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Mid to Long Range Discussion ~ 2022


buckeyefan1
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26 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

I think the big issue with guidance is the current pattern we’re in. With no blocking and short waves flying around like mosquitoes I think guidance struggles and what you’re seeing mostly in mid-range model outputs has to do with seemingly subtle differences in timing in short range. Progressive patterns are notoriously hard to model and that’s why I think this season has had wild swings until the last minute

Kinda feels like we're being presented with 17 different ways to fail and then, the GFS, which shows us getting fringed and DC pummeled...Climo is fun

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1 hour ago, StantonParkHoya said:

Daffodils are really coming up, days are getting exponentially longer and brighter. You can tell the sun angle is progressing more overhead.

.....Spring is at the doorstep.

Had a low of 19 this morning 

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2 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

Just imagine the pattern for the last month if we had any semblance of blocking…

The polar jet is breaking records this year and with La Nina weakening the subtropical jet I guess the cool and dry forecasts panned out, but was still nice to see snow at least though. 

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7 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

Just imagine the pattern for the last month if we had any semblance of blocking…

yeah I just don't think we are going to get the job done here on any kind of make up event.

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From mike maze:  

Both the European and the GFS are still showing some snow on Sunday, which at this time should not stick. The timing on both shows it to be a morning event and so later in the weather should be mostly dry. Tune in at 10PM on Fox 50 to see how this evolves. @WRALWeather

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4 minutes ago, wncsnow said:

NAM and RDPS are laughing at us for thinking there is a threat

Lol drier than the Sahara. What a year to track models inside 100 hours

side note not that it matters much but icon looks like arse as well. Not really expecting the gfs to produce here at 0z. Hope I’m wrong but trend seems to reduce qpf

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2 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said:

RGEM wasn't to bad... didn't get to finish its run... the NAM however was awful.

I hate these kind of storms man. Geographically you and I get stuck in no man’s land because southeast crew could care less about mostly cloudy skies and most of the MA crew is all around DC northern VA area hours from us so it’s like we don’t have a happy medium

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