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Mid to Long Range Discussion ~ 2022


buckeyefan1
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5 hours ago, buckeyefan1 said:

Right!? Unless it's cooler than average temps in May, and that looks like an excellent possibility :wub:

I sure hope so. Hold off the heat and humidity as long as possible because you know it's coming soon than later. Keep the cold fronts coming through May.

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17 hours ago, Jmoon said:

I sure hope so. Hold off the heat and humidity as long as possible because you know it's coming soon than later. Keep the cold fronts coming through May.

Overall it’s been a very pleasant spring. I know whats coming in about a month, so every good front feels like such gift right now

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9 hours ago, NorthHillsWx said:

Overall it’s been a very pleasant spring. I know whats coming in about a month, so every good front feels like such gift right now

Yes it has. I agree completely. Any time you can hold off the heat mid to upper 80s low 90s and humidity until the middle or latter part of May is always a win win in the south east because we know the heat and humidity is coming like you said and usually will be with us through the end of October if not later some years. 

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Yes it has. I agree completely. Any time you can hold off the heat mid to upper 80s low 90s and humidity until the middle or latter part of May is always a win win in the south east because we know the heat and humidity is coming like you said and usually will be with us through the end of October if not later some years. 

Agreed. If I’m not mistaken Halloween last year was the first day I legitimately needed a hoodie
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More on the dryness at KSAV: SAV members may especially find this of interest @gtg947h @Awesomesauce81

Dec 2021 -Apr 2022 rainfall: 8.04" vs normal of  16.17" (So, only 50% of normal). So, we need rain badly! I'm starting to irrigate.

- 8th driest on record (back to 1871)

- Driest since 1988-9

- The 7 drier ones were in 1988-9, 1984-5, 1937-8, 1926-7, 1910-1, 1897-8, and 1889-90

- Regarding ENSO, 4 of those 7 drier periods were during La Nina (like 2021-2) and other 3 were during cold neutral.

- Longterm ENSO climo for this area/SE coast favors dryness during La Nina and wetness during El Nino (wettest ones usually stronger).

- The driest El Nino Dec-Apr was 9.62" (1930-1) followed by 9.72" (2006-7). Only 2 El Nino below 10" and none below 9.62".

 So, I’m hoping for a wet May. But with La Niña continuing, prospects from an ENSO perspective are not good. Model consensus doesn’t show any major relief anytime soon unfortunately.

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30 minutes ago, GaWx said:

More on the dryness at KSAV: SAV members may especially find this of interest @gtg947h @Awesomesauce81

Dec 2021 -Apr 2022 rainfall: 8.04" vs normal of  16.17" (So, only 50% of normal). So, we need rain badly! I'm starting to irrigate.

- 8th driest on record (back to 1871)

- Driest since 1988-9

- The 7 drier ones were in 1988-9, 1984-5, 1937-8, 1926-7, 1910-1, 1897-8, and 1889-90

- Regarding ENSO, 4 of those 7 drier periods were during La Nina (like 2021-2) and other 3 were during cold neutral.

- Longterm ENSO climo for this area/SE coast favors dryness during La Nina and wetness during El Nino (wettest ones usually stronger).

- The driest El Nino Dec-Apr was 9.62" (1930-1) followed by 9.72" (2006-7). Only 2 El Nino below 10" and none below 9.62".

 So, I’m hoping for a wet May. But with La Niña continuing, prospects from an ENSO perspective are not good. Model consensus doesn’t show any major relief anytime soon unfortunately.

We've been wet down here in Hogtown ... until recently, but when you live on former seabed, the sand drains fast ... my yard is parched already and I'm just waiting for the sea breeze collision season to start ... a good ol' fashioned north central FL rain every couple afternoons (with minimal C to G) will do just fine, thank you ...

Hope y'all get some slow, steady and non-windy precip soon ...

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1 hour ago, pcbjr said:

We've been wet down here in Hogtown ... until recently, but when you live on former seabed, the sand drains fast ... my yard is parched already and I'm just waiting for the sea breeze collision season to start ... a good ol' fashioned north central FL rain every couple afternoons (with minimal C to G) will do just fine, thank you ...

Hope y'all get some slow, steady and non-windy precip soon ...

 Thank you. Hoping y'all get just the right amount of seabreeze collision related rainfall this summer. That is such a cool phenomenon as it is pretty unique (in the US at least) to the FL peninsula!

 Based on looking at the records, the good news for my area even with La Nina continuing is that the correlation to dry in summer/early fall is lower than the rest of the year. There have been a nontrivial number of La Nina summers/early falls that were wet although tropical moisture was often an important part of the equation as one might expect. Whereas I don't want any direct tropical hits from anything strong, I'd welcome the moisture associated with either indirect effects or nondamaging systems, which are thankfully much more common than damaging here. Better yet would be plentiful ordinary summertime late day convection.

 Hopefully Hogtown is spared anything bad this year! With La Nina now likely to continue, we both may have to be on our toes this season as per climo.

 

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Tropical trouble on the horizon?

GSP

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 145 PM EDT Thursday: The upper low and surface cyclone fall
out of phase as they drift off the coast, becoming vertically
stacked by Monday evening.  Ridging intensifies over the eastern
CONUS, while a broad subtropical high begins to stall the stacked
low off the Carolina coast on Tuesday.  Model trio consisting of
the GFS, ECMWF, and CMC presently depicts the low reversing course
and nudging back westward, then drifting down the Carolina/Georgia
coast from midweek onward.  This results in an influx of moisture,
possibly for an extended period, but the evolution of the system
remains somewhat in question as do specific rainfall totals;
ensemble depictions of QPF vary wildly from Thursday onward, with
some producing appreciable rainfall as early as Thursday morning
and others holding off on midweek rain but hinting at additional
precipitation after the end of the forecast period.

Temperatures generally remain near-normal through the extended
forecast at this time.  However, especially after Tuesday the
evolution of the retrograding low could have a large impact on
temperatures depending on how things play out.
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2 hours ago, WinstonSalemArlington said:

 

Yep, that low is giving us unusually cool temps and blocking the warmth to our west. May can be a funny month; it can be cool/cold or summer hot. I prefer the cool/cold for right now. As we all know, summer hot will take over for good in the upcoming weeks.  

 

 

 

 

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