MJO812 Posted December 17, 2021 Author Share Posted December 17, 2021 Interesting trends with the 22nd storm A ridge tries to build in the west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 17, 2021 Author Share Posted December 17, 2021 Mood Christmas snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 17, 2021 Author Share Posted December 17, 2021 The NAO block is doing its thing on the gfs. Suppressing 2 lows near Christmas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted December 17, 2021 Share Posted December 17, 2021 16 minutes ago, MJO812 said: The NAO block is doing its thing on the gfs. Suppressing 2 lows near Christmas. Still a "work in progress" IMO plenty of potential beginning next week ! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted December 17, 2021 Share Posted December 17, 2021 19 minutes ago, MJO812 said: The NAO block is doing its thing on the gfs. Suppressing 2 lows near Christmas. Thats the problem with a block if it's too strong and in the wrong position suppression is a problem.... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 17, 2021 Author Share Posted December 17, 2021 1 minute ago, NEG NAO said: Thats the problem with a block if it's too strong and in the wrong position suppression is a problem.... Yep but I don't think that will be an issue with the negative pna. That should pump up the ridge . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 17, 2021 Share Posted December 17, 2021 PNA is the problem. The streams won't phase unless we see a more positive PNA. Hopefully it keeps trending more favorably Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 17, 2021 Author Share Posted December 17, 2021 2 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: PNA is the problem. The streams won't phase unless we see a more positive PNA. Hopefully it keeps trending more favorably We don't need a phased storm to get snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North and West Posted December 17, 2021 Share Posted December 17, 2021 Is there a cheat sheet available for the regular folk among us for what all of these terms mean? (e.g., MJO, what does it spell out, one sentence descriptor). 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted December 17, 2021 Share Posted December 17, 2021 28 minutes ago, North and West said: Is there a cheat sheet available for the regular folk among us for what all of these terms mean? (e.g., MJO, what does it spell out, one sentence descriptor) . We have so many of these indices and indicators that it seems like a zoo of nonsense now. This is like where chemistry was before there was a periodic table or particle physics was before we knew about quarks. All of this needs to be reduced to 3 or 4 primary indicators, I'm sure the rest just emerge from the basic 3 or 4, and use the primary ones to predict everything. It's like with these weather models there are way too many of them, just shut down the worst performing ones and go with the 3-4 best ones. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North and West Posted December 17, 2021 Share Posted December 17, 2021 We have so many of these indices and indicators that it seems like a zoo of nonsense now. This is like where chemistry was before there was a periodic table or particle physics was before we knew about quarks. All of this needs to be reduced to 3 or 4 primary indicators, I'm sure the rest just emerge from the basic 3 or 4, and use the primary ones to predict everything. It's like with these weather models there are way too many of them, just shut down the worst performing ones and go with the 3-4 best ones. Thanks. I mean this as a hobbyist (some of my best friends are meteorologists! No, really)… half of this stuff sounds like it cancels out the other… MJO or PNA is good but then bad some days when it’s coupled with La Niña or El Niño… (I’m making that up, but I can’t keep up with when it’s good or bad)For instance, I love baseball, but lay people don’t understand OPS or WAR. We need to dumb it down for the simple folk like yours truly.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nyrangers1022 Posted December 17, 2021 Share Posted December 17, 2021 6 hours ago, MJO812 said: We don't need a phased storm to get snow. I honestly think the nickel and dime storms throughout the year, with 40 degrees highs in between are way better than KU storms and highs in the teens after Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted December 17, 2021 Share Posted December 17, 2021 The way I view it, the la nina is driving the indices. The MJO mixes that up. Not always, but has the ability. So you can get a better sense of where things could be headed. This is a great graphic. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lee59 Posted December 17, 2021 Share Posted December 17, 2021 19 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: We have so many of these indices and indicators that it seems like a zoo of nonsense now. This is like where chemistry was before there was a periodic table or particle physics was before we knew about quarks. All of this needs to be reduced to 3 or 4 primary indicators, I'm sure the rest just emerge from the basic 3 or 4, and use the primary ones to predict everything. It's like with these weather models there are way too many of them, just shut down the worst performing ones and go with the 3-4 best ones. Good point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lee59 Posted December 17, 2021 Share Posted December 17, 2021 Storm late next week seems to be getting more interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted December 17, 2021 Share Posted December 17, 2021 I thought he wanted one sentence J/k 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted December 17, 2021 Share Posted December 17, 2021 The next 8 days are averaging 40degs.(35/45), or +5>>>+2 nowadays. Reached 61 here yesterday. Today: 58-60 early-then falling, wind w. to n. and breezy. Cloudy by evening. Down to 42 by tomorrow AM. GFS cold with massive snowstorm 27th-30th. Hope Sanit. is still functional then, due to u know what. 57*(55%RH) here at 6am/7am.{was 58* at Midnite and briefly 56* at 6:30am.} 58* at Noon. 60* at 2:30pm. 54* at 6pm. 50* at 9pm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted December 17, 2021 Share Posted December 17, 2021 Morning thoughts… Today will be partly cloudy and very mild. High temperatures will likely reach the upper 50s and perhaps lower 60s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 59° Newark: 60° Philadelphia: 60° Normals: New York City: 30-Year: 43.8°; 15-Year: 44.6° Newark: 30-Year: 44.3°; 15-Year: 45.2° Philadelphia: 30-Year: 45.5°; 15-Year: 46.5° The unseasonably mild weather will continue into the start of the weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 17, 2021 Share Posted December 17, 2021 This was our 5th warmest first half of December on record. 