canderson Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 Gonna get a WSW - is it going to be a high wind warning or just wind advisory is the better question. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 39 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: Central Va vort pass is usually a great spot for N.Md SC Pa Fantastic news on the GEFS! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 18z GEFS snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 Similar amounts on the 12z EPS for MDT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 Wait lol how is dc doing better than parts of PA on GEFs. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 18 minutes ago, canderson said: Gonna get a WSW - is it going to be a high wind warning or just wind advisory is the better question. Go for the gusto, my friend. Blizzard Warnings all the way!!! 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 2 minutes ago, Voyager said: Go for the gusto, my friend. Blizzard Warnings all the way!!! Now you’re talking! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 Here is the Harrisburg forecast from CTP. Sunday A chance of snow after 1pm. Partly sunny, with a high near 31. Chance of precipitation is 40%. Sunday Night Snow. Low around 24. Chance of precipitation is 80%. M.L.King Day A chance of rain, snow, and freezing rain before 1pm. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 38. Chance of precipitation is 40%. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 48 minutes ago, Superstorm said: The correction is happening. Even the ensembles show it. Op will show it soon. . As some earlier suggested an inland option based on ridge axis, if that's the case, the ridge/trough axis just bumped a bit E/SE...and closer to ideal for many here.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 5 minutes ago, pasnownut said: As some earlier suggested an inland option based on ridge axis, if that's the case, the ridge/trough axis just bumped a bit E/SE...and closer to ideal for many here.... That would help and slightly weaker system would help it not over amp too soon before it reaches our latitude. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 2 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: Decent southeast shift of our SLP on the 18z Euro at 90 hour . Great to see the High over upstate NY too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atomixwx Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 Sunday A chance of snow after 1pm. Mostly sunny, with a high near 26. Chance of precipitation is 30%. Sunday Night Snow likely. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 18. Chance of precipitation is 70%. M.L.King Day A chance of snow before 1pm. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 33. Chance of precipitation is 50 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 13, 2022 Author Share Posted January 13, 2022 1 minute ago, losetoa6 said: 18z JMA has our SLP in the gulf at 84 hours So does the Nam in some manner... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 13, 2022 Author Share Posted January 13, 2022 14 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: Lol. I just posted If the Nam 850's looked better, it would be a something to really keep watch on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 47 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: Nam extraping has to be a money hit Impressive cold w/ HP sitting on us. Verbatim I dunno how this cuts... And the big brother for the same timestamp. These aren't small differences. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 18z EPS probability of 6 inches of snow or more for this event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 10 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: No they aren't. There still alot of spread in the Eps ensembles ( 18z) . I have no doubt if the ns energy dives in quick enough behind our low that it will surely tug it north or nw but timing has to right . It's just not typical to see a low in east Carolina traverse that way . I'm optimistic we get a thump matter what . I pointed out the 84 hr panels because thats when things are coming together, as that will have a notable effect to later panels (and why your coastal Carolina theory might hold some water. ) Until the deep south SLP position and 500's get better resolved, its premature to get "too wrapped up" no matter where one sits IMO (tempting for sure though). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 3 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said: 18z EPS probability of 6 inches of snow or more for this event. Slight jog West vs 12z.....correct? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 18 minutes ago, pasnownut said: Slight jog West vs 12z.....correct? Yes, very slight. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 13, 2022 Author Share Posted January 13, 2022 Nam in the gulf with the lowest pressure . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cashtown_Coop Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 3 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: Nam in the gulf with the lowest pressure . No kidding. Down by the oil rigs at 78 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 13, 2022 Author Share Posted January 13, 2022 1 minute ago, losetoa6 said: Nam looks like a beat down to me incoming Totally agree. It could be bonkers and wrong but the upper level look also improved. Has to be watched for trends within the other suites. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cashtown_Coop Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 1 minute ago, Bubbler86 said: Totally agree. It could be bonkers and wrong but the upper level look also improved. Has to be watched for trends within the other suites. It’s cold. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 3 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: Nam looks like a beat down to me incoming Indeed… Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 2 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: Totally agree. It could be bonkers and wrong but the upper level look also improved. Has to be watched for trends within the other suites. Indeed again.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 13, 2022 Author Share Posted January 13, 2022 Just now, Cashtown_Coop said: It’s cold. Unlike several other depictions, Its not at all threatening a warm up from the southwest through 84 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 2 minutes ago, Cashtown_Coop said: It’s cold. The low should ride the boundary. The boundary is not in the middle of CTP as some of the Ops have shown over the last day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 13, 2022 Author Share Posted January 13, 2022 IMO, the Nam would be more likely to miss to the south if it was not a beatdown. Having trouble seeing what it would cut almost straight North like the others. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atomixwx Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 That's "push it south" kind of cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 13, 2022 Author Share Posted January 13, 2022 5 minutes ago, Atomixwx said: That's "push it south" kind of cold. 500 low is still a bit west so its going to turn North in some manner -OR- probably the more likely issue, is the circled area below. There is a semblance of "wave" there as well with the baggy lines and quick drops in pressure. Almost a dual low. But if the primary stayed down south, that is indeed pretty far south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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