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November 28-29 Storm Threat


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Fun times incoming, especially north woods

000
FXUS61 KCAR 260547
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
1247 AM EST Fri Nov 26 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure approaches from the west tonight and Friday. The
intensifying low then lifts north across the Maritimes Friday
night through Sunday. Another low crosses the Gulf of Maine and
exits across the Maritimes Monday. Low pressure will approach
from the west later Tuesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
1245 am update...
Quick update to temps and dwpts. No other chgs needed.

Prev Fcst: Clear skies and high pressure over the area will
give way to increasing clouds overnight. In the very dry air
mass, temperatures will drop off initially this evening before
the clouds increase and temps will remain somewhat steady
overnight. Upper level heights fall all night and temperatures
aloft cool through the night into Friday. Precipitation will
reach the North Woods by late night and will be in the form of
snow and freezing rain. The trend for Friday will be continued
cooling aloft. Therefore, freezing rain is not a big threat and
have just a trace to a couple hundredths of an inch in the
forecast on Friday morning. The big question is how fast the
column cools such that rain changes to snow through both wet
bulbing and dynamic cooling. There`s no warm advection working
against it this time. The initial air mass below H850 is very
dry. It shouldn`t take too long to cool the column below H850
towards 0C once moderate precip starts, with a somewhat
isothermal profile below H850 resulting by Friday afternoon.
Thus the usual critical thickness values could be misleading as
the day unfolds and the snow will be heavy and wet. Snow ratios
will increase through the afternoon towards 10 to one by
evening. Have leaned towards the colder NAM sfc temps on Friday
with highs not too far above freezing except on the coast. The
rain/snow line will rapidly progress southward towards Bangor
and Downeast in the mid to late afternoon and evening.

Although we have amounts up to 4 inches during Friday in the
North Woods and around 2 inches for most areas north of Bangor,
Hancock County and Washington County, still have some concerns
that we may need to make increases on Friday afternoon. The
synoptics are impressive and quite dynamic. A potent digging
upper trough in the eastern Great Lakes region quickly goes
negative tilt and then closes off on Friday. In response,
surface cyclogenesis occurs in the western Gulf of Maine and the
low rapidly deepens in the afternoon as it tracks along the
coast towards Eastport. A broad H700 low moves over the forecast
area in the afternoon accompanied by increasing thermal
gradients in the mid levels, divergence above H500/H300 and the
exit region of an upper jet. Therefore, while we`ve increased
QPF on this forecast cycle for Friday afternoon, it may need
another bump up tonight. All guidance shows a clear pattern of
a broad area of heavier precip developing in the afternoon. This
will occur in conjunction with the enhanced lift on the
cyclonic side of the trough.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Have transitioned the Winter Storm Watch to a Winter Storm
Warning across northern portions of Aroostook, Somerset and
Piscataquis counties through Friday into Saturday evening. Based
on the duration of the event and expected snow totals, have
issued the Winter Storm Warning partially due to holiday travel
and this being the first major snow of the season for most
areas. Have also issued a Winter Storm Watch for central
Piscataquis, southeast Aroostook, northern Washington and
northern/central Penobscot counties from Friday afternoon into
Saturday evening. An intensifying surface low located along the
Maine coast early Friday night, will lift north across New
Brunswick overnight along with a closed upper low. However,
whether the track is closer to the Maine/New Brunswick border,
or more across central New Brunswick, is still uncertain. Warmer
air being drawn westward from the Maritimes could support a
snow/rain mix across northeast areas early Friday night.
Elsewhere across the forecast area, based on critical
thicknesses, expect snow across northwest areas early Friday
night with rain/snow Downeast. Cold air advection with the
deepening low will allow a transition to snow across all of the
forecast area early Friday night. Models indicate an area of
focused lift and Q-vector convergence lifting north across the
forecast area Friday night with a developing deformation zone
which will help support precipitation. Recent model runs have
indicated a stronger deformation zone across eastern portions of
the forecast area with heavier snow possible which is the
reason for the new more southern Winter Storm Watch.
Uncertainties with precipitation totals Friday night still
persist based on uncertainties with the track of the surface
low and location of the deformation zone. The vertically stacked
system tracks north to the Gaspe Peninsula Saturday. The most
persistent snows Saturday will occur across northern and central
areas with the deformation zone lifting north. Across Downeast
areas, early snow will taper to snow showers during the
afternoon. Additional snow accumulations are expected Saturday,
with the greater amounts across the north and mountains. The
system lifts toward Labrador Saturday night with snow tapering
to snow showers across northern and central areas. Across
Downeast areas, expect mostly cloudy skies with a slight chance
of snow showers early Saturday night, then decreasing clouds
overnight. Storm total snow accumulations through Saturday night
are expected to range from 7 to 10 inches across northern
areas, with 4 to 7 inches across central areas and 3 to 5 inches
Downeast. The system lifts north across Labrador Sunday, while
high pressure builds toward the region. Expect mostly
cloudy/partly sunny skies across the north and mountains Sunday
along with a slight chance of early snow showers, with
partly/mostly sunny skies Downeast. Temperatures will be at
below normal levels Saturday/Sunday.

 

You guys are going to get clobbered severely this winter. I mean CLOBBERED. Like in 2014-2015.

 

--------------------------------

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7 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Now things have changed . Hopefully not a sign of how the winter goes . Eeerily reminiscent of last year when models lost almost every storm after showing big hits. 

This is normal. Storms aren’t a lock days out. Still maybe time for something better, but looks like poop. 

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2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

It's interesting to me that the nrn s/w really digs, but the preceding s/w sort of screws up the dynamics of the nrn stream s/w because it induces weak cycloegenesis well east.  We'll see what 12z brings.

That is more correctable than the N stream not digging.

I agree to give it through 12z, but getting to be a long shot at this point...too bad, above climo shot for a nice Novie snowfall just hasn't panned out....yet.

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3 hours ago, moneypitmike said:

00EC and 06GFS and 06NAM say to go back to bed for Sun/Mon.

But......congrats Mitch, Hubb and ORH for tonight.

sn10_acc.us_ne.png

 

GYX a bit less enthusiastic.  Glad it's for a small and early event, but seeing the higher forecast to the west, north and east fits with last winter, when central/southern Maine fared worse compared to climo than almost anywhere else in the Northeast.

Expected Snowfall - Official NWS Forecast

Point Range
Expected Snowfall - Official NWS Forecast
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