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New Years Storm System, Dec 30th - Jan 2nd

northpittweather

By northpittweather,
in Central/Western States

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Hoosier

Hoosier

Posted
Posted

18z NAM is pretty close to a fairly significant freezing rain event here late Wednesday into Thursday. Drops over .3 qpf with 2m temps around 33-34. Southeasterly flow is not particularly conducive for maintaining the zr type for an extended period, but the snowpack could play some role in keeping temps a shade cooler initially. Could be close.

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BeastFromTheEast

BeastFromTheEast

Posted
Posted

18z NAM is pretty close to a fairly significant freezing rain event here late Wednesday into Thursday. Drops over .3 qpf with 2m temps around 33-34. Southeasterly flow is not particularly conducive for maintaining the zr type for an extended period, but the snowpack could play some role in keeping temps a shade cooler initially. Could be close.

For freezing rain I usually look for low dewpoints (sub 30). Will be interesting to see if the models pick up on the snowpack and cool things a bit as we get closer.

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Chicago WX

Chicago WX

Posted
Posted

18z NAM is pretty close to a fairly significant freezing rain event here late Wednesday into Thursday. Drops over .3 qpf with 2m temps around 33-34. Southeasterly flow is not particularly conducive for maintaining the zr type for an extended period, but the snowpack could play some role in keeping temps a shade cooler initially. Could be close.

Yeah I think the effects of the snow pack will be interesting. To boot, it'll be a perfect time for LAF to be 33-34º while everything is glazing/icing over. ;)

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baroclinic_instability

baroclinic_instability

Posted
Posted

Back from Christmas, hope everyone had a Merry Christmas!

I feel totally lost glancing at weather again after not looking at a thing for nearly 4 days, but that said, the 2 wave solution all models have now don't surprise me. ECM hinted at this in the medium range, and if any of those monster GFS solutions would have verified, it would have resulted in one of the largest plains storms in the last 5, maybe 10 years.

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Indystorm

Indystorm

Posted
Posted

ECMWF eliminates the secondary which had been a prior concern. I think GFS will slow down the system slightly and intensify per 18z run. Looks like some zr, dense advection fog, then rain and possible t storms. Wonder how much of the snow will melt and affect temps in this situation as has been mentioned. Going to spend Thurs-Sat. will family in Highland IN for the holiday so will be eager to see what happens in Chi town area. Am thinking of the svr weather event of Jan. 7 2008 in ne IL and se WI and wondering how much warmer we'd be with this incoming system without snow cover.

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baroclinic_instability

baroclinic_instability

Posted
Posted

For freezing rain I usually look for low dewpoints (sub 30). Will be interesting to see if the models pick up on the snowpack and cool things a bit as we get closer.

Not too worried about a flat out freezing rain event. Road surfaces will be a bigger worry across much of the northern plains and into the OV as the prolonged deep freeze and general lack of insolation heading up to the event will result in glazed roads real fast even with temps 33-36 degrees.

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TheWeatherPimp

TheWeatherPimp

Posted
Posted

Not too worried about a flat out freezing rain event. Road surfaces will be a bigger worry across much of the northern plains and into the OV as the prolonged deep freeze and general lack of insolation heading up to the event will result in glazed roads real fast even with temps 33-36 degrees.

I would have to agree and with the event starting Wednesday Night across the Ohio Valley, the lack of sunshine won't help when it comes to any precipitation freezing on roadways. Could get messy for a while before things improve on Thursday.

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baroclinic_instability

baroclinic_instability

Posted
Posted

Looking things over the last couple hours, I doubt the GFS verifies with its secondary strong shortwave ejecting into the plains as quickly as it does. All guidance now (NAM/CMC/ECM) show much of the jet energy hanging up back into the intermountain W with a weak secondary shortwave ejecting into the plains. The second wave won't be energetic enough to incite deep cyclogenesis until this thing hauls near the international border/Canada. GFS is trying to eject too much energy too quickly into the plains in this amplified pattern. Almost doesn't even look real. What a waste this storm will eventually be.

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cyclone77

cyclone77

Posted
Posted

Kinda nice there is nothing winter to track for a good 10+ days. Much needed break for me and can hopefully find a few windows to ice fish in warm weather.

That is true. It's been pretty hectic the last 3+ weeks. I guess it will be nice in a way not having to spend so much time online. The pattern looks pretty benign through the first week of Jan. Hopefully we can get the clippers going again, since this immediate area never seems to benefit from southwest flow systems anymore. That's probably why we haven't had an official 12" storm since '99.

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baroclinic_instability

baroclinic_instability

Posted
Posted

ECM looks similar to the GFS except a tad W with a slightly tighter gradient in the cold air.

post-999-0-75295000-1293517269.gif

post-999-0-01748100-1293517283.gif

Could eek out a blizzard warning in parts of eastern ND/NW Minn, but the quick movement of this storm and light qpf may limit that. Still, this storm is a bit of a disappointment when it had decent potential.

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Srain

Srain

Posted
Posted

PRELIMINARY EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD

853 AM EST TUE DEC 28 2010

VALID 12Z SAT JAN 01 2011 - 12Z TUE JAN 04 2011

CURRENT MODELS SHOW EXCELLENT LONGWAVE AGREEMENT DAYS 3-7 WITH THE

POSITIVE PHASE OF THE NORTH ATLANTIC OSCILLATION STRENGTHENING

WHICH SHOULD STEER THE CUT-OFF LOW OVER THE ROCKIES EARLY IN THE

PERIOD TOWARD ONTARIO/QUEBEC...RESULTING IN A POSITIVELY-TILTED

LONGWAVE TROUGH EXTENDING INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. ALTHOUGH THE

00-06Z GFS ARE SUSPICIOUSLY FAST AND OUT OF SYNC WITH OTHER

GUIDANCE WITH THE BASE OF THE CUT-OFF LOW PROGRESSING THROUGH NEW

ENGLAND. OTHERWISE...THE MAIN MODELING DIFFERENCES CONCERN THE

SPLITTING FLOW REACHING WESTERN NORTH AMERICA BY DAYS 4/5 WITH

NEARLY ALL GUIDANCE EXCEPT THE 00-06Z GFS AND MOST OF ITS ENSEMBLE

MEMBERS (BOTH 00Z AND 06Z RUNS) CONSIDERABLY MORE PROGRESSIVE AND

AT TIMES OUT OF PHASE WITH THE 00Z ECMWF/UKMET/CANADIAN. OF

PARTICULAR IMPORTANCE IS A SECONDARY CUT-OFF LOW CONSTITUTING THE

SOUTHERN STREAM WHICH STANDS TO BRING ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION TO

PARTS OF CALIFORNIA. THE EXACT POSITION/TIMING OF THE LOW ARE

DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT DUE TO THE INCREASING SOLUTION SPREAD...AND

FOR NOW HAVE CHOSEN AN INTERMEDIATE SOLUTION WHICH CONSIDERS ALL

NON-NCEP GUIDANCE...OR ON AVERAGE...ABOUT MIDWAY BETWEEN THE

ECMWF/CANADIAN. THUS...THE UPDATED PRESSURES/FRONTS BLENDED

NON-NCEP GUIDANCE...WITH THE GFS AND GEFS MEAN NOT USED.

JAMES

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