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Mid to Long Range Discussion ~ 2022


buckeyefan1
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56 minutes ago, nwohweather said:

Ole mother nature turned up the heat this week eh?

image.thumb.png.b5fce010359b2dff4be19a15aba9ed91.png

 

 That's about how it looks down here, too, for this week. Going back 6 months, my area and nearby has been about the driest in the entire SE US thanks largely to La Nina. The closest official station to here, Hunter AAF (KSVN), has had a mere 6.2" of rainfall since 11/14/21 vs a normal of 21" meaning only 30% of normal! This followed an equally wet six month prior period. (see chart below). Our area is now in severe drought, the worst in GA (see below) and at least as bad as any location in the SE including E NC. I've been regularly irrigating at my house lately based on this and because some of the soil feels like concrete. KSAV, the more inland airport station, has also been similar though not as dry with near 45% of normal. May so far has had a mere fraction of an inch so far with no big rains forecasted anytime soon along with middle 90s for highs later this week. This will only make things worse.

HunterRainLast365DrySinceEarlyNov051522.thumb.png.a7bccee4e74e5d0da9bcd53cc98ed46b.png84863873_Screenshot2022-05-15at22-00-22GeorgiaU.S.DroughtMonitor.thumb.png.4fa92ecf72c4ba889837d210e7d89dd9.png

 

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 Further to the above, the severe drought (D2) continues here with no rain the next 4 days along with forecasts of near record highs in the middle 90s. Thu and Fri. That means that May 1-20th will have had no more than ~0.3". Since way back on 11/8/21, both KSVN and KSAV have had only one 1"+ rain and that was back on Jan 16th! Normal 1"+ events during that period would number ~5-6. The next chance for rain is this weekend. 

 This time series chart of daily rainfall at KSVN over the last 12 months shows very well the stark contrast between the quite wet period 6-12 months ago and the sudden very dry period since: @gtg947h @Awesomesauce81

HunterDailyRainLast365WetThenDry.thumb.png.40b9dea82e45972a5523da6151998624.png

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 That's about how it looks down here, too, for this week. Going back 6 months, my area and nearby has been about the driest in the entire SE US thanks largely to La Nina. The closest official station to here, Hunter AAF (KSVN), has had a mere 6.2" of rainfall since 11/14/21 vs a normal of 21" meaning only 30% of normal! This followed an equally wet six month prior period. (see chart below). Our area is now in severe drought, the worst in GA (see below) and at least as bad as any location in the SE including E NC. I've been regularly irrigating at my house lately based on this and because some of the soil feels like concrete. KSAV, the more inland airport station, has also been similar though not as dry with near 45% of normal. May so far has had a mere fraction of an inch so far with no big rains forecasted anytime soon along with middle 90s for highs later this week. This will only make things worse.
HunterRainLast365DrySinceEarlyNov051522.thumb.png.a7bccee4e74e5d0da9bcd53cc98ed46b.png84863873_Screenshot2022-05-15at22-00-22GeorgiaU.S.DroughtMonitor.thumb.png.4fa92ecf72c4ba889837d210e7d89dd9.png
 

It’s been noticeable as well with the lack of humidity. Pleasant weather, but with this heat the ground is going to dry up very quick.
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  • 2 weeks later...
1 hour ago, NorthHillsWx said:

Really getting worried about falling into a drought this summer. We’re sitting at 0.69” for the month and this hot weather has made it seem even drier than that. Hope storms this afternoon move west enough to get us some relief 

Yeah, thankfully the triad has been somewhat more fortunate in regards to rainfall this month, but it seems that a flash drought is perhaps underway. High temps and remarkably low RH, will dry out the soil quick, even here.

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