7 out of the top 10 warmest years have occurred since the late 90s. It’s a reflection of how December is one of our fastest warming winter months. Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NYClick column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Ending Date Mean Avg Temperature Dec 1 to Dec 16 Missing Count 1 2015-12-16 51.8 0 2 2001-12-16 50.4 0 3 1998-12-16 50.3 0 4 1953-12-16 46.4 0 5 2021-12-16 46.2 0 6 2011-12-16 45.3 0 7 2012-12-16 45.0 0 8 1999-12-16 44.7 0 - 1891-12-16 44.7 0 9 1951-12-16 44.6 2 10 1879-12-16 44.5 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted December 17, 2021 Share Posted December 17, 2021 48 minutes ago, bluewave said: I try to simplify it to make it easier to understand. -PNA with the current wavelengths equals overpowering Pacific Jet. This fast Pacific flow results in a group of storm tracks. It has been record dry here since early November. The primary storm tracks have been cutter, hugger, and southern stream suppression. The cutting storms haven’t had much moisture since the flow has been so fast. Hugging storms haven’t had time to amplify so they haven’t given us much rain also. The southern stream gets suppressed due to the overpowering Northern Jet. The -NAO going negative presents its own set of challenges when we have a -PNA unless we get March wavelengths. The flow is still fast so storms stay weak. Over-amplified storms can still cut with - NAO since -PNA will pump the SE Ridge. The storm going to our north tomorrow with the -NAO is an example of this. Weaker storms due to the fast Pacific flow can get sheared out. Sometimes we get too much confluence near New England and the moisture goes south. So we really need to thread the needle. The hope is that one of these overrunning events before the month is out can take a Goldilocks -I-78 overrunning frozen zone. But you can see how models have this track one run and lose it the next run. The fast Pacific Jet creates challenges for this track. A +PNA is good since it causes the fast Pacific Jet to buckle opening the door for more interesting winter storm types. That +PNA fantasy in the long range yesterday didn’t take long to disappear as expected. Back to deep -PNA as far as the eye can see….. 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 17, 2021 Share Posted December 17, 2021 16 minutes ago, snowman19 said: That +PNA fantasy in the long range yesterday didn’t take long to disappear as expected. Back to deep -PNA as far as the eye can see….. There are a few things here. None of the models have been showing what we think of as a traditional +PNA at any time within the effective 2 week period. We had a few attempts to boost heights near California near the end of those 15 day runs. But that keeps getting pushed back. Yesterdays extended runs beyond day 15 had this hint of rising heights near California. But this is beyond the effective range. Speculation then turned to why models were showing these height rises. The MJO going into phase 7 with +AAM was one possibility. I think we all know that any model runs beyond day 15 are fickle. Plus any MJO related effect could be short lived after the MJO wave weakens. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LoboLeader1 Posted December 17, 2021 Share Posted December 17, 2021 55 here as of 7:45 this AM, overnite low of 51. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 17, 2021 Author Share Posted December 17, 2021 21 minutes ago, snowman19 said: That +PNA fantasy in the long range yesterday didn’t take long to disappear as expected. Back to deep -PNA as far as the eye can see….. Who cares as long as the AO and NAO cooperate. We just have to deal with it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 17, 2021 Share Posted December 17, 2021 The latest extended GEFS runs may set the record for longest MJO phase 7 this time of year. It’s still holding the convection east Australia right into January. Very extreme marine heatwave in those areas. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted December 17, 2021 Share Posted December 17, 2021 2 minutes ago, bluewave said: The latest extended GEFS runs may set the record for longest MJO phase 7 this time of year. It’s still holding the convection east Australia right into January. Very extreme marine heatwave in those areas. Good news for us as phase 7 is decent for smaller events. Will be interesting to see how long this stays in 8 if at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted December 17, 2021 Share Posted December 17, 2021 1 minute ago, bluewave said: The latest extended GEFS runs may set the record for longest MJO phase 7 this time of year. It’s still holding the convection east Australia right into January. Very extreme marine heatwave in those areas. I know no one wants to hear this, but there’s a chance it doesn’t propagate into phases 8, 1 and either dies out or loops back into 6. I remember a winter not that long ago where the models kept plowing the MJO into phase 8, 1 from November until March and it didn’t happen once, it kept dying in 7 and never advanced…. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 17, 2021 Author Share Posted December 17, 2021 3 minutes ago, snowman19 said: I know no one wants to hear this, but there’s a chance it doesn’t propagate into phases 8, 1 and either dies out or loops back into 6. I remember a winter not that long ago where the models kept plowing the MJO into phase 8, 1 from November until March and it didn’t happen once, it kept dying in 7 and never advanced…. The typhoon is messing around with the MJO. Latest GEFS takes it into 8 but 7 isn't bad in January . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 17, 2021 Share Posted December 17, 2021 This was one of the best papers to come out in recent years. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted December 17, 2021 Share Posted December 17, 2021 2 minutes ago, MJO812 said: The typhoon is messing around with the MJO. Latest GEFS takes it into 8 but 7 isn't bad in January . Correct that phase 7 isn’t bad in January, not great but not bad, however, the concerns that it doesn’t advance into phase 8 are definitely valid Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted December 17, 2021 Share Posted December 17, 2021 Just now, bluewave said: This was one of the best papers to come out in recent years. 3 minutes ago, MJO812 said: The typhoon is messing around with the MJO. Latest GEFS takes it into 8 but 7 isn't bad in January . I will take extended phase 7 all day. Cooler temps and minor snow events. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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