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January 3 CAPE Storm


WxUSAF
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1 hour ago, MN Transplant said:

I know rates always win, but after being out in the yard for the past two hours, I believe that I would define the ground temps as “molten hot lava”.

And that's not factoring in the temps of the pavement which is inner core of the sun hot

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2 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

The storm knows the watches and warning boundaries.  Just like they know when a thread is created 5 days before it arrives and using that info to jinx us.

The storm knows when to do this.  Just when the plane is coming into land

plugged-in-airplane-movie.gif

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12 minutes ago, snowfan said:

No. That’s mathematically impossible.

 

12 minutes ago, H2O said:

image.png.e362d23d98ac378ce8e1ac7dc8023dfe.png

 

9 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

The storm knows the watches and warning boundaries.  Just like they know when a thread is created 5 days before it arrives and using that info to jinx us.

Thanks all, those were the replies I was expecting. Enjoy y’all’s snow. 

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1 minute ago, mappy said:

 

 

Thanks all, those were the replies I was expecting. Enjoy y’all’s snow. 

I usually get rain when not under an advisory.  But you are to the north and that rain changes to snow.  It will snow.  If you don't get snow I will light myself on fire.

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Forecasters are in a tough spot. If it verifies, it will be easy in hindsight to say "The trend was clearly visible and the GFS had it all along, and the NAM proved to have struggles with it. They should have given everyone a couple more inches on the forecast and moved the warnings north!" But back to the present, got to remember that the GFS is still juicing this more than any other model. So far, that admittedly looks like a decent bet, and it has got all the other models beginning to bend the knee. But it could be wrong in its own way too, and blending still rules, so no one is itching to jump out ahead of the trend. If the trend doesn't continue and follow that leap of faith to catch you, suddenly you're falling.

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4 minutes ago, Vice-Regent said:

Nobody posted the ICON.

Such a smol storm. I feel blessed that it ever happened a real thread the needle type situation. If we go by according to the ICON this will generate incredible frustration.

I don't think this is storm mode material but considering the drought of good winter events it should be.

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6 minutes ago, Quasievil said:

Honestly, I can buy into the conservative view here. You either A) go with what a progressive/la Nina 2021 pattern would produce or a B) major snowstorm.

I can see not going with 10+ totals on the GFS because of possible mixing issues at the start.

2-4" is really low balling it though. Factor in a probable flash freeze and it's almost 100% chance of a high impact event that deserves a WSW.

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