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Mid to Long Range Discussion ~ 2022


buckeyefan1
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On 2/14/2022 at 10:32 AM, Taylorsweather said:

Unless a Superstorm 93 materializes again (1 in a 100 year chance), I don't see snow outside Central and Western NC and VA.  People laugh at climo but we have climo for a reason.  It's the different between snow and 30 degrees in mid January and rain and 35 in mid February.  Yes, you can get a snowstorm down in SC in March but the setup has less and less margin for error the further we go from here.  That's climo in a nutshell.  I'm a snow lover but a realist as well.  The next two weeks do not show any snow here and then you're into March.  It is what it is.

 

 

and it's been that way for the entire 58 years of my life as well as, as long as records have been kept. 

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35 minutes ago, Tony Sisk said:

and it's been that way for the entire 58 years of my life as well as, as long as records have been kept. 

The effort this SE board puts into making winter something that it just isn't - and has never been - is amazing. And it happens every single year.

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17 minutes ago, Brick Tamland said:

Should we have a thread for the severe potential tomorrow? Sounds like we could have a busy day.

day2otlk_1730.gif

I wouldn't live in North or Central AL/MS without a basement anymore. Just absurd how many times they're under the gun annually anymore, I didn't even deal with this in the Midwest

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2 hours ago, nwohweather said:

I wouldn't live in North or Central AL/MS without a basement anymore. Just absurd how many times they're under the gun annually anymore, I didn't even deal with this in the Midwest

I'm in central Al. and we were hit by a long track EF3 in the last March outbreak with EF2 damage at our house.  We were lucky with minor damage, two houses down lost everything.  I'll tell you this, just having a basement isn't enough.  They had a CMU daylight basement and the tornado ripped it in half, only EF2 damage...  We're building a new house now and we're putting in a tornado room.  Reinforced concrete walls and ceiling, that's the only way to really protect yourself from a direct hit.

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1 minute ago, StantonParkHoya said:

That’s a cold rain pattern east of Boone in March. Need some purples.

Keep in mind that's a seven day mean, so lots of possibilities for deeper cold within that window. Of course, getting the cold and moisture to link up is the key (not counting on it) but the orientation of the cold is pretty ideal. Boone has lots of reason for optimism, and Climo makes any wintery precip a long shot for the Piedmont

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22 minutes ago, Sandstorm94 said:

A 1040 over ME is not going to cut it

Sent from my SM-S115DL using Tapatalk
 

There isn't one weenie soul taking what any model is saying today as verbatim. What everyone is (or should be) looking at are all the various models showing the possibility of wintertime fun during the same timeframe.

EDIT to say that I would love to have an extended spring where cold fronts keep the heat away for any length of time, and that usually leads to a better than average severe season. Fwiw, I won't be upset if mby doesn't see anything frozen :pimp: 

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