ensemble members. Operational is really on the fringe of the spread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mount Joy Snowman Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 1 minute ago, Itstrainingtime said: Question I'll throw out to anyone more knowledgeable than I am - a subtle change I've noticed since the 12z runs yesterday is an overall slight weakening of the surface low on some of the models. At first, I was disappointed to see that. However, and I know that the overall track matters more, but would a more wound up low also introduce more mixing issues than a weaker low? Or does that not matter at all. Not claiming superior knowledge to you haha but I would say yes that's a distinct possibility, with the stronger system producing more powerful mid-level winds off the ocean and thus increasing the probability of warm layers capable of producing sleet. There are many caveats to this but short answer is yes it could have that effect here. However, I'd still prefer to roll the dice with a wound-up crusher. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 1 hour ago, anotherman said: Euro still looks good for us, but the trends on the GFS op are not good. Comes more west each time. I just posted a summary of Op vs Ens for GFS. GEPS a bit tucked, but still a really really nice spot for many in here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cfbaggett Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 6 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: Question I'll throw out to anyone more knowledgeable than I am - a subtle change I've noticed since the 12z runs yesterday is an overall slight weakening of the surface low on some of the models. At first, I was disappointed to see that. However, and I know that the overall track matters more, but would a more wound up low also introduce more mixing issues than a weaker low? Or does that not matter at all. There's not a one-size-fits-all answer to your question. There's also the possibility that the stronger low will allow stronger upward velocities which will cool the column more, allowing more snow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 3 minutes ago, Mount Joy Snowman said: Not claiming superior knowledge to you haha but I would say yes that's a distinct possibility, with the stronger system producing more powerful mid-level winds off the ocean and thus increasing the probability of warm layers capable of producing sleet. There are many caveats to this but short answer is yes it could have that effect here. However, I'd still prefer to roll the dice with a wound-up crusher. Thanks, and to your last sentence, hence my overall disappointment. As you know, I love weather extremes and I'm all in for bomb cyclone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anotherman Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 Just now, pasnownut said: I just posted a summary of Op vs Ens for GFS. GEPS a bit tucked, but still a really really nice spot for many in here. My problem is that the GEFS seems to be lagging behind the operational. The op is leading the way, and then the GEFS follow. So I'm glad the GEFS members are not as inland, but I'm not sure it matters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 50 minutes ago, Cashtown_Coop said: I’d feel a lot better if the jackpot was south of us now. I’ve got a bad feeling that in the end, this ends up being a western pa special thorough Buffalo. Our best case scenario is a heavy front thump to a dry slot. Maybe things change, but betting man says euro goes west to match gfs today. You're on. I'll take that bet (in beers). Me thinks GFS op ticks east twds its parent ensemble twins... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 45 minutes ago, Superstorm said: Been there got the t-shirt. 4 to 8 inch thump snow….to snizzle and freezing drizzle. . yep, very likely while our pals N and W are cashin in....its how the good ones often roll round these parts. As long as we dont lose whatever we get....I'm cool w/ it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 15 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: Question I'll throw out to anyone more knowledgeable than I am - a subtle change I've noticed since the 12z runs yesterday is an overall slight weakening of the surface low on some of the models. At first, I was disappointed to see that. However, and I know that the overall track matters more, but would a more wound up low also introduce more mixing issues than a weaker low? Or does that not matter at all. Good catch. Started to see this last night. The A talk of some yesterday could now be replace w/ the letter B. transfer happens at 114. And for the record, I AM NOT suggesting that I'm more knowledgeable. Just helping prove your point. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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