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Met Winter 2021 - 2022 Banter


HoarfrostHubb
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Just now, CoastalWx said:

Then again you would think intel and other military experts would already know this so who knows? 

The other thing is, what do we really know?  I don't exactly trust all the rah rah Ukrainian reports but that's to be expected.  The Russians aren't really giving any reports 

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3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Then again you would think intel and other military experts would already know this so who knows? 

Yea, definitely. I haven’t seen any expert mention this so I’m speculating from afar. It just smells fishy they’d have soldiers not knowing their mission and not understanding why they were there, tanks breaking down, etc. it makes sense though strategically to not send the best in round 1 to see if you can cheaply win this. 

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1 minute ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

No. It’s why we refuse to do a no fly zone or put troops on the ground there. We’re trying to de-escalate as much as we can even though Putin claims we are aggressors lol.

That's also one of the reasons Biden didn't raise our level of alert.  That also makes Putin look even more like an aggressor

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38 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Yeah, while everyone is cheering about the mishaps and half ass approach to this battle that Russia has taken...deep down I'm concerned there's other stuff brewing. I find it hard to believe that approach will continue.

This keeps occurring to me ... ^^^

I wrote a long op ed a while ago, that this could all be a prelude to some other intention - among other aspects.

What that is, ...I believe fully that what ever the sane world believes is the most likely extreme of all this, the demagogue's vision is outside that boundary ;)

I don't think people that say there's no chance for a nuclear realization of this ... fully recognize what the World is dealing with here. 

I fantasize best course is to allow his victory. Then, stage an aft summit with the intention of recognizing the prominence of the redrawn Russia and that size of the dick in charge... given him his narci-love,  all the while ... a set up while there that takes him and his kakistocratic rampart of enablers, quietly out the back door.  

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21 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Right? I mean they can’t be this bad.

A lot of the stuff on Twitter about blown up Russian convoys and troops surrendering/running away are totally unverifiable. There are a ton of Twitter accounts just posting random things about the war who are being boosted by retweets. Russia is actually being super quiet. Not entirely sure why, really. Ukraine is totally winning the propaganda war at least. 

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14 minutes ago, NorEastermass128 said:

Nope.  

 

11 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

No. It’s why we refuse to do a no fly zone or put troops on the ground there. We’re trying to de-escalate as much as we can even though Putin claims we are the aggressors lol.

Same, but still scary.

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13 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Yea, definitely. I haven’t seen any expert mention this so I’m speculating from afar. It just smells fishy they’d have soldiers not knowing their mission and not understanding why they were there, tanks breaking down, etc. it makes sense though strategically to not send the best in round 1 to see if you can cheaply win this. 

That’s exactly why the whole war is fishy and meme-like and bullshitty. You don’t send your scrubs in first in war. Soviet Deep Battle doctrine has them spilling in later as reserves

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1 hour ago, NorEastermass128 said:

Nope.  

The problem is, "thinking" is subjective to the wiring doing the thoughts.

One side of this mess,  may not think like the overwhelming majority of the world.   If there are 7.5 billion people in the world, 7,999,999,996 people may think in a way that would not allow that to happen, when it only takes 4 people on a Russian sub to unleash its full arsenal.

It is not impossible that we are dealing with a rogue situation that is far more intractable

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5 minutes ago, Tolland Death Band said:

That’s exactly why the whole war is fishy and meme-like and bullshitty. You don’t send your scrubs in first in war. Soviet Deep Battle doctrine has them spilling in later as reserves

I wonder how many of these random Twitter accounts are bots or paid shills? Most people can’t even tell the Ukrainian and Russian forces apart from a picture. Both sides are using irregular and militia forces too which makes it difficult. Some of the Russian forces are probably Ukrainian citizens from the breakaway regions too, giving this a civil war aspect. 

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4 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

The problem is, "thinking" is subjective to the wiring doing the thoughts.

One side of this mess,  may not think like the overwhelming majority of the world.   If there are 7.5 billion people in the world, 7,500,000,996 people may think in a way that would not allow that to happen, when it only takes 4 people on a Russian sub to unleash its full arsenal.

Oh yea, it is not a zero chance scenario. Only if they have a death wish for themselves and Moscow though.

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14 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

I’m just having trouble seeing the long game here.   (Assuming it doesn’t end in mushroom clouds ). 1 year, 5 years, 10.     Putin is crafty and patient.   I don’t see how his side benefits long term.  

Unless you buy into some reports that he’s become ill or had some kind of mental breakdown. And that’s a terrifying prospect especially for someone already in their twilight years with ample nuclear capability 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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24 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

The problem is, "thinking" is subjective to the wiring doing the thoughts.

One side of this mess,  may not think like the overwhelming majority of the world.   If there are 7.5 billion people in the world, 7,500,000,996 people may think in a way that would not allow that to happen, when it only takes 4 people on a Russian sub to unleash its full arsenal.

It is not impossible that we are dealing with a rogue situation that is far more intractable

That is precisely my fear.

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3 minutes ago, Cyclone-68 said:

I don’t care who knows it. I’m very nervous about how all of this is going to end. Probably shouldn’t have read The Stand very recently too though 

Read some Tom Clancy novels like Red Storm Rising or The Hunt for Red October.  We always avoid nuclear annihilation and the US comes out on top.  Real feel good stories 

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I mean… is there anything Putin values more than Russia? He has to know if he fires a nuke, Russia is going to be turned into a nuclear parking lot. Would seem kind of short sighted, but he does seem unhinged, so who knows.

Dont look at maps that project nuclear target sites in the US; the northeastern US would be porked with a capital P

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I think the threat of nuclear war was much closer at times during the Cold War. US and Soviet forces in some cases were directly shooting at each other in the skies over Korea and Vietnam, for example. The Cuban Missile Crisis was viewed as an existential threat by the US at the time, not unlike how the Russians supposedly feel about Ukraine joining NATO.

People running around scared that Putin will nuke us is pretty much exactly why he made those threats. In his mind, it strengthens his position at the bargaining table. Ukraine agrees to a "peace deal" and the nuclear threats ease, is the concept. That and the oil are the two real bargaining chips Russia has with the West. Kim does the same thing with his nukes/missile launches to gain concessions from the West. Old play from the book.

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2 minutes ago, ROOSTA said:

Bet your last dollar there are lasers in space that would shoot down ICBM's inbound. Combine that with the Javelins the air defense for the US is almost impenetrable.
A ground detonation of a neutron bomb would kill all inhabitants for miles around yet leaving structures intact. Scary stuff.
   

Hate to burst your bubble, but a certain number of warheads from the many MIRVs that are launched are guaranteed to get through, even if we had space laser defenses (which we don't). It's part of why MAD works and has for a long time. The various nuclear treaties over the years have been designed to ease tensions by allowing the signatory nations to know the capabilities of the others. MAD breaks down if one party gains an insurmountable advantage over the others.

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