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Upstate/Eastern New York-Pattern Change Vs Tughill Curse?


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WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM TO 11 AM EST
FRIDAY...

* WHAT...Mixed precipitation expected along with flash freeze
  potential. Total snow accumulations of up to one inch and ice
  accumulations of a light glaze.

* WHERE...Northern Oneida, Yates, Seneca, Southern Cayuga,
  Onondaga, Steuben, Madison and Southern Oneida counties.

* WHEN...From 1 AM to 11 AM EST Friday.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous
  conditions could impact the morning commute.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Strong cold front moves through late
  tonight with temperatures quickly falling into the 20s. Any wet
  and untreated roadways and bridges could quickly freeze.

 

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Arctic front enters WNY early Saturday morning and then will quickly
work from west to east across the region. With BUFKIT profiles
showing steep low level lapse rates and sufficient moisture
extending through the DGZ(-10C to -20C)...should see a brief period
of widespread snow showers along and then briefly behind the front.
Winds will also pick up ahead and behind the front with gusts of 40
to 45 mph. With the frontal passage...CAA will then drop 850 hPa
down to -18C/-20C over the lakes with increasing over lake
instability. Lake snows will then take over...with the best shot at
decent accumulations found east of Lake Ontario. Westerly flow of
260-270 will briefly make use of the longer fetch of the lake before
flow veers to NW late in the afternoon. That said...flow isn`t all
that well aligned with a bit of shear. This will likely limit
accumulation but we still could see up 3 to 5 inches across Oswego
Co. and the Tug Hill before the shift south. Off lake Erie...lesser
amounts can be anticipated with 1 to 3 inches at best.

Saturday night...lake snows will focus southeast of the lakes but
will weaken and then diminish as we head into Sunday. Could see some
accumulations but will be on the light side for counties along the
south shore of Lake Ontario. Otherwise...outside of the residual
lake snow it will be a largely dry night as sfc high over the Ohio
Valley influences the Lower Lakes. Should be the coldest night of
this period...lows in the single digits to below zero in spots.
Winds fall off quickly in the evening and then become light...so it
appears there will not be any wind chill issues.
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6 minutes ago, wolfie09 said:

We could see a solid squall line develope along the front Saturday morning.. Models are in surprisingly good agreement lol Small window (4-6hours) of westerly flow behind the front, veering to NW...

nam3km_ref_frzn_neus_43.png

rgem_mslp_pcpn_frzn_neus_44.png

I'll be driving the 90 into the tug on Saturday. Going to plan it out so I get in the best stuff. :lol:

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9 minutes ago, wolfie09 said:

Yeah I know it's kutchie and shame on me lol But several models have this type of look with some wrap around/enhancement early tomorrow morning.. Something I'll be watching for.. Hopefully a few hours of fluff..lol

snku_acc.us_ne - 2022-02-17T170750.462.png

Should be a pretty morning. Imagine the snow will stick to all the trees too. 

B8D53D87-5890-4506-ABCA-C8CCE9111672.png

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Caz looks like it has been fully blown out now.  Buffalo River on the other hand has a major jam in place from Smith Street back to the area behind Tesla.  Two additional jams are lurking just upstream into Kaiser Town area.  Could be some flooding problems down in the First Ward tonight if these start shifting. 

22D6E21D-1587-440E-9FF5-6F45B877E13E.jpeg

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2 hours ago, mississaugasnow said:

Yep. I think I’m looking at 3-6” of snow after the rain. I’m big into international relations so this system is on the back burner. I’m following it a bit but my time is spent following Ukraine-Russia right now 

Relax. Enjoy the snow.  We'll enjoy our rain here. Nothing of substance  is going to happen there. It's baked in theatre.

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4 minutes ago, SouthBuffaloSteve said:

Caz looks like it has been fully blown out now.  Buffalo River on the other hand has a major jam in place from Smith Street back to the area behind Tesla.  Two additional jams are lurking just upstream into Kaiser Town area.  Could be some flooding problems down in the First Ward tonight if these start shifting. 

22D6E21D-1587-440E-9FF5-6F45B877E13E.jpeg

Had a birdseye view from my truck today while in the 90. That area of the Buffalo River was jammed with ice throughout and the water level was no more than 2-3 feet from the bottom of the Harlem Rd bridge. 

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30 minutes ago, Syrmax said:

Relax. Enjoy the snow.  We'll enjoy our rain here. Nothing of substance  is going to happen there. It's baked in theatre.

I think so as well but can never be certain, so I’m following it on some discords 

also 33F and rain here so I’m not missing much. Looking upstream at London and I think we might get a prolonged period of freezing rain instead of snow. 

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12 minutes ago, rochesterdave said:

The R/S line is nearly stationary for the last 90 minutes. Actually ticked North. I’m VERY dubious of 3-6 anywhere stateside. 

Lol I know you’ve mentioned your a winter guy so what I’m about to say will probably make no sense. 
 

Almost identical set up two weeks ago and I was stressing about when the switch over will happen ect.. 

Since I get into spring fever after mid February this storm means nothing to me haha. Rain all night and I wouldn’t be upset. It’s in the 40s and sunny by Sunday/Monday so the snow won’t be around long anyways. 

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