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Obs and nowcast Noon today (12/27) -8A Tuesday (12/28/21) for a wintry mix with possible measurable snow-sleet even to NYC-LI


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Overall assessment as modeling monitored through 6AM Monday.  Complex intermittent snow to sleet to freezing rain scenario with potential for 0.1"-0.5" measurable snow sleet NYC-LI while parts of the I84 corridor receive spotty 1 to possibly 2" snowfall. It should begin in NYC/NJ/ne PA/se NYS between 11A-2P and CT maybe between 2-5P. 

While treated surfaces in metro NYC should be mostly wet, caution is advised everywhere. The National Weather Service has advisories posted for the I84 corridor.  

I think this could be more of a problem further south in NJ.

Also: the worst of this for some of our area could occur near sunrise Tuesday if it clears after midnight and everything refreezes into a frosty icy mess, especially driveways, sidewalks-steps. 

No thread expected (at least not yet) for late Tuesday-early Wednesday where w wintry hazardous mess is expected again-at least for the high terrain of I84 (strong mid level Frontogenesis).

A few graphics to give an idea of what should occur.  631A/27

Screen Shot 2021-12-27 at 5.41.41 AM.png

Screen Shot 2021-12-27 at 5.43.13 AM.png

Screen Shot 2021-12-27 at 5.47.03 AM.png

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For those following this event on the models there have been large differences in the placement of the expected snow accumulations.  In any case at this time there is steady snow falling in places primarily to the south and west of Harrisburg and State College.  Radar shows the area of heavier precip in that area.  The echoes to the north and east of there are primarily virga.  What is interesting right now is moderate to heavy snow coming down in a burst in some places to the SW of Harrisburg along I81.  In particular I just saw a visibility of about 1/4 mile near Chambersburg.  

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9 minutes ago, ForestHillWx said:

Still outside. “Feels” like snow could be possible. The sky was fire red this morning, rather awesome. 

"Red Sky in the morning , Sailor's Warning !"

Radar here shows Virga throughout north central NJ - 35 here on the border of Middlesex/Union County - maybe a mix to start later if we are lucky...

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Full on blue sky and sunshine a little while ago in NW Morris County. A few clouds now. Temp has spiked to 40. It has turned out to be a really nice outdoor day afterall.

Good job by the NAM showing essentially nothing measurable locally with this first batch. It appears to have resolved the low level dry air well. Same with the RGEM.  The radar matched the sim radars pretty well, but the globals were a little too generous with QPF.

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Disappointing about precip being negligible flurries/sw-/ipw- so far through 4P (mPing widespread, ASOS NOT), but letting this play out as posted except snowfall negligible south of I84.  

A bit of hazardous ice is coming, maybe a few minutes of ice pellets back to the northern parts of NYC this eve and certainly ice north of I80 excepting close to NY metro, with the late night clearing offering potential for moisture refreeze toward sunrise Tuesday.  

It's 30/23 here in this part of Wantage and doubt if it rises tonight. All temps probably wet bulbing down 2F by 11P from where they are/were at 4PM.  Toward sunrise, it's the potential clearing sky that permits additional slight rad cooling in the suburbs for a refreeze of whatever qpf occurs.

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