Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,179
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    DClerico
    Newest Member
    DClerico
    Joined

Jan 15-16 Winter Storm


Recommended Posts

Professional lurker here with the utmost appreciation for all you fine folks who know way more than me.

The tiniest difference in temps will determine if I get very cold and wet on my way to work on Sat, or if i need to be prepared to pack an overnight (well, over-day) bag. The hospital I work at is 35-40 min out, and it's all back roads. Rather be safe than sorry... Crossing my fingers that we get a fraction of an inch of snow rather than ice! North GA can be a bit unpredictable with what kind of precip falls, so usually i pay close attention to ground temps. 

Someone may have mentioned this earlier, but does anyone here happen to have ground temp insights before/after the storm? I work nights and am always weary about ice, especially since GA drivers can barely drive in rain, lest winter weather. Snow or cold rain are fine. But icy roads = big problems in this area. 

Please delete if this belongs in banter. And thank you guys for being, well, generally pretty "cool". (See what I did there?) :lol:

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

OP GFS remains well west of the ensemble, but that being said the ensemble just keeps following it every step of the way, just lagging behind by a few runs. Eric Webb on twitter basically saying cling to the GEFS at your own peril, and the OP likely has a better handle, isn't making me feel any better about where things are heading.

 

 

  • Like 1
  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

OP GFS remains well west of the ensemble, but that being said the ensemble just keeps following it every step of the way, just lagging behind by a few runs. Eric Webb on twitter basically saying cling to the GEFS at your own peril, and the OP likely has a better handle, isn't making me feel any better about where things are heading.
 
 
Yeah, 3 ensembles on the LP placement map are west of the apps this run

Sent from my SM-S115DL using Tapatalk

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

CMC still keeps cad locked in more so than gfs. Looking at individual ensembles there are still some nice looking placement of the LP’s. All is not lost guys. I guarantee a whole bunch in here would take a raging sleet fest than a driving rain storm. 

  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

CMC still keeps cad locked in more so than gfs. Looking at individual ensembles there are still some nice looking placement of the LP’s. All is not lost guys. I guarantee a whole bunch in here would take a raging sleet fest than a driving rain storm. 
Or a light glaze of ZR... Depending on how desperate one is

Sent from my SM-S115DL using Tapatalk

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I am still in a camp (and may be the only soul left) to where I believe the models are being ultra aggressive in driving the LP too far north and west. You look at past events and with the baroclinic zone/Gulf Stream, a lot of storms tend to stick there. My money at the moment is a Fayetville/Wilmington to VA Capes track. 

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

I don't know if anybody posted the GSP long term discussion from this afternoon based on the 12z products. We'll see what they have to say on the next round of updates at 4:30a or so.

Quote
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 240 pm EST Tuesday: Looking ahead to the weekend, all
attention turns toward the possibility of a winter storm that would
affect the western Carolinas and northeast Georgia beginning perhaps
as early as Saturday afternoon and possibly continuing through the
better part of Sunday...emphasis on the word "possible". It is worth
noting that the 12Z ECMWF has come around to the GFS idea that a
strong short wave dropping southeastward along the High Plains would
ultimately cut off an upper low over the central/srn Plains Friday
night into Saturday. Also worth noting is the relative run-to-run
consistency seen in the operational GFS with this feature. The
setup begins Friday night into Saturday as the developing split in
the flow helps to slow the progress of a large continental sfc high
moving from Ontario, down across the lower lakes, to Upstate NY/New
England Saturday/Saturday night. This would provide the necessary
source for cold air prior to the arrival of the precip associated
with the upper low, which operational guidance suggests will come
across the lower MS Valley region Saturday night. The operational
models show partial thickness values low enough to support at least
a mix with wintry precip as we acquire isentropic lift on Saturday
that could force the development of said precip by the afternoon. If
this develops as it could, essentially as an activating warm front,
it would help to lock in the cooler sfc temps before the main
mid/upper forcing arrives from the west. The operational models all
show a closed upper low rolling east on Sunday, moving overhead or
to the south of the fcst area, then offshore/northeast on Sunday
night. Be that as it may, this is not the only possible solution,
and some of the ensemble members show very different outcomes
to the upper/sfc pattern. Looking at the GEFS...there has been
a definite trend toward more wintry precip across more of the
fcst area, with the majority of ensemble members at 12Z showing
wintry precip affecting nearly the entire fcst area Saturday
night/Sunday. The plume diagrams, and their supposed total snow
accumulations, appear most tantalizing. However, there are as many
ensemble members showing minimal wintry precip as there are showing
a great deal, and some still showing none at all. Our forecast will
reflect developing confidence in the wintry scenario but limits
the precip probs to the chance range for the time being. The trend
is toward more of a snow possibility along/north of I-85 and more
mixing/changing to sleet/freezing rain south of I-85, but this is
only one scenario. The track of the low will determine how strong
of a warm nose might develop from the south, which would greatly
affect the precip-type distribution. The QPF blend right now is
especially modest, and the conservative approach is preferable
for a system that is still out on Day 4/5. In spite of the trend,
readers are cautioned to manage their expectations...at least for
the time being. Stay tuned.

If this system develops as it could, we would be in for some NW
flow snow on the TN border Sunday night into Monday, otherwise
the remainder of the period would be quiet with a large sfc high
settling across the region Monday into Tuesday.

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 minutes ago, Buddy1987 said:

I am still in a camp (and may be the only soul left) to where I believe the models are being ultra aggressive in driving the LP too far north and west. You look at past events and with the baroclinic zone/Gulf Stream, a lot of storms tend to stick there. My money at the moment is a Fayetville/Wilmington to VA Capes track. 

No, I agree with you.  Thinking it will readjust a bit east somewhat.  At this point though I'd be ecstatic with 4 inches of "crunch"!

  • Like 4
Link to comment
Share on other sites

I am still in a camp (and may be the only soul left) to where I believe the models are being ultra aggressive in driving the LP too far north and west. You look at past events and with the baroclinic zone/Gulf Stream, a lot of storms tend to stick there. My money at the moment is a Fayetville/Wilmington to VA Capes track. 
I'm in that camp too, I'm banking on a coastal track because we always lose the OP globals in this range

Sent from my SM-S115DL using Tapatalk

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
 Share

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.
×
×
  • Create New...