Dec. 10-11 Severe Weather

[Hoosier]

This is the first EF-4 in Kentucky since 3/2/2012, so almost 10 years ago.

[Hoosier]

8 minutes ago, McHenrySnow said:

I knew they'd never go EF-5. 

Then why didn't you post that sometime in the past few days?  

You literally had no comment on the rating until now.  Not even a quick drive by post.  So your thoughts after the fact don't mean much.

[Stebo]

6 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

Then why didn't you post that sometime in the past few days?  

You literally had no comment on the rating until now.  Not even a quick drive by post.  So your thoughts after the fact don't mean much.

"meteorologist"

As for this rating if this isn't a 5 then I don't know how you achieve one. It is literally impossible considering how catastrophic the damage has been with this tornado.

[Buckeye05]

Don’t expect any further upgrades. The days of EF5 ratings are over I’d say. For me, this one was the last nail in the coffin for that level of rating being ever being applied again. The part of the meteorological community that is responsible for rating application has pushed the concept of EF5 damage to unobtainable levels. 

[Amped]

36 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said:

For anyone following the information Tim Marshall has been providing the past few days, a non-EF-5 rating should not come as a surprise.


.

Apparently every building in western Kentucky is built like crap.

[sigerson]

38 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said:

For anyone following the information Tim Marshall has been providing the past few days, a non-EF-5 rating should not come as a surprise.

Where can I read what Tim's been writing?

[McHenrySnow]

16 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

Then why didn't you post that sometime in the past few days?  

You literally had no comment on the rating until now.  Not even a quick drive by post.  So your thoughts after the fact don't mean much.

I rarely post on here because everyone is an asshole. 

[Buckeye05]

Just imagine if the 4/27/2011 surveys were done with the same degree of conservatism that is applied today. There’d be nothing higher than EF4….

[McHenrySnow]

And I wasn't taking credit for shit - it was said in a sarcastic way, but y'all are too busy being assholes to notice or engage like decent humans. 

[McHenrySnow]

1 minute ago, Buckeye05 said:

Just imagine if the 4/27/2011 surveys were done with the same degree of conservatism that is applied today. There’d be nothing higher than EF4….

Pretty much my point. Clearly should have spelled this out for some people. 

[luckyweather]

"meteorologist"
As for this rating if this isn't a 5 then I don't know how you achieve one. It is literally impossible considering how catastrophic the damage has been with this tornado.

The Doppler on wheels fleet doesn’t really leave the plains and isn’t broken out for every event. May end up being that the current era of ef5’s are just storms with a Dow there to get a good wind measurement. Not condoning that as that’s going to just be a skewed/biased dataset, but it seems to be the way.

[cheese007]

5 minutes ago, luckyweather said:

The Doppler on wheels fleet doesn’t really leave the plains and isn’t broken out for every event. May end up being that the current era of ef5’s are just storms with a Dow there to get a good wind measurement. Not condoning that as that’s going to just be a skewed/biased dataset, but it seems to be the way.

Either that or tornadoes that happen to hit high-rises and do major damage

[Stebo]

13 minutes ago, cheese007 said:

Either that or tornadoes that happen to hit high-rises and do major damage

This did major damage. High-rises shouldn't be the benchmark when you almost never have downtowns hit.

[CheeselandSkies]

24 minutes ago, McHenrySnow said:

I rarely post on here because everyone is an asshole. 

 

[Stebo]

24 minutes ago, McHenrySnow said:

And I wasn't taking credit for shit - it was said in a sarcastic way, but y'all are too busy being assholes to notice or engage like decent humans. 

Just stop, if you are actually a met you are making us all look bad with your posts.

[andyhb]

You know, for someone who is calling everyone else assholes, you're sure doing a lot of mud flinging yourself.

[Tezeta]

This guy should post in OT

[VOLtage]

Kind of surprised it wasn't rated an EF-5 with that kind of catastrophic damage.

Edit: It is preliminary, so it might get upgraded.

[Hoosier]

I would like to see more usage of non-traditional damage indicators in the future.  I know it's not as easy as buildings and what not, but it would fill in some gaps IF it could be done reliably.  Fujita rated the Plainfield, IL tornado as F5 based on extreme corn damage, not structural damage.

Weren't they working on some kind of update to the EF scale, or am I mistaken?

[brianc33710]

1 hour ago, Calderon said:

Vilonia, AR would like to enter the chat. 

Wasn't that just an EF2, albeit 1.6 mi wide?

[CheeselandSkies]

1 minute ago, brianc33710 said:

Wasn't that just an EF2, albeit 1.6 mi wide?

You're thinking of 4/25/11...

4/27/14 is the date you're looking for.

[Calderon]

If it stays as EF4, surely there need to be some questions as to why Tim Marshall seems to be the common denominator in some of these cases where the appearance is that he view is taken as the gospel. 

[brianc33710]

Would these "underratings" relate to insurance companies and/or aid groups that dole out more aid for 5s than 4s & dont want to give out more money? Im being serious, not a smart ass.....just want to make sure this comment isnt read the wrong way.

[Powerball]

1 minute ago, brianc33710 said:

Would these "underratings" relate to insurance companies and/or aid groups that dole out more aid for 5s than 4s & dont want to give out more money? Im being serious, not a smart ass.....just want to make sure this comment isnt read the wrong way.

That certainly makes for a good conspiracy theory...

[Wmsptwx]

55 minutes ago, Buckeye05 said:

Don’t expect any further upgrades. The days of EF5 ratings are over I’d say. For me, this one was the last nail in the coffin for that level of rating being ever being applied again. The part of the meteorological community that is responsible for rating application has pushed the concept of EF5 damage to unobtainable levels. 

So so so true. It’s not happening.

[notsomadscientist]

The toxicity I've seen everywhere on social media over an EF rating while dozens are dead and thousands have had their lives changed is disgusting. 

[Stebo]

3 minutes ago, notsomadscientist said:

The toxicity I've seen everywhere on social media over an EF rating while dozens are dead and thousands have had their lives changed is disgusting. 

Yes mr. 10 posts, everyone talking about the rating totally doesn't care about those who have been killed or injured. It is totally that.

[zinski1990]

Seems like we're never going to get an ef5 again. Its like they went full on conservative mode after 2011 and 13

[Buckeye05]

7 minutes ago, notsomadscientist said:

The toxicity I've seen everywhere on social media over an EF rating while dozens are dead and thousands have had their lives changed is disgusting. 

Concerns over both aren’t mutually exclusive. The EF scale has been misused since 2014, causing at artificial EF5 drought that has been ongoing. This was an opportunity to break the pattern and re-establish a reasonable approach to rating, but it’s been squandered. You not understanding that does not deligitimize our frustration at the situation.

[DanLarsen34]

Let’s remember, this survey is currently preliminary. That means further inspection and discussion could lead to an EF-5 rating. 
 

That said, if this doesn’t end up there in the coming weeks, I agree with the sentiment that has been expressed in this thread. Basically, there’s almost no areas out there that have structures built up to the standard that would enable an EF-5 rating, and contextual evidence beyond that is just not seen as reliable enough to give a rating beyond that, even if it should be IMHO